Company's unlikely that I'll get a secret if I say that the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko will remain. This conclusion is not only predispose general considerations, but also the course of the election campaign: the ratings show quite tolerant of, say, the level of electoral support for his opponents, the manifestation of November 24 — rehearsal Square, demonstrated the limitations of mobilized street support alternatives.
So the question is, in my view, is not whether there will Lukashenko and
Lukashenko remains, what changes Belarus, thanks to the campaign.
One of the possible consequences — a return to dialogue, rapprochement with Europe, which has been severely curtailed in the early this year. It's happening now, it is enough to recall the visits to Minsk Lithuanian president and the foreign ministers of Germany and Poland.
In my view, the present moment — lucky for an agenda of dialogue from Europe, as a matter of Russia's position. There is a clear pattern: the more pressure on the part of Russia — a fortiori Official Minsk inclined to do liberalizatsyynyya gestures. Thus, not more than gestures, political Potemkin village. I agree with the opponents of Realpolitik that no real democracy if Lukashenko can not occur. I agree with them that the Potemkin villages, some liberalizatsyynyya steps padrumyanvanne muzzle national authorities — it is worse than a demonstration of it in all its natural beauty.
What will be the election of a sense of the internal situation? Elections, even the most unfree and unfair — a form of a national debate about the further course of the country.
And I think that one of the themes of the debate was Russia, its importance for
Belarus. Because it is not about academic discussion, but about politics, it is very important what will take place (or to be delivered) Nyaklyayeu and Gregory Kastusyou.
I do not exclude the scheme is very beautiful and logical return Milinkevich. Net scenario is that Kastusyou ranked second, gaining less than Milinkevich in 2006. Russia demonstrates that any person of considerable force in the Belarusian opposition here is — Milinkevich + Kastusyou that there is little argumentsik for political reconciliation with Moscow Lukashenka. But — for a huge return Milinkevich all in white. He did not lose this election. And then it becomes possible to project that sounded Peter Martsau a couple of years ago — the formation praevrapeyskay, tolerant, loyal to a certain extent the party. In this case, what is important — the anti-Russian, but can also be tolerated. And everyone is happy: Europe gets some additional partner, the engine in the party, not only at the level of the corridors of power and interests, but also to society and ideals.
This is basically beneficial for Lukashenko. And not only the loyalty of such education, but also because it is in a certain sense, doomed to exist in the ghetto, it will not come out even theoretically electoral platform Lukashenko, it will always be persona non grata in Moscow. Lukashenko's not that good.
Can break this script? In theory, yes. Almost the first time in this election, we have heard from the opposition party rhetoric if not
pro-Russian, the one that denies the old familiar rhetoric.
This is, in general, may have a sequel. Returning to the scheme listed Martsau Peter, voiced seems to be in 2007, you can prevent some of this segment of the opposition coalition with many people in government and outside its borders, interests, ideas or feelings associated with Russia. And then quite possibly raising the "Russian" party — if not an alternative, then at least some organized force. Then in 2007 Martsau described it as merely a sentiment. Thanks to the choice of success Neklyaeva in particular, is the mood for, a way of thinking can become, if not an organized structure, the society that is aware of itself as such.
And as such it can become a partner of Russia.
After all, so it appears that the restriction of Russia in the sense of some drastic steps against Belarus and is due to the lack of response to the question — what will happen next? That one is X, which will replace Lukashenko, on whom he will rely, whose interests, not his embrace of Moscow — the imitation of many years playing Lukashenko? Russians can start to play a more active for change in Belarus, when they see (or form) a clear socio-political base of these changes. It is desirable to more friendly to Moscow, but above all more understandable.
The name "Russian", "pro-Russian" I use quotation marks in — actually it russkost
no more than the project Milinkevich — praevrapeyskastsi. Both phenomena — unfortunately or fortunately — is deeply embedded in local and native soil.
So the result of the election could be forming on the basis of the "Tell the Truth" (or, by the way, on some other) pro-Russian forces executed. In addition to the pro-European forces led by Milinkevich.
So, except for Lukashenka, will win this election Milinkevich and Nekljaev. If they can.
(Speech at the Third Congress of the new Belarusian Diaspora in Europe and the United States, Berlin)