Coming a seismic apocalypse?


Even before the events in Japan, hundreds of scientists have signed a communiqué in which the projected growth of global catastrophes: the bowels of the earth began to move, and now discharge the stored energy — numerous earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunamis are waiting for humanity in the next few years. Humanity is invited to prepare.

Looking through the web news about the Japanese earthquake, I came across a phrase here: "The forecast earthquake in Japan was introduced on March 9." Located below the post card on which area of the future cataclysm designated circle with a radius of 500 kilometers and a center near where it happened. There's also stated that the forecast is valid until March 20, and the magnitude of the earthquake will be more than 5 …

Sun affects the Earth's magnetic field. Perhaps it triggers earthquakes

Every time there is another catastrophe, I turn to seismologists and geophysicists, and every time they are pretty well explain the reasons and say that nothing can be predicted. Science is not in a position to inform about the coming disaster with a tolerance of at least a month, at least six months. On the other hand, the earthquake zones are known: this is usually the joints of the lithospheric plates floating on the ocean islands viscous mantle crust. And so long as the weather turns bad times: "There have not been a major earthquake — so going to happen soon." But who needs such a prediction?

However, after any major earthquakes usually there are people who claim that they have made an accurate prediction, but no one would listen to them. This situation is repeated from time to time, so now I did not attach much importance website and organization called "Global Network for Earthquake Prediction," headed by Azerbaijani scientist Elchin Khalilov. I briefly reviewed the content of the site, I realized that the forecast is made using a new device called Atropatena, learned that this device is installed in Baku, Turkey, Indonesia and Pakistan …

So I would have stayed in the belief that collided with another crook or sincerely deluded man, if not for one circumstance. As it turned out, Khalilov, in addition to its network headed by another kind of "International Committee for Global Change subsurface Geochange». The committee has a website, and looking back, you can read the absolutely amazing things: that in the last 15-20 years active geodynamic processes increases, which consequently increases the number of active volcanoes and earthquakes, and in the next few years, our good old Earth will generally continuously shake and explode volcanoes, not counting small things such as tornadoes, hurricanes and floods.

All of this can be found in the communiqué committee sent out to the UN and heads of state. Beneath it is signed by about 300 scientists from around the world, including the respectable Russian geologists. Even more interesting is the fact that the initiator of treatment made by the famous geologist, academician Victor Hain. It happened in March 2009, and on 24 December the same year, Victor E., died in Moscow at the age of 95 years. People who knew him say that to the very end he retained a clear mind.

Activation of the subsoil

— The International Committee of the Geochange several years conducted research before having been formally organized — said Elchin Khalilov, which I got through in Baku. — And even then it was clear that in the normal course of geological events have been significant changes. Trend that had prevailed for a hundred years, dramatically changed the character. We managed to figure out when it happened: at the end of the 1990s. All parameters — the energy of earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity — have risen sharply since 1998. According to our forecasts, in the period from 2011 to 2015 will be a maximum of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, possible climate change. The peak will be in the years 2013-2014. What we are seeing now — just the beginning.

— And these conclusions have you drawn on statistics of earthquakes?

— Not only. In many respects. For example, in the 1990s, increasing the drift velocity of the magnetic north pole. Since 1992, it has grown from 12 kilometers per year to 58 in 2003, that is up to five times. Now the rate declined slightly — to 52 kilometers, but still remains very high. Pole moves in the direction of Siberia and be sure there will be, if the trend continues.

— What is the relationship between the magnetic field and earthquakes?

— The magnetic field is created by the rotation of the Earth's liquid metallic core. Any changes in the magnetic field changes to reflect the movement within the Earth. Full process model is not, but the link itself is not questioned.

— No, wait: the liquid core of the Earth — is the depth of three thousand miles, and the centers of most earthquakes — it is tens of kilometers. What does the earthquake?

— Activity related to the lithospheric plates is generated in the outer core of the Earth. The current model is based on two points. In certain places the kernel is heated section, mantle material rises convective flow and moves the lithospheric plates. If the nucleus is, for example, the release of energy, the heating increases, the machining speed and convective currents. If it increases, it increases the seismic danger.

— The report of the committee Geochange you linked geodynamics and solar activity. It also somehow connected with the magnetic field?

— Solar activity at the time of the flash activates a number of physical and chemical processes within the Earth. It serves as a detonator for those places where earthquakes and volcanic eruptions have already been prepared. Now begins the 24th cycle of solar activity. Due to the fact that he did not start for a long time, many researchers have projected him as a cycle of low activity. But in our work with Victor Khain we predicted it, on the contrary, the more powerful. The fact that in addition to 11-year cycles exist larger. Now just completed a 80-100-year cycle. Between the two major cycles over a long period of calm. And now we see the overlap two cycles, maybe even three. The result is a very strong seismic activity. It's hard to say what was in the ancient world, where data is quite incomplete. But I have the impression that in the last millennium is the most powerful cycle.


In general, the president of the "Global Network for earthquake prediction" Elchin Khalilov drew the following picture.

Now activate the so-called Ring of Fire — Locations where 80% of the seismic energy of the planet. These include Indonesia, Japan, Kamchatka, Sakhalin, the Aleutian Islands and the entire western coast of the Americas. It is the youngest area of the cortex.

Behind her older must be activated, the second area of activity — Alpine-Himalayan: Italy, Greece, Turkey, the Caucasus, Central Asia, India, Pakistan, China. This area is very populated, and there earthquakes and volcanism few people seem gift. Peak activity continental zone have for 2014-2015.

— We have to Victor Khain was in 2008, published a monograph on the cyclical processes, and then another one — in 2009. When we realized that we came across this unusual process, we decided to take the initiative to bring together the world community — said to me, a scientist at the end of the conversation, which left a feeling of unreality. I do not like apocalyptic predictions, even when they are signed by hundreds of well-known scientists. There is in violation of these measures. Humanity — a stable system, it will not take Hollywood horror stories.

To understand how is it that solar activity can enhance the geodynamics, I went to Alexander Zhigalina, head of the Laboratory of the Institute of Environmental Geoscience seismic monitoring them. EM Sergeev RAS. About him know that he is interested in such pieces.

— Number of events is increasing, this is true — confirmed the scientist. — Seismicity increased, and it's all linked to the vigorous activity of the Sun. By the way, this is why all waiting with bated breath 2012 — it is assumed the highest activity. Look, we've got the Japanese earthquake. A solar flare took place on the night of March 10, after which the world began a magnetic storm. Then intensified active volcanoes. Then we have the earthquake in Japan. Hence circles the planet at odds seismic energy. Now and in California, for example, jolted.

Model of action of the sun on the interior of the Earth, according to Zhigalina, it is this: The sun affects the Earth's magnetosphere, the Earth falls flat electromagnetic wave acting on the rocks and currents driving the bowels due to the piezoelectric effect — there are geological formations that produce electricity if they push, and vice versa: if such a breed to make the electric potential, it will begin to expand and move. Here you have a trigger for earthquakes — an electromagnetic wave alters the underground currents.

— It was shown experimentally. Pounding in the Pamirs in the Earth currents force of several hundred amperes and received in return an earthquake. Not very strong, but the effect is. A look at the work of Haina — Khalilov in solar cycles and cycles of seismic activity. Hain — absolute authority …

I looked. I came home and found on the web monograph entitled "Spatial and temporal patterns of seismic and volcanic activity." General principles Khalilov told me himself, but from the work, it became clear how the result is obtained: the scientists treated the mountain of materials on all earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, applied mathematics, and some have a few periods for seismic. The basic cycles are approximately 22 and 45 years old and really coincide with the solar cycles. Now several cycles converge at one point, hence such unpleasant forecasts.

In the course of reading the various articles on geophysics, seismology and volcanology I got the strong feeling that now in these sciences charming time — a lot of the facts, even more interpretations, but a coherent theory that answers the question, why is this place exactly at this time there is an earthquake, no.

What to do

— Let's see graphs — says Alexei Zavyalov, head of the Laboratory of continental seismicity and seismic hazard prediction of the Institute of Physics of the Earth. Schmidt RAS. — Look, by a strong earthquake I do not see significant growth in the last decade. There is growth — see? — Earthquake with a magnitude of about 6.5. Build global forecasts on this basis, I would not. As for Khalilov … I think he's doing it all just to promote your detector. I told people that I trust, Khalilov's speech before the Kazakh scientists. He could not there to answer any question!

— Well, let his technique has not been tested, but that under his communique signed by many scientists, including those of your institution.

— Yes, there are many reputable people, to whose work I'm serious. The fact is that organizational activity Khalilov to its detection is not relevant. But I'm even in this context does not want to participate in what was up to that person.

In the office of the Zav'jalov I got after the academic seminar at the Institute of Physics of the Earth, dedicated to the work of the Chief Scientist Alexey Lyubushin. Lyubushin, it turns out, was able to give a forecast of what happened in Japan in 2007, he showed that in the Japanese Islands is preparing an earthquake of magnitude higher than 8.5 — that the scientific world was almost impossible on the basis of the structure of the crust in the region.

For its forecast Lyubushin processed data microvibrations crust collected 77 Japanese seismic stations. "And when I saw that in February the schedule went like this, I waited. I predicted the event a little earlier, but in any case it is clear that it is about to happen, "- he said at the seminar, showing slides. And then said a thing, after which I immediately thought of the initiative Haina — Khalilov and notorious communique: "I am often asked why I do not do the same for other places — only for Japan. The answer is because I have no data. Such access and such a unique system is only there. I'd love to analyze the situation in Italy, for example, but I have no such information from there. "

— Ideally, the need for a good short-term prognosis? — The question on the same subject I asked Zav'jalov.

— Network monitoring stations. In all respects. According to seismic vibrations. According to the level of water in wells on the analysis of the chemical composition of the groundwater on the electrical conductivity of rocks … Now such a network, however, did not. Nowhere, in any country.

— And if it will, what next?

— And then you need to accumulate statistics. And then, drawing a mathematician, like a Lyubushin, to build the model.

In fact, no matter how obliquely looked Khalilov and his activities in the scientific community all agree that something must be organized, and that the proposed committee Geochange.

— Humanity is not ready for such disasters neither psychologically nor technologically — convinced me Elchin Khalilov. — First example: Volcano Eyjafjallajokull completely paralyzed air traffic in Europe for many days. Second example: the global technology leader Japan made a lot of mistakes in preparing for disaster. What else you need to start worrying?

In late 2009, the committee communique signed by scientists from 90 countries, and the materials sent to 140 heads of state. From the practical things proposed to establish an international center that will gather information and inform about cataclysms. Now there are, at best, regional centers, such as the American Center for Monitoring the tsunami. Also there is a project to create a commission to suit the commission on global climate change, because it is only a small fraction of what is happening to the Earth. It is proposed to introduce international standards for dealing with large disasters, and so on. But the first problem, as I understand it — to establish and standardize the collection of seismic data around the world. Because everyone on the planet is interconnected.

The biggest natural disaster in the last 10 years

January 26, 2001

A powerful earthquake with a magnitude of 7.9 occurred in the north-west of India. Killed about 20,000 people, more than a million Indians lost their homes.



December 26, 2003

At least 40 thousand people were killed in the earthquake in Iran. Two tremors with a magnitude of 6.3 and 5.3 destroyed the city of Bam and Baravat in the south of the country.


December 26, 2004

The most powerful in recent history tsunami struck the coast of Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, India and other countries. Killed more than 250,000 people, including about 200,000 — in Indonesia. The cause was the tsunami earthquake off the Indonesian island of Sumatra with a magnitude of 9.3 — the second power in the history of seismic observations.


23-30 August 2005

On the U.S. East Coast hit by Hurricane "Katrina". The main blow fell on the New Orleans Saints, who eventually to 80% was under water. Killed 1,836 people. Bo'lshih damage was avoided due to the fact that the vast majority of residents were evacuated in advance. Economic losses totaled $ 125 billion.


October 8, 2005

The earthquake in northern Pakistan with a magnitude of 7.6 was the strongest for the entire period of seismic observations in South Asia. Killed more than 73 million people, including 17,000 children. More than three million Pakistanis have lost their homes.


May 27, 2006

An earthquake with a magnitude of 6.2 occurred on the island of Java in Indonesia. Killed 6618 people. Hardest-hit city of Yogyakarta and surrounding areas.


2-3 May 2008

Tropical cyclone "Nargis" has caused flooding in Myanmar. In densely populated areas of the delta of the Irrawaddy River killed 138,000 people, 2.4 million were left homeless. Also hit Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Thailand.


May 12, 2008

87,000 people were killed or disappeared during an earthquake with a magnitude of 8 in the Chinese province of Sichuan. 5 million people homeless. It was the strongest earthquake in China after the Tangshan (1976), which killed about 250,000 people.

January 12, 2010

Haiti earthquake with a magnitude of 7.1 caused a humanitarian catastrophe. Completely destroyed the capital, Port-au-Prince, killing more than 220,000 people, the epidemic began. A huge number of victims due to poverty of the local population in the poorest country of America, no one thought to build earthquake-resistant building.


March-April 2010

The eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland, fortunately, there were no casualties. But the natural disaster has destabilized the lives of millions of people. Was paralyzed air traffic in Europe, there were fears that the lava melt the glacier and begin flooding.


Alexei Torgashev

With the participation of Victor Dyatlikovicha

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