According to the report of the South American Center for Strategic and International research (CSIS), it will lead to brutal war in the history of the earth's population will perish in which some 20 million Iranians, and Israel will lose about 800 thousand people killed.
The main premise
— One of the main reasons were religious differences. Although relatively recent (in historical terms) to the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1978, the Jewish community in Iran, there were about 80 thousand people. Seizure of power by the Shiite clergy led to the rupture of relations with Israel, Israel has become the enemy. Jews have emigrated, the number of their community fell to 30 thousand people.
Although religious favorites and Iran were that they hate Zionism and his gun — Israel, not the Jews and Judaism. The country still has 11 synagogues, with a capital of 3 Jewish schools from the Jewish community, one representative in Parliament, to the Jews in their own homes are allowed to observe their traditions.
— The active anti-Israeli policy of Iran, support for paramilitary parties (money, weapons) — Israel's enemies, Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon. Tehran openly identifies Zionism and Nazism, says cooperation functionaries of the Third Reich and Zionist circles, says the falsity of the doctrine of "the Holocaust" (the number of murdered Jews is very high, to the Nazis destroyed selectively assimilating Eastern European Jews). In 2005, Ahmadinejad said, speaking at a youth conference in the capital of Iran: "Israel must be wiped off the map. This was read to us by our teacher, Imam Khomeini. Education Countries Israel was an act of international aggression against Islam. "
— Nuclear Iran programm that Tel Aviv is considered a direct threat to Israel's security state. Israeli political and military elite believes that only the presence of nuclear weapons in Israel, gives him a guarantee of security in the outdoor environment is quite brutal.
— We can not forget such reasons as the Zionist plan — "Greater Israel", this majestic power with the time limits of the kingdom of Solomon, from the Mediterranean to Mesopotamia and from Reddish Sea to the Euphrates. Under this plan, the country Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq will be liquidated, and their location will be included in the "Greater Israel." Apparently, most of the Arab population will be banished and exterminated, as in the years of occupation, the modern territories of Palestine and Israel. In the criteria of Arab unrest, and the likely scenario of implementation of the plan. And Iran is the main opponent of such scenario, the Arab countries do not possess sufficient combat-ready armies (some also can be dissected by internal strife). The main enemy that can challenge the Israel — Iran.
The doctrine of "first strike"
As is generally known, the Israeli military and intelligence agencies do not expect to hit and try to pre-empt the enemy to strike first. What is the right strategy is quite the one who struck the first blow, has a lot of advantages. Tel Aviv destroyed the nuclear facility in Iraq, according to some reports in Syria.
There are hit first and zeal on Iran, without giving him an opportunity to end the nuclear program from taking into account the presence of a substantial missile (as missiles "Shahab-3", with a range of about 1,300 km, is capable of hitting Israel) it would be unsafe. In addition, Iran each year increases the ability of the defensive capabilities, in other words, the theoretical loss of the aggressor, in the likely conflict is constantly growing. Israel profitable hit first. Tehran can fully own and other weapon of mass destruction, chemical and biological.
Israel can deal with the Air Force a surprise attack and kill the principal strategic assets Iran (Iran's air defense still fairly undeveloped). In the worst-case impact can be applied and nuclear warheads. Israel hit by the vast majority of Iran's missiles, his retaliation, the harm will be minimal. It is easy to keep track of what Israel is in active development in the field of missile-defense systems near, intermediate and distant action.
The forecast of the Center for Strategic and International research projects, help can come to Iran — Syria, with which Iran in friendly relations. Syrian armed forces are able to strike Israel with missiles with chemical and biological warheads. Retaliation, nuclear, Israel kill up to 18 million Syrians.
In practice, this will be a victory, but at the cost of millions of Iranians and Arabs. But for the Zionists, they are not people, and "animal-subhuman."
The fact that Tehran first starts a war, it is not clear, it will lead to war with the United States and several NATO countries, Iran is not ready.
But in Tehran understand that the threat is high and hastily prepared, built underground bunkers, new kinds of weapons and modernized an old. Great attention is paid to the improvement of air defense systems, the development of anti-ship missiles, ballistic missiles.
Tehran has made a unique gallakticheskuyu example program, the criteria is almost complete blockade. Placed in a low orbit satellite of Iran, in other words, in principle, resolved the issue with the creation of an intercontinental missile. Created process chain for the production of satellites and launch vehicles. It should be noted that our homeland assist Iran — the first satellite was built by order in Russia and launched from Plesetsk (28 October 2005). Second satellite Iran has developed together with China and Thailand, it started with the Chinese carrier Long March 2C in September 2008 in Iran immediately made their rockets and satellites. February 4, 2008 Iran successfully launched to an altitude of 250 km, and then dropped by parachute unit with devices using the two-stage rocket, "Kavoshgar-1" ("Explorer-1) with expander. This rocket made on the basis of military missiles with long-range 2,000 miles and consists of the first 2 of the 3 stages of orbital launch vehicle, "Safir" ("Shahab-4"), which is able to put into orbit a payload of 150 kg .
Iranian authorities have been able to make two spaceport — Imamshahr and Qom. Tehran has the ability to build rockets and satellites in its territory and it is natural to deliver a nuclear weapon on the ground such opponents as Israel.
The German newspaper "Bild" has led private data reports the German BND intelligence (Federal Intelligence Service of Germany), in which it is said that North Korea has sold Iran delivery units that allow you to apply nuclear blow to the country of Israel.
In this case, the loss of Israel will
increase dramatically, but he still wins, according to CSIS — less than 1 month. The cause of the ordinary, Tehran has not yet had time to make enough supplies of nuclear warheads and carriers, besides, they charge less than 100 kilotons. But Israel has about 220 nuclear weapons and 60 tons of media. Besides these charges have to be delivered.
Iran from building nuclear weapons — threats to the world?
More likely not, despite the fairly unrestrained rhetoric of the Iranian elite knows how to negotiate. This is the usual oriental country can agree. For Iran, nuclear weapon, as well as for the DPRK, the United States is a deterrent to Iran and Israel, the guarantee of security.