Ivanishvili could become the second Yanukovych?

After the victory of the opposition movement "Georgian Dream" led by Bidzina Ivanishvili in Georgia and in Russia are wondering now how will swap the Russian-Georgian affairs. Of course, in itself is a geopolitical divination — it nepriznatelnoe, but still some way of the future interactions between Moscow and Tbilisi are not enough by little loom. To read about how far Ivanishvili is ready to go in terms of building good-neighborly relations, it is necessary, as it is now perhaps a closer look at Ivanishvili, its status, the facts of his biography.

Ivanishvili could become the second Yanukovych?

The opposition favorite, who overnight became a political figure's number one Georgia, surpassing Misha Saakashvili, not the person which may already be in the first step to a higher occurrence power radically change the politics of Georgia. Bidzina Ivanishvili — businessman with a successful businessman. And no successful businessman who has not yet had time to acclimate to the political field, will not tear the steering wheel in the opposite direction, even if it did not keep her course is quite impressive. On this basis, one can imagine that Ivanishvili which preparing to become prime minister of the Georgian government, at least in the first months of his political work will not interfere with the inertia that is stored on the activity of Misha Saakashvili. Naturally, the entire team will exchange this ship will be assigned entirely new people (and many of these names are already known), but the command "Full back!" That can deploy the foreign policy of the country, will not be given.

But, like any good businessman, Bidzina Ivanishvili is aware that the policy — is also a business, and hence, there is need to wait for the inertial thrust act would not, and at the moment it is already possible to give commands to change course. In the unlikely event the ship may be under the power of calm, which, though better political and economic storms, but also can lead to new dilemmas.

If controlled by such considerations, then after the announcement of Ivanishvili's new head of the Cabinet (and after the change of the Constitution and the head of the country), West Georgia will continue to justify their loyalty. With all this Ivanishvili is well aware that in fact Georgia to the West in almost all lost a factor speak out so "interesting." The fact that the words of European integration and accession to NATO — is, of course, a balm for the soul of democratic and liberal-minded part of Georgian society, but only as long as the words and the words remain. West a couple of years breaks heads over, like in myagenkoy form that will suit Tbilisi, announced their own "eternal loyalty" to the Georgian authorities to realize that with this integration now some difficulties. Georgia is in all ways now is not suitable for European integration, or for entry into NATO. The fact that official Tbilisi does not recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and the territorial question is fundamental when entering the North Atlantic Alliance. Specifically, this explains such extensive NATO Secretary General Rasmussen's remarks as "Georgia has never been so close to NATO as it is now." Yeah, for that matter, then our home, too, have never been so close to the alliance, because this Union in the Russian Federation is at hand in the form of the Baltic republics, Poland and other "partners" in Eastern Europe. In general, the "light" the coming future in which Georgia will be a member of NATO, is seen so far is very, very vague. At the same time, the level of economic development of Georgia as a one-year GDP at purchasing power parity opportunities here are less than $ 5500 per person (for comparison: in Russia — $ 16,700, Belarus — about $ 13,000, Latvia — $ 15400, Greece — $ 22,000), of course, neither of which focus on the EU and it can not be. More precisely, it is something you can keep as much as you like, but Brussels has not had time to completely lose his mind, so take under his wing country with such dismal economic performance but only because of his power so willing to show their commitment to democratic standards. As they say, the standards standards and snuff something apart …

Bidzina Ivanishvili, who in the business had to eat dog understands all these things perfectly. That's why his words about what course to join the NATO and European integration will continue under his leadership the state — first, that the world heard after the election victory of "Georgian Dream". After all, if Ivanishvili has permitted himself to say something else, then the West would only expect such a puncture on the new policy of the Georgian authorities. In fact the West Georgia now need only 2-big goals: in-1's, have an additional foothold in the event of a large-scale operation against Iran, as well, in-2, in order to exert a certain pressure on Russia from the south, that Moscow was not very relaxing . You can say what such a position the United States and the European Union to maintain the enthusiasm of Tbilisi, and as the head of this country will be the person who utters it takes to make and with NATO, and with plans to join the EU, some forces will click here button one more political plum. Georgia reincarnated in Ukraine-2, in which the loyal West Orange has been replaced by the power of tossing from side to side, Viktor Yanukovych, to this day do not determine where he leads his country.

In this connection it becomes just fun to watch the performances of the current Georgian President Misha Saakashvili, who pronounces his speech against the 2-flag — the flag of Georgia and the banner of the European Union … We could hang back to the same NATO flag for complacency, but all around is well aware that this clown can not last long.

So it can still make Bidzina Ivanishvili, who understands that he inherited a truly colossal intra-and, in particular, foreign-policy challenges after an unfortunate run-out, the remainder of the course Saakashvili's end? Knock fists and head against the door of NATO and the European Union, of course, possible, but only cones could not be avoided, but the doors are likely to remain shut. Then just reincarnated in Georgia posleoranzhevuyu Ukraine that political forces are pulling in one direction and then the other side, almost tearing the country in two conflicting parts.

It turns out that Ivanishvili left two choices: either to overcome the economic and territorial challenges and achieve entry into the structure indicated above, or turn away from thoughts like joining NATO and European integration. But if you try to solve the indicated prepyadstviya, that Ivanishvili will either have to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, or try to return these republics into Georgian fold. And then it is for the person who is preparing to become the new Georgian favorite, will be a political disaster (at least, from the standpoint of Western interests).

Raise the standard of living in Georgia at least to the level of the lowest in the European Union in the current criteria is also not real. Here a negative role for the Georgian economy is playing a total lack energoelementov also countless embargo against Russia. Namely, only the 1st ban on the import of Russian Georgian wine and mineral water, Georgia loses about 200 million dollars a year. Given that the combined annual GDP of 4,5-million-Georgia is about 23 billion dollars, 200 million even look impressive figure.

i now trying to return the entrepreneurs who were considered disgraced under Saakashvili, Georgia. Many of them had time to settle down either in Russia or in the West. According to the views of Ivanishvili, these people can make a living stream to the implementation of not only the economic potential of Georgia, and the potential to build relationships with other countries. Businessmen while responding to a proposal Ivanishvili silence. Why? Yes, since most realize what problems the country is now so much that their solutions may require long years, and of the very political situation in the country remains diverse. Namely, in the old days it was clear that although Saakashvili is preparing to hand over power to other hands, but with all this, by all means try to retain such a lucrative post as the agency of Georgia on Public Procurement, as a special bond, and the power of the newcomer almost agrees to quit acting for President of the control of the designated areas. How perfectly clear all the same disgraced Georgian businessmen, Saakashvili if given the chance to stay at the state trough, any slogans associated with changes in Georgia, converted into a farce.

It turns out that Ivanishvili like and celebrated the victory, and thinks he got all political and economic difficulties, but so far the incident clearly stronger than him, to enable him to cope with the challenges. Specifically, this gives reason to argue that Ivanishvili, who received the status of the grave-digger "Rose Revolution", is capable of becoming only the second Yanukovych, not even able to afford to give the answer, where he leads the country: wishes of the EU, but the EU against our homeland is calling but to be friends with Russia today is not stylish — what if imperial ambitions and all that … I would like to make mistakes in their own findings regarding Bidzina Ivanishvili, but the incident — a harsh thing.

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