Today marks exactly eight months after the start of the rebellion in Libya. February 15, 2011, the country fell into the abyss of war and intervention. End in a bloody orgy doeth it not visible.
Now comes the 5th phase of the war, connected with the struggle for the major cities, the phase transition to the 6th phase of the war-related ordinary guerrilla war, in fact has just begun. And accordingly, as NATO takes Sirte and Bani Walid — sooner or later it will happen naturally (resources of the parties simply incommensurable), we move from one phase of the war to the other, that's all. Therefore, in the case of the war in Libya. nothing fundamentally terrible happens.
While Gaddafi fighting, the war can not be completed without regard to — he has a city or not.
Gaddafi wins it time? And how. Comrades, if you forgot, just look at the calendar. Today's September 29, October on the way. So read carefully or even say out loud — October. Now remember, when it all began. Remember? Well, what more do you want? Gaddafi has already made many times more than one would have expected at least someone. What he is doing now, it's a bonus to what has already been achieved. Each month, the top, it is a victory.
And since it took another two weeks, and since the start of the rebellion — 8 months. What has changed in that time? What lies behind this dry yedinichku, which added to the periods of unprecedented resistance irresistible force?
Similarity results of the past month.
1. Gaddafi and his sons are alive key. And what is happening in Libya, speaks about what they are in some form of impact on the situation. Not one of the key figures Jamahiriya for the reporting period was eliminated.
Consequently, the past month suggests that organizational difficulties associated with the loss of Tripoli successfully overcome and the Green Resistance remains unified command (although it may not cover all of the resistance).
2. Two key cities, without which one can not speak about the end of the 5th stage of the war for the past month and has not been taken. Beni Walid and Sirte are the way to victory, and this is the main Jamahiriya for the last month.
Today, for example, if you believe Pedivikii, performed as well, and one month from the beginning of the assault Sirte. This month the city has not been taken — the recent defeat of a large group of rebels called at Sirte became a kind of a rose on a beautiful cake. Calculate all the losses of PNS and NATO in men and equipment over the past month is not possible. For a recent defeat indicates that:
a) In Sirte kept organized resistance. The city is the core of the defense is obvious, is the commander of this defense is the head of sector — without this operation to encircle the city launched the group would be simply impossible.
The defense appears from the media is in the nature of resistance mesh nodes that coordinate their interactions for tactical waste or counterattacks.
The main methods of dealing damage rebels are — a tactic of creating fire pockets, artillery and multiple rocket launchers, a barrage of sniper fire, tactics out small groups in the flank and rear of the advancing rebels. As a result, the numerical superiority of the enemy was offset. Establish fully adequate action of their own assault teams rebels are not yet able. In this sense we can say that the leadership of the defense of Sirte has higher operational and tactical level training.
b) As long as the defenders have enough firepower and ammunition to not only fight back but also makes a counter-attack.
Since it is impossible to know for sure what the ammunition stockpile (primarily artillery, mortar and MLRS) has sufficient defense of Sirte at the beginning of the storm, we can not reliably tell when a shortage of ammunition factor will play a key role — maybe tomorrow, maybe in a month . The only thing that can be said about it — something that is used in a highly literate.
c) The Army has the support of the local militia and civilians. Actually it is the armed people — in my opinion, without this factor, Sirte had already been taken — that army support for armed resistance Sirte population gives the same stubborn, we saw in the summer battle for Brega. We must understand that the army is now Gaddafi for obvious reasons and combat capabilities — weaker itself of the summer 2011. Large losses in trained manpower and equipment, loss of a significant part of warehouses, command posts, communication lines, etc. — seriously limit the ability of the army. In this respect, the people fought against the occupation army has invaluable support without which it could not survive.
d) Order the rebels in their mass as before different insufficient combat training — take the weight of the tradition and the actions under the cover of NATO air strikes and artillery. In urban combat, and in trying to break through the defense of sustainable government forces traditionally have huge losses. By paramilitary, with loss of commanders (that under the Sirte and Bani Walid happened often) quickly lose morale and begin to reverse, as for example during the battle for Brega. Western troops trained instructors demonstrate a high level of training, but in urban combat, they also carry serious loss, and in the short term there is nobody to replace trained fighters, except of course the meat in slippers.
Accordingly, if we sum up the above — in Sirte on the side of government troops — more qualified commanders at all levels, supporting the armed population and stable structure of the army core of resistance. On the side of the rebels — numerical superiority and air umbrella of NATO and promising factor exhaustion of ammunition for defenders.
3. I still believe that sooner or later will dodavlen Sirte (on a purely objective and trivial reasons — will be released stocks of ammunition and food) — as NATO this "success" is necessary in order to proclaim the "formal victory", then all difficulties can be be blamed on the rebels themselves, who by their blatant no professionalism daily defame "light" image of NATO. That is why NATO them for a month driving to Sirte, where they are choking with blood, losing trained men and commanders.
Actually, the longer will be the Sirte magnet (day, week, month), which attracts the attention of NATO is, the better, because maintaining a concentrated pressure Sirte give time to other resistance groups to regroup and take action.
In September, I wrote that NATO made a serious mistake by starting two operations divergent directions, with the result that began two simultaneous assault of Sirte and Bani Walid, who ran for NATO and PNS dismal failure.
At this time, NATO and PNS emphasized focus on Sirte, but the problem is that the operation as before bears the heavy imprint of underestimating the will to resist of the Libyan army and armed population. Nothing but regular destruction, like the day before yesterday in Sirte can not be explained. In this regard, NATO and PNS amusing way kalkiruyut errors German generals miscalculate seemingly everything except the will to resist the Soviet people.
Hence the great loss of the cannon fodder that is not enough in itself is currently the host, so also the command uses it to say the least questionable.
Of assault Beni Walid under these conditions and can not speak. After the last assault was repulsed Beni Walid, serious encroachments on this city have been taken. Islamists are not particularly eager to die for the city, which they generally do not need. They logically expect that Sirte is finally taken from under Sirte NTC troops will be deployed with tanks and artillery, to ugly, excessive losses dodavit Beni Walid, because in Beni Walid and army is the core, and an armed population, which have a taste of blood defeated the rebels in the September battles.
In this regard, I believe that a serious attack on Bani Walid in order to capture it will start 5-7 days after the fall of Sirte.
Must transfer tanks and artillery from under Sirte, establish supply, to fix worn parts. In this regard, I do not think that Beni Walid will be taken in October (unless something unexpected happens — like treason or some defensive errors). The actual starting date of full assault — the last week of October — the first half of November.
That is to say, that in October the 5th stage of the war will not end. So — not only that of Sirte and Bani Walid played a major role after the fall of Tripoli, they continue to play it and now remain key strategic factors. In this respect, it would be a crime not to use these factors.
Began an uprising in Tripoli yesterday was very symptomatic dated to the beginning of rebellion on February 15. Yesterday's events have dispelled the myth that all is quiet in Tripoli and all gave up, as was prophesied western and domestic promoters, as well as the overly hysterical witnesses. In Tripoli, as claimed by Gaddafi himself, and various sources — still remains a significant number of supporters of Gaddafi. And what's important — the uprising began at a time when it promised Qaddafi, indicating that Gaddafi himself still manages events. The moral factor yesterday's speech even before the military — I promised you a revolt to get.
Significance of this fact is many times higher the success or failure of yesterday's uprising. This performance of the local population, which kills rebel patrols and burning flags PNS indicates how severe will the confrontation, when PNS with grief in half take Sirte and Bani Walid and go to the 6th stage full of guerrilla warfare.
4. Information hood over Libya is still strong, if what is happening in the towns still leak some information, then some parts of Libya has practically nothing about such areas bordering Algeria and Tunisia.
None of the reports of the death or capture of Gadhafi's children was not confirmed. Even Moussa Ibrahim is alive and he is healthy.
Continues to be active Internet censorship — with Yutuba still scrub video shows the failure of the rebels, in social networks active provocateurs and disinformation. But in light of the recent success of Colonel, support groups, Libya apparently get a new optimism.
But the main core of online opposition aggression — it is certainly alive Gaddafi and his sons, who regularly go on the air, keeping the morale of his supporters.
5. In geostrategic relationship with high probability we can say that minimize the chance of resistance Gaddafi started the Great War in 2011. Apparently, the active phase of the attack on Syria and Iran will be moved to the end of winter and beginning of spring 2012. Gaddafi broke and continues to thwart all possible to save others from what is happening to his country and his people. This applies especially to Syria and Assad. And this is one more last month clearly can not be attributed to a number of successes of NATO, which can not end this is clearly hateful Europe tyagomotinu in Libya. Just can not get away — it would be a catastrophic loss of prestige, and the win does not work. With the ultimate victory for NATO is not visible in the first approximation, since it is unclear how NATO plans to crush the guerrilla war (to which the U.S. has always been a problem) in which the provision of looting Libyan resources would pose serious difficulties.
6. In the 9th month of the confrontation of aggression, we come to the battling of Sirte and Bani Walid, with a live Gaddafi and his sons, with the rebels in Tripoli. Is that a lot? In my opinion, the last month, Gaddafi can safely write itself into an asset.
His resistance is increasingly highlights the inability of PNS not like to run the country, and just beat Gaddafi.
In this regard, I personally once again proved that if anyone is capable of firmly take power in Libya after Gaddafi, it is only and only the Islamists. PNS never be able to control the entire country. In this regard, it would be for Gaddafi to as dangerous, if now take top Islamists, organizational structures to be more stable than the structure of the PNS. While the Islamists are just a group of disparate gangs and groups. Real danger they will present when it is agreed between them to create a semi-religious leaders of the army on the model of the Taliban, which will be based not only and not so much on NATO, but on recruiting Libyan youth and professional mercenaries. It really would have serious weight in Libya and most importantly — the Islamists is that which is not in the PNS — they have a real ideological core of radical Islam, which are the same as the principles are alien to the Libyan Jamahiriya and flashy liberalism PNS.
For Gaddafi weak PNS is more convenient as the enemy, rather than organized Islamists. If there is a further delay in the capture of the city, for example, if the end of November at least stand Beni Walid, the Islamist factor will play a pivotal role in the background of military and organizational weakness of the PNS. This is the second factor, in addition to poking out of NATO, which causes PNS peck defense Sirte. Tightening 5th stage weakens PNS and strengthen the Islamists.
In fact, now we can see the game on three results, which can be three different winners — Gaddafi, PNS and Islamists (purpose of NATO, I hate the brackets). In my view, the past month has shown that it is at least likely to PNS to win this war.
And the main thing. Optimists were right who said that, do not bury Gaddafi and his supporters ahead of time, and they are all still prove affair. In recent days, even the non-believers (those who have the least bit of objectivity) have been forced to recognize that the ability of Gaddafi and his supporters to resist more than enough to continue the war. Real military epic, for which we are seeing for 8 months continues with unabated tension. In front of us waiting for the next month, a fierce struggle for life and freedom.
And personally, I have no doubt that as the November 15 fight will go with relentless ferocity, the key to which is a heroic personality of Colonel Gaddafi, who in our eyes makes history that lies behind this humble unit, which he added to his already without doubt legendary life.