"GLOBAL ECONOMY IS DEAD"
— Debt in advanced countries grow. Than all over?
— The global economy is dead. The advanced countries are unable to service their debts. In America, it has already exceeded 16 trillion. bucks. There is a calculation. Even if the U.S. government will impose its own income tax 100% of people, all of them still fail to serve — in fact pay — private debt. The United States in the last 30 years living off credit. This was the main source of the development of civilization and progress. Now this scheme came to an end. And the only way — to a default.
— Let's say, America will declare itself to zero. What then?
— Implemented the principle of "All the people we must forgive." Yes, and it's difficult. Since all political leaders among the owners — the banks. Who are the owners of banks — God knows. There is a second option would be to devalue the currency. For example, 10 times. If you do this, the debt burden will be reduced considerably. Quite simply, your debt is denominated in an old bucks, but what you produce — in the new bucks. But any of these ways is not acceptable from a political and social point of view. This is very dangerous.
— Neuzh that the current situation was impossible to calculate? After all, smart people in the same bank and the government sits, mathematical models calculate …
— Worthless. The modern economy to real life things do not matter. In October this year, even in the U.S. Federal reserve system (similar to our central bank) have recognized that their models — is an empty exercise in arithmetic. For example, for which they have the means to pump up the economy and keep rates on loans to almost zero? According to their model in a year and a half was to happen to double-digit inflation, the growth of production and consumption. Neither one nor the other, we do not litsezreem. Prices do not grow, new jobs are being created, creation falls. In fact, over two years, the world economy was injected about $ 30 trillion. This is half of the world's GDP. But it did not help. Since the funds have settled in the banks and the real economy is not there yet.
— What's in this huge economic machine has gone wrong?
— There is a world to say: we have run across to the next level. We have a brand-new post-industrial society and the economy, blah blah blah. But what is it really? This is when you get a basic income is not from the production of anything, but from the revaluation of assets. Let's say you have in your apartment. You go to the bank and reads: I wish for her to take the credit. The bank gives you for $ 100. After a year or two due to the growth rates it is worth $ 200. You go to the bank and reads: Give me another $ 100. And the bank gives, as it is now so much. What are you doing? Take and spend these funds. Of course, asset prices grow again. But at some point the market is collapsing. Your apartment is worth the same $ 100, but you need to order more. I always remember the example of the Land of the Rising Sun, where the cost of real estate there fell from 1990 to 1996 year by 80% and up to now have not risen. Now something similar happen in all countries.
"OIL PRICES piled SEVERAL TIMES"
— Crisis can not be avoided?
— No, and it will be worse majestically depression. Since substantially greater imbalances. Hardest hit our homeland and China, Saudi Arabia. We'll be back on the level of well-being in the 60 — 70 years of the last century.
— And what will happen in Russia, you can be more specific?
— At the moment everything in our economy is dependent on oil prices. In the coming years it will fall to $ 35 — 40. Until that happens, because the world economy has pumped liquidity. She goes to the stock and commodity markets. But this can not last endlessly. The tasks in the real sector has already begun. Soon, citizens and businesses are not cmogut service their debts. And again everything will collapse — no matter how much money you are not printed.
— Why are we so vulnerable? After all, much of the same of other economies that are also engaged in the export of resources …
— We are of their fundamentally different. For example, from the same Australia. We do not export focused model and resource economics of the colony. Less. The private industry is murdered. Agriculture began to rise to his feet, but the WTO will finish it soon. There are only a pipe, which pumped oil and gas. Petro-dollars are spent on the purchase of imported products that U.S. government bonds are also routed to the bureaucrats of the country. Remember where we were and where the level of development of China in 1987? And let's compare at the moment. Two very large differences.
"Save up money and live debt-free"
— You are such nightmares are telling that it is time to dig a bunker in the country and the products there to lay down … What are we supposed to do?
— All true voices. Buy canned meat, ammunition, drugs and guns. I'm not kidding.
— Neuzh all be so aggressive?
— Intelligence agencies of England and Switzerland are preparing for an influx of refugees from Europe. Make reports on the impact of the crisis on social unrest and riots. The most affected developing countries. We already live in poverty, and we will live even worse.
— What is the best advice will give to our readers?
— Earn money and live debt-free. The main rule — to live under their own abilities, not to show off. Never realized how can a wage of 60 — 70 thousand rubles to take up a new "Mercedes"?
— Excellent, funds have accumulated. But what, then keep a stash?
— In gold. In other words, the physical metal. Coins, scrap gold, bullion. Stocks and bonds — is a piece of paper, in other words, nothing. They do not need to take. The same thing — with the ruble. Need to get rid of him. Make sure his story at least the last 25 years. How many times is it depreciated in 90 years? That's right!
— A better than gold?
— In 2008, there grew a buck and gold. But if you look at the statistics, we buck since 1913 has lost 98% of purchasing opportunities, and gold — no. Plus the gold that he still has a function and product.
Inflation rises — Precious metals also more expensive. And when the crisis is gold rises, as it is the equivalent of funds. Personally, I own a home equity holding in gold. And similarly act, speak out so that some intelligent people I know.
Stepan Demura. He was born in 1967. All the dashing 90's lived in America. Graduate student at MIPT went there to receive additional education. And remained in the States until the early 2000s. "Eat like — he explains. — That went to trade in the South American stock exchange. " In the late 90s he was head of research at one of the big Chicago vkladyvatelnyh companies. And great to explore how the overseas economy. In the 2000s, he returned to Russia. "Money is earned. It was time to get married. And an American I never liked — said Demura corresponden
t "KP" when they overturned on the basis of an interview on a pair of glasses of whiskey. — Imagine, the one I said during a visit that the United States won World War II! "
"In 99.9% of cases, the predictions do not come true"
— Of course, the crisis that occurred in 2008, not yet dissolved. It is a little similar to what was in the 70's of the last century. Then economy was restored only after 10 years — says Basil Solodkov, director of the Banking Institute of the Higher School of Economics. — In my opinion, a U.S. default will not be exact. In particular, while dollar remains the world's reserve currency, and Americans continue to borrow on the outdoor market. All the more so that in the States there have been positive changes. They have become very tightly engage the problem of the budget deficit and reduce the national debt.
Chertovskikh sudden events in the coming years will not be exact. Likely is it that the exit of Greece from the euro zone and a fairly harsh acceleration of inflation. But a crisis always comes in a moment. And in what form and where it happens, it is very difficult to predict. Financial science is strong rear mind. And 99.9% of the predictions of the decline is not implemented.
As for the savings … If we had not bought gold in 1913, and in 1977, that up to now could be in the red, and if at the end of 2008, is in the black. So it all depends on the choice of the date. But the community cards in advance nobody knows.
And how do you prepare for a crisis? Let's discuss!