Signs of war. The current military-political situation in the Middle East and North Africa

Signs of war.  The current military-political situation in the Middle East and North Africa

Information signals crowded place, talking about the proximity of the beginning of a large regional war. The situation in Nigeria, Somalia, South and North Sudan, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Iraq, Syria, the Palestinian and Iranian difficulty, landing of U.S. troops in Libya, the concentration of naval forces of NATO in the Persian Gulf, the constant attacks on the United States Air Force areas of Pakistan. .. Activation of the entire planet of various extremist, terrorist, design organizations.

The aggravation of the various revolutionary units in Russia and look through them the interests of the large (oligarchic) Russian business, Washington and London, who do not like folding tendencies in Russia to revive the "neoimperii." For example, on January 23 its position on the future of the Russian Federation openly expressed his favorite "Fair Russia", the presidential candidate Sergei Mironov. He said that if Putin will overcome in the first round of the presidential election with a very huge margin in its favor, it will lead to what is already 1-2 years in Russia there will be "tragic events", "change of power through unconstitutional means."

Commented on topical theme and Sberbank CEO German Gref. In an interview with "Kommersant" in a very streamlined wording Gref stated its disagreement with the current position ("Putin's" course): "… in order to pay off this situation, of course, requires more comprehensive measures. Do not need to read about feeding and develop a mechanism for earning. If budget is a means of social helps, it does not give any feedback. " During difficult for the ordinary citizens of words lies a common phenomenon — economical means to invest, according to Gref and his beliefs similar Liberals in Western profitable securities. Funds must make money. "Social vspomozheniem" — investing in education, medicine, the military, the rise of pensions, salaries and so on — it's a loss for the budget, spending, "there is no return."


January 23 was a real "day of Iran." Foreign ministers of 27 countries in the Euro Union meeting in Brussels approved the decision to introduce an embargo on Iranian oil. It is estimated that by July 1, 2012 all members of the EU collapsed purchase of hydrocarbons in Iran. It is a blow not only on Iran, and by the EU itself, because the main buyers of oil from the Islamic republic are "problem countries" European Union — around 68% of imports come Greece, Italy and Spain. In Greece, the Iranian oil accounts for a third of consumption of "black gold". As a result of rising oil prices, which will cause the decision and the need to reorient the economy of these countries to other suppliers, they get another bad impulse. In addition, the Europeans have introduced monetary sanctions against the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic and the ban on the import of capital equipment for Iran's petrochemical sector, the respective technologies.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed the decision of the EU oil embargo on Iran. He said it was "a step in the right direction."

Almost immediately with the news (January 22) American-Anglo-French naval force has passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Practically this is a clear warning to Tehran that follow if the Iranian armed forces try to block the strait.

Clearly, this is a significant financial and economic attack on Iran. The Iranians are taking steps to lower the damage from sanctions. Thus, Tehran asked to share a move to partial payments Japanese yen (at the current time, India is paying bucks and euros). The Indians, in turn, offer payment in national currency — the rupee. But Tehran fears that the rupee is not one hundred percent fully convertible currency (the rupee will be difficult to implement on the market without discounts). Iranians are supplying oil to India 9500000000. dollars a year. Beijing has said it is willing to settle with Tehran in reals and renminbi. There is agreement on the transition to national currencies with Russia.

Iran has now left about 5 months to have time to redirect its own oil and oil products to other markets in the unlikely event the Islamic Republic offers significant financial and economic prepyadstviya to the aggravation of social and public issues (Kurdish, Arab and Azeri). Just the news of the introduction of EU sanctions caused the fall of the Iranian reais to 10%. For last week's real exchange rate to the greenback fell to 15% in the month by more than 50%. Clearly, if the Westerners will cause massive unrest in Iran population, the performance of national minorities — it will be a great victory for the West.

In addition, the Iranians have said that if they will face with the problem of the oil, it will block the Strait of Hormuz. This was stated by Deputy Chairman of the Committee on Public Safety and the external policy of the Parliament of the Islamic Republic Mohammad Kousari. This is not the first Iranian threat to block the strait. 27 December 2011 on the ability of such said Iranian Vice President Reza Rahimi. In response, Washington said it would not allow the termination of navigation through the strait. A January 1, 2012 the South American president Barack Obama imposed sanctions against the Central Bank of Iran.

There is a reason for war. Now there expect one who first starts — Israel will hold a sudden raid or Iran tries to block the strait, faced with the danger of economic collapse.


U.S. drone struck another blow to the country of Pakistan. In the north-west of the country was destroyed car, killing several people. Such strikes USAF applied frequently.

Given the political situation in the country, and Pakistan — is a real "powder keg" of the planet, the United States is practically commit provocative acts, and can cause an avalanche with very grave consequences for the region. What is also striking is not taking into account the fact that the cards with the "new states" on the former site of Pakistan has announced.

Affairs of Pakistan with the United States remain strained. January 21 Pakistan's Foreign Ministry called the "speculative" reports that Islamabad will soon be allowed to resume the carriage of goods for the forces of the North Atlantic Alliance in Afghanistan through the Pakistani countryside. Pakistani authorities have refused to accept the special envoy of South American president in Afghanistan and Pakistan, M. Grossman, calling his presence "uncomfortable." U.S. diplomat in Islamabad to discuss the planned opening of negotiations with the Taliban. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan, JR Khar said that the case with Washington still remain "in limbo."


January 23 representatives of the foreign ministers of 27 EU countries decided to strengthen sanctions against Syria. The new sanctions prohibit the entry of SAR equipment for the petrochemical and gas industries industry as an embargo on imports of telecommunications equipment and software. In addition, the sanctions were 8 more Syrian companies and 22 of the bureaucrat (their foreign exchange assets in Europe will be frozen). Apart from the EU Member States, the sanctions imposed on Damascus and Turkey.

On the same day Damascus rejected the initiative of the League of Arab States (LAS)
to resolve the conflict in the Syrian civilian state. The Syrian government has said that the League's proposal is a gross interference in the internal affairs of the SAR. League offered to Damascus "Yemen scenario" — Syrian President Bashar al-Assad had to hand over the reins to the first vice-president Farouk al-Shara and leave for 2 months in retirement.

And it is against the background of the fact that in Syria erupt first civilian pockets of war. Militants Syrian Liberation Army (SOA) to connect their activities guerrilla and terrorist acts, and began to carry out large-scale and well-organized operations against the government army and the security forces. A few days there was fighting in the town of Zabadani, 40 km north-west of the capital near the Lebanese border. January 21 gangs have tried to capture the city Dumas 15 km from Damascus, but were repulsed. Clashes were recorded in the north-western province of Idlib, near the cities of Homs, Nahal, Deraa and several other towns Fri In Istanbul (Turkey and is an active member of the anti-Syrian front) last week it was announced the establishment of the so-called "Supreme Council of the Syrian military." At the head of it put defected to the rebels, General MA Al-Sheikh. This structure wants to take control of the "revolt against the regime." In addition, the parent organization of the overseas opposition — the Syrian State Council (SNC) and the COA agreed on between them, maintaining unchanged the "hot line". At this time, in different towns of Syria last, though not in such a large scale before, protests enemies of the regime of Bashar al-Assad. On the other hand, there are mass pro-government rallies.

In Syria, she graduated from the work of the mission of the League. Its head, Sudanese General al-Dhabi, presented on January 21 Arab League secretary-general N. Al-Arabi report on the result of the observers, saying that the work of the mission was "the most fair, impartial and transparent. We were treated well and the prototype for all parties. " January 22 in the Egyptian capital of Inter-Arab Commission for the CAP could see the report of the League, it was recommended to the Council of Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the Arab League observers to extend the period of stay in the country for another month. Secretary General of the League also invited the Foreign Ministers of the Arab states to agree to the extension of the Arab League observer mission in Syria for a month. In the end, there was such an agreement. At the same time, Riyadh announced the recall of their own observers from the Arab League mission, because in Saudi Arabia believe that the Syrian government "has not fulfilled any of the 1st position of the Arab peace initiative." In addition, the Saudi monarchy has called on the international community to use all possible mechanisms of pressure on the Syrian administration to end the violence. It must be said that the Syrian opposition, which is located outside the country, bad commends the League mission in Syria and insists on the development of "no-fly zones" following the example of Libya, to conduct a military intervention under the UN flag.

At the same time, the South American President Barack Obama announced his intention to white houses to intensify efforts to achieve "diplomatic means" the ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his closest associates. The United States also wants at the end of January, "temporarily" closed its embassy in Damascus.


January 21 as part of the transfer of power in Yemen parliament gave the retired President Ali Abdullah Saleh legal immunity. Immediately MPs have expressed their support for the candidacy of Vice-President A. M. Al-Hadi as head of the country. Already for the next day was held in Sana'a multi-million protest whose participants condemned the decision of the Parliament of the judicial immunity of Saleh and claimed its abolition. On the same day the former Yemeni President Saleh has left the government, descending on healing in the United States and officially transferred all the features and. about. President al-Hadi. Saleh has said he wants to come back in February, before the scheduled 2012 elections as the Managing General People's Congress party.


In Egypt, summed up the ending on elections of deputies to the National Assembly. The majority of seats in the lower house of the Egyptian parliament were Muslim party. Freedom and Justice Party (the political wing of the "Muslim Brotherhood") has received 235 out of 498 parliamentary seats chosen (47.18%). Second place was limited Salafist party "An-Nur" — 127 seats (about 24% of the seats). Only the third place, with a significant margin of Islamist parties, the Liberal Party has received the "New Wafd" — 36 seats (about 9%). Other places in the National Assembly received small party. In addition, in accordance with the law of the land, and another 10 MPs (among them five Christians) proclaimed the acting head of the country's Marshal Tantawi.

Meanwhile, on January 20 at the Metropolitan Tahrir Square again began mass protests, their organizers constructive youth movements. The participants of rallies require immediate resignation of the military government and the transfer of power to civilian leaders in the country. With all of this leading political force Egypt — "Muslim Brotherhood" — said they did not support the demand of young people to start "a new wave of revolution" and the immediate withdrawal of the ruling in Egypt, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces retired. January 22 Marshal Tantawi pardoned about 2 thousand protesters who had previously been convicted by military courts.

Marshal Tantawi visited Libya, where they signed an agreement on the active participation of Egypt in the country's reconstruction. And it is in such areas as telecommunications, electricity, education, health, housing. The head of Libya's interim government, AR al-Kib promised that Tripoli will retain a "successful" investment era of Muammar Gaddafi in the Egyptian national economy.

January 23 revealed the first since the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak session of the lower house of parliament. Speaker was elected secretary general of "Freedom and Justice Party" Mohammed Saad el-Katatni.


Libya continued fever, there are clashes between supporters of Gaddafi ("green") and the new authorities. Also, between the favorites. January 21 hundreds of armed Libyans who were dissatisfied with the overall situation, broke ground on the complex of government buildings in Benghazi and claimed a meeting with representatives of the government of the Transitional Council (NTC). January 22 the number of demonstrators headed for 4 thousand people. The inhabitants of Benghazi protest is about 2-weeks, pushing the interim government requirements to accelerate reform, greater transparency of its operations, etc. Under pressure from demonstrators retired deputy head of Libya's NTC A. Ghoga. In addition, in Benghazi, a mass protest Islamists, they insist, that brand new constitution of Libya was established by the laws of Sharia.

January 23, there were reports that supporters of the deceased Muammar Gaddafi took control of their own city of Beni Walid, or part of it, including the center. Fights with "green resistance" marked in Tripoli and in the desert south of Sabha.

Some sources said that in Libya spanned 12 thousand contingent of U.S. troops. They should take custody of strategic assets — oil factories, pipelines and oil fields. Also beyond the control of NTC troops defeat. Role in military operations shall also Italy and Switzerland.


The country has thwarted new large-scale terrorist attack. Security forces found and defused a 10 car bombs in the town of Kano.
This town is already "famous" so that on January 20 there was a series of bombings and attacks, during which at last count had only killed 215 people. Responsibility for a large-scale terrorist attack has taken the extremist Muslim organization "Boko Haram".

In addition, the authorities have made a number of arrests of suspected teraktav January 20, the search for the organizers of the bombings last.


January 20 management of Southern Sudan has given an indication for 2-weeks minimize oil production in the country due to the fact that Northern Sudan withdraws part of going on sale in South Sudan oil (in South Sudan there is no way directly to the buyers) in payment of the debt for the implementation of its infrastructure . South Sudanese government has accused Khartoum that he "stole" her oil to the amount of 350 million U.S. dollars and keeps tankers with "black gold" in the amount of 400 million dollars. In response, Khartoum said Juba should pay him more than 1 billion. bucks for the introduction of a system of pipelines and port services. The negotiations on the oil issue, which had to go through last week in Addis Ababa, were thwarted. In Southern Sudan, issued a statement that they will continue the dialogue with the North Sudan on all outstanding issues.

It must be said that both Khartoum and Juba are facing the problem of not only the pending oboestoronnih issues, and the war with the rebels and separatists, tribal conflicts.


All of December 2011 there were fights between the low intensity of the movement of Islamic militants constructive "Al-Shabab" ("The People's Mujahideen Movement"), which are kept under control by significant area of the region in the central and southern parts of Somalia and the transitional government troops and African peacekeepers (the center of the country ), the forces of Kenya (in the south), the forces of Ethiopia (in the west). Due to the forces of Kenya UN peacekeeping force has grown to 12 thousand people. The command of the contingent of African peacekeepers in Somalia (AMISOM) peacekeepers housing offers increment up to 20 thousand people. In late December of the AMIS included 200 fighter from Djibouti, just out of this country are going to introduce 850 soldiers. In the spring of 2012 in Somalia are planning to introduce 850 soldier from Sierra Leone.

London said that in February 2012, plans to hold an international conference on Somalia. The main objective of the conference — "International policy coordination" in respect of this country, converted into "a base for terrorists." According to the representative of the British Foreign Ministry, "Somalia poses a significant threat to international security, providing a base for terrorists and pirates, and it may not last beyond."

December 30, 2011 in the German Foreign Ministry said that the European Alliance plans to expand its anti-piracy operations in the Horn of Africa, "up to the beaches of Somalia." So Makarov, for the first time mentioned the possibility of ground support operations against Somali pirates Fri. The operation of the Naval Forces of the EU "Atalanta" deployed in the Gulf of Aden since the end of 2008, right up to the nearest time was only carried out in the sea area adjacent to the coast of Somalia and in the Indian Ocean. In the German Foreign Ministry said that the works of the EU force will focus "on the destruction of terrestrial infrastructure pirates" and does not represent the continued presence of troops on Somali countryside.

European Alliance

European Union, following the lead of the U.S., over Iran and other issues for himself digging the grave. Union Euro crisis can not be solved in the current political-economic "matrix," they say about it and appear one after the pessimistic forecasts.

Australian analysts have warned about the future, "Evrogeddone" ("Apocalypse"). According to professionals in the Australian group Deloitte-Access Economics, the continuation of the debt crisis in the euro area, increased recession and instability of the banking system will lead to "Evrogeddonu." Australian experts believe that in 2012 due to the crisis in the EU will drop the demand for drug products, raw materials, energoelementy (including steel and coal). Stronger than all of Europe will suffer a recession in China, since the fall demand for its products.

Is negative for the EU and the IMF forecast preparation. International monetary Fund cut its global growth forecast for 2012 from 4% to 3.3% of IMF experts believe that the EU will enter a phase of re-recession. The Fund now predicts a decrease in the GDP of the euro area in 2012, up 0.5% against the growth of 1.1%, which was expected in September 2011. According to experts the IMF, Italy and Spain recession will last two years. The Italian economy in 2012 will fall by 2.2%, and Spanish will decrease by 1.7%.

Our homeland has supported Iran and Syria

Russian Foreign Ministry expressed regret and concern for new sanctions against Iran. It is "an attempt to stifle entire industries," the Iranian economy, according to a commentary Department of disk imaging and printing (DIP) Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. We litsezreem "frank pressure and diktat," zeal to punish Tehran for inappeasable behavior. It is "deeply wrong line", as Our homeland has repeatedly warned European countries.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov on January 18 again confirmed that Moscow rejects any foreign military intervention in the Syrian government and calls for a peaceful way out of the crisis of political and diplomatic dialogue.

The message from the Russian Foreign Ministry said on January 23 that in Russia are glad the League of resolving the situation in Syria "no external dictates." According to the views of Moscow, "we can not allow the situation to the sliding scale armed conflict, right up to the civilian war with ethnic and religious overtones."

January 23 Our homeland has confirmed its position on Syria that approved the deal on the sale of the Syrian armed forces 36 trainer aircraft Yak-130. Agreement price 550 million dollars.

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