For a start — a real world situation. Aggregate demand falls, creating obschedepressionnuyu situation in the world economy, which in every moment ready to fall from the latent (in which the nominal growth numbers have their place but are likely to be associated more with understating inflation than impartial positive processes) to go into a recession recognized. European Union (more precisely, the euro zone) has already moved to outright stimulus measures by typing at the end of 2011 instantly over 700 billion euros (one trillion dollars!), The United States are kept.
Note that such growth Liquidity in the EU almost certainly will break the American economy, as funds were not citizens, which could izderzhat them to buy European products, and banks in which these features, except in monetary speculation, there is nowhere else to put. As the largest financial markets in the U.S., there, to a large extent, they are likely to arrive, and by creating a "Margin of safety" for the U.S. economy, providing at least the absence of obvious trend of decline that appeared in the late summer — early illumine the past year.
It may very well be, will allow the U.S. to delay the start of its own equity programs, which, nevertheless, at some point will have to take. In the end, the election did not vote banks, and ordinary consumers, for which, of course, the visibility of economic activity, which manifests itself in the stock market and other markets, critical, but, nevertheless, far more important than their own financial condition. And there are no illusions can not be — it is getting worse.
With all this the beginning of his issue with the sharp increase in the budget may provide social benefits for some time before the start of serious inflation, make the American household (read: voters) began illusion of growth — that seriously to increment the chances of re-election of the current administration. For this reason, I believe that in the summer issue of the U.S. monetary authorities did begin. But before that — it is necessary that the money markets are not fell into a tailspin, as it almost did not happen in August — September.
To achieve this tasks they need not only the presence of a certain amount of liquidity (which partly provided them with the euro area), and some symbolic actions that would support the speculative markets. In this sense, the "saber-rattling" in the neighborhood of the world center of oil production is actually perfect for this. Oil prices at all that dramatically grow (and they are really in the last two weeks have grown seriously) speculative markets come alive, President Obama can re-appear on TV screens — in general, from the standpoint of the current U.S. government, full of grandeur.
Obviously, growing up in oil prices, and the means and the gasoline will cause some dissatisfaction with consumers, but it's not very scary, if this growth is unimportant — the elections and prices will be lowered a little. The main thing — that this growth was not very great. For this (and for many other reasons) of a real war with Iran, the United States did not have what they were, by the way, not once warned Israel which ready to make a variety of unsafe acts.
Now a look at the situation from the other side. Iran is one of the world's largest oil exporters, and rising oil prices are completely satisfied with it. Sanctions against him seem pathetic — China is ready to buy at least all of Iranian oil, and of our home here can have their say. Market Oil is a global, a small change in the logistics related to the fact that the EU refuses to take concrete Iran oil, not affect the situation in the markets.
At the theoretical level, unsafe for Iran can become a naval blockade the coast — but not the U.S., it is impossible, and the United States, apparently, not very slow to organize it. But just in case Iran showed that the blockade will not come cheap cost the global economy — and I think his warning spetsy closely analyzed. What actually they were manufactured. But in the newspaper just got a pointed-raising part — and this caused, namely, the rise in oil prices.
In general, all participants (not including oil consumers) are satisfied, and only one question — and if they could come to an agreement? The answer to this question is quite normal: even in the 80s, particularly after the Iranian revolution and the seizure of American hostages intelligence Iran and the United States got along well together — quite remember the unfortunate deal "the Iran — Contra affair." So we agree with them had all the skills, but if they did it in practice — we know very late.
Obviously, in the mass media about the ability of such collusion did not write, because it can mess with the "white robes" "civilized liberals." True, people who think after the operation in Libya, there is not much behold the pure white color, as these are based on the most odezhki just blood, but the mass media is not designed for thinking people. And all the others read about the "build-up of tension" in the Persian Gulf — and with the knowledge perceived rise in oil and gasoline.
In conclusion, I repeat: all of the above — just my personal guess, I could be wrong. In general, in the coming months, we will get a certain amount, albeit indirect, evidence. Or, conversely, refutations.