Yemen will become the third state where the defeated Arab Smoot?

Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, apparently, will be the third president who will lose power as a result of mass popular demonstrations. Saleh expressed his willingness to resign before the end of 2011, passing the board specially made by the military council. This is with reference to its representative at Tuesday, March 22, reports The Wall Street Journal.

His resignation would be premature: the next presidential elections in Yemen to be held in 2013. Earlier Yemen favorite than once rejected the claims made opposition, promising to finalize before the end of his own life.

The opposition, which has supported the army, the bureaucracy and the favorites of tribes and clans, this assignment is not enough, they demand the immediate resignation. Saleh has made an appeal to the favorites of local clans, the president urged not to allow municipal coup, because it can lead to civilian war.

Yemen will be the third country where the Arab Smoot won?

The situation worsens for Saleh that the West, represented by the European Union supported the opposition. March 21-22, immediately several prominent members of the European Union have criticized the aggressive acts of the Yemeni authorities, practically speaking on the side of the opposition. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of France Alain Juppe said that the departure of President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen "inevitable." In fact, in the same spirit characterized the situation and the British Prime Minister David Cameron, who said that Yemenis need katigorichnye reform.

Saleh is not going to give in, repeats the speech Gaddafi says that the armed forces and most of the people behind it, and the same "who are calling for chaos, hatred and sabotage, are a tiny minority." Also, the states and the danger of civilian war.

The main reasons which depend on the follow-

Army

Almost army split, the Republican Guard, commanded scion president, took up defensive positions around the presidential palace in the capital town of San.

Against them took up positions of subordinate General Ali Mohsen, who is the half-brother of the president and commander of the North-West Division and the First Brigade. He opposed the president and supported the opposition, Mohsen known for his Islamist positions and is opposed to cooperation with the United States.

Tribes

They represent a major force because armed (including heavy weapons), and combat-ready, even defeating parts of Saud.

Sheikh Hamid al-Ahmar, who has ruled naikrupneyshey tribal confederation in the country — the Hashid, also the head of the main opposition party in the country, came out against Saleh. Apparently, he claims to power in Yemen, the situation is to be seized, there was a successful one.

But there are other tribes who do not like Hamid al-Ahmar, a confederation of tribes Bakil that compete with tribal group Hashid and is not willing to Al-Ahmar came to power. In other words, Saleh can maneuver.

Saudi Arabia

Yemen to Saudi once their sphere of influence and territory capable of causing the death of their country, "tinderbox" that could undermine the entire Arabian Peninsula. The coming to power of Islamists in Yemen is very complicate life for Riyadh. Yes, and they do not support the Saleh hunting, developing a strategy of change of power, that they came to power, the Islamists and plainclothes started a war that could ignite all of Arabia.

According to the views of the President of the Institute for Near East Yevgeny Satanovsky:

— President Saleh end. Now it is clear for sure. Circumstances that a little. Almost all of it himself entangled in the policy which he led, maneuvering between Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the U.S. and its tribal summit. Separatism the south, after the forcible accession to the north, with 20 years saudiyskih means more or less managed to drown.

But there were a lot of unhealthy places in Yemen, which are now given a point to know. Among them, notably the fall of the country's income, caused, on the one hand, the depletion of oil fields, and on the other hand — the population explosion.

As you know, the elite have inclined to the central government until such time as she gets from her agent. With this, Saleh badly, and now elite is willing to put his gun against. And armed with the families very well, right up to the launch of "land-to-earth." In the last years of their generously supplied the weapon of the USSR, China and Egypt.

— And what will happen after Saleh? And whether these new powers to correct the situation?

— Most likely, Yemen as a united country will be gone. First break away south. Following go inland province, where tribal groups have dominion. In other words, the order of the day or Somalization country with all its consequences. For example, to the south of Yemenis is a highly contagious example of Somalis, producing for themselves bread and butter grips oil tankers coming to the West from the Persian Gulf.

Those who are to replace Saleh, not the Lord God, and not from anything they fail to do no bread, no jobs. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that after a year of water supplies in Sana'a absolutely exhausted. In this regard, we should expect deterioration of the situation on the Arabian Peninsula.

As for Saudi Arabia, there is also restless. In Shia areas are mass demonstrations. It is significant that saudiyskie Shiites oppose Riyadh under Bahraini flags. Add to this explosive situation on saudiyskoy-Yemeni border, where a year earlier Guard of Saudi Arabia was powerless to overcome local Shiite militias. And in general, the poor Yemenis are looking at their own zazhirevshih saudiyskih neighbors with undisguised anger.

You can also wait for the opening frozen in 1982 Dofurskogo front in the adjacent Oman, where separatist sentiment is also strong. Overall, future states of the Arabian Peninsula is very, very vague.

— The position of the West in relation to the events of the Yemeni looks amazing. Whatever Saleh, he joined voedinyzhdy country, stuffed with a tool, keeping radicals and fought with "al-Qaeda" …

— In-1's, Americans give to yourself aware of the fact that the Yemeni "Al Qaeda" is not really such a big threat, and that Saleh, who asked them for help, just need money.

And in-2, is not to be found in the actions of Western logic. Those who surround Obama, Cameron, Sarkozy, consider themselves to be absolute experts. Yes, they have graduated from the most famous schools in the world. Yet, on the basis of what they do, they can be compared with children with downs. No, do not think that this is some ruthless animals who dreams to destroy all the inhabitants of third States. Obviously, doing something outside the West, they do not forgets the interests of its own energy companies. But in the long run, their actions would turn against the Western states.

The fact is that they are likened to the Communists with their utopian ideas of a society where there is no exploitation of man by man, and where will flow rivers of milk and honey in the banks.

They differ from Lenin and the other leaders consists in the fact that the main idea of their own they consider planting democracy, wholeheartedly believing that it is good. However, they do not do justice to themselves report that democracy in most of the Third World is reduced to the right of the majority to kill a minority. And that Democracy opens the way to power
of radical Islamists
(Http://www.pravda.ru/world/asia/middleeast/22-03-2011/1071050-saleh-0/).

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