The main objective of the United States in the coming decades — is to restore the viability of the idea of "Big West" while promoting and maintaining its complex balance in the East with the global gain of China. If the United States acts to expand the West, from North America and Europe towards Eurasia (with the following inclusion of Turkey and the Russian Federation) until the land of the rising sun, and South Korea will be crowned with success, it will contribute to the growth of the attractiveness of the core values of the West for other cultures and the gradual emergence of a universal democratic culture .
At the same time, the United States should continue cooperation with the economically vibrant but potentially contentious East. If the U.S. and China will be able to agree on a range of issues, the prospects for stability in Asia will grow significantly. In particular, if the United States will achieve genuine reconciliation between China and Japan and mitigate the growing rivalry between China and India.
To successfully conduct interaction with both the western and the eastern part of the continent itself strategically in principle, as Eurasia, the United States needs to tackle the dual task: to play the role of a conductor and a guarantor of the broader and firm unity of the West, also perform the function of a peacemaker, preserving a balance between the powers naikrupneyshimi East. Both America's mission is very important and complement each other. But to succeed in both directions and to win the confidence of all, the U.S. must show the will to inner renewal. The Yankees need to pay more attention to more spicy nuances of state power, such as an innovator, education, the balance of force and diplomacy, and the quality of political governance.
To cope with the role of the conductor and the guarantor refreshed ideas of the West, the United States should maintain a tight fit ties with Europe, be sure to observe the commitments to NATO and the Europeans manage with the gradual involvement of Turkey and really democratizes of in the Western society. Active European security will help ensure Washington's geopolitical relevance of the West. Fundamentally contribute more profound integration in the Euro Union: close cooperation between France, Germany and Britain — the central political, economic and military echelon of the Old World — should be continued and expanded.
Interaction with Russia, while maintaining a tight fit unity of Western society will claim constructive efforts on the part of Paris, Berlin and Warsaw in facilitating the ongoing, yet still ephemeral reconciliation of Poland and Russia. With the support of the European Union Russian-Polish reconciliation could be following the example of the German-Polish become really vseobyatnym. All the more so that the two processes should reinforce the stability of Europe. But for that to Russian-Polish reconciliation deepened, the process should go to the intergovernmental level to the public for the expansion of cultural ties and making the life of joint initiatives in the field of education. Mutually beneficial trade-offs between governments, which are not supported by basic changes in attitudes and minds of ordinary people will not be strong and long-lasting. The model could serve as a Franco-German affairs after the end of the second world war. The initiative, born in the highest political circles in Paris and Bonn, which has taken root in society and culture and everyday life.
As the United States and Europe are trying to expand the scope of the West, the Russian Federation itself should evolve in the direction of establishing a tight fit ties with the EU. Her political management will have to recognize the fact that the country's future is very uncertain, as it remains comparable to the wilderness and undeveloped space between the rich West and East developing briskly. The situation does not change, even if the Russian Federation will lure some Central Asian countries in the Eurasian alliance that is the latest bizarre idea of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. In addition, although a significant part of the public welcomes Russian membership in the EU, ahead in their government, the majority of Russians do not give in to self report how severely many aspects of membership in the European Union, especially on the part of democratic reforms.
Convergence between the EU and Russia are likely to slip from time to time, and then again move forward, develop gradually and including transitional arrangements. According to the ability it has to take place in a public, economic, political and defense levels. You can see a number of other capacities in the area of interaction between societies, convergence of legal and constitutional systems, joint military exercises of NATO and Russian armed forces, and the creation of new institutions to coordinate policy in the West is constantly expanding. All this is to prepare for the future Russia full membership in the EU.
Completely close to reality to provide for an extension of the West after 2025. Over the next few decades, our homeland would embark on the path of democratic reforms vseobyatnyh based on laws that are compatible with the standards of the Euro Union and NATO. Meanwhile, Turkey would join the EU, and the two countries would begin integration into the transatlantic community. But even before that happens, can be fully constantly deepening geopolitical interests of the association on the role of the United States, Europe (including Turkey) and Russia. Because even though no traffic in Moscow to the West is likely to be preceded by a tight fit connection between the EU and Ukraine, in Kiev, the old capital of Kievan Rus, purposefully positioned collective advisory body (or at least first advanced the Council of Europe). It would be symbolic in light of the renovation and expansion of the West, as its newest speakers.
If the United States will not help translate the idea of enlarging West, it will lead to disastrous consequences. Revive historical mutual dislike any new conflicts of interest, formed nekompitentnye competing with the partnership. Our homeland will try to exploit its energy assets and, inspired by the disunity of the West, Ukraine is rapidly absorbed. Waking up to her imperial ambitions and instincts will lead to more chaos in the world. In search of trade and commercial benefits of inaction and some European Union countries could try to conclude bilateral agreements with Russia. Not be ruled out a scenario in which the selfish economic interests of Germany or Italy, to inspire them, for example, to develop special relations with Russia. In this case, France is likely to get close to the UK, and the two countries will begin to look askance at Germany, while Poland and the Baltic states are desperate rush to the U.S. for additional security guarantees. In the end, we did not get a new and more than strong West, and all more cracking and pessimistic Western camp.
East — a delicate
Such a fragmented the West has failed to compete with China for global leadership. Up to now, China has not shown the world the ideology that would reconcile all of his accomplishments in recent years. And the United States is trying not to put ideology at the heart of relations with China. Washington and Beijing are wise, taking the concept of "constructive partnership" in world politics. Although the U.S. has criticized human rights violations in China, they avoid the strong condemnation of the socio-economic system as
But if the United States is concerned about the extremely self-confident behavior of China, take the path of acute political confrontation with it, the possibility is high that the two countries in vvyazhutsya scary for them both ideological conflict. Washington will denounce Beijing for the commitment of despotism and undermining the economic well-being of the United States. China will explain this as a threat and China's political system, perhaps, as the desire to split the country. He, in turn, do not miss the option to recall the disposal of western dependence, appealing to the countries of the developing world, who have already made a historic choice in favor of a very aggressive case of the West in general and to the United States specifically. A similar scenario is counter-productive, it would damage the interests of both states. As can be seen, rational egoism inspires America and China to exercise restraint ideological, resist the temptation to emphasize the difference between the socio-economic systems and demonize each other.
The U.S. should take the role of guarantor of the Asian regional balance which England played in his time in the European policy of the XIX and early XX century. The United States can and should assist Asian countries do not get involved in the struggle for dominance in the region by acting as a mediator in conflict resolution and smoothing out the power imbalance between potential competitors. Washington at all it has to respect the extraordinary historical and geopolitical role of China in maintaining stability in the mainland of the Far East. Start a dialogue with China on regional stability assist to reduce the possibility of not only the US-China conflict, and mistakes in the relationship between China and Japan, China and India, and in some degree — of misunderstanding between China and Russia regarding the status of resources and self-contained Central Asia. So Makar, counterbalancing U.S. influence in Asia as a result, is also in the interests of China.
At the same time, the United States needs to recognize that stability in Asia can no longer be provided by non-Asian power — even more so a means of U.S. military action. Such efforts are not just possible would be counterproductive, and can plunge Washington into a costly remake of military scenarios of the past. This is potentially fraught with even a repetition of the disastrous events of the twentieth century in Europe. If the United States will enter into an alliance with India (or, less probably, with Vietnam) against China or anti-China will contribute to the militarization of the Land of the Rising Sun, such acts threaten unsafe escalation of mutual animosity. In the XXI century, the geopolitical balance in the Asian continent can not depend on outside military alliances with non-Asian powers.
The guiding principle of policy in Asia should be the preservation of American responsibilities in relation to the Land of the Rising Sun and South Korea, but not at the cost of being drawn into a continental war between the Asian powers. The United States was secured its position in these countries over 50 years, and in the case of some qualms about the immutability of Washington's long-term responsibilities of independence and confidence of these states, as well as America's role in the Pacific region, could be very shaken.
Especially important business between the U.S. and Japan. They should serve as a springboard for concerted efforts to promote cooperation in the triangle of the United States — Japan — China. A similar triangle would be a viable structure that can weaken the strategic concerns of Asia due to the growing presence of China. As well as political stability in Europe after the second world war would have been impossible without the gradual extension of the process of reconciliation between Germany and France, Germany and Poland and other countries, and makeup conscious of the deepening of relations between China and Japan can contribute to the stabilization in the Far East.
The reconciliation between Beijing and Tokyo in the context of the trilateral cooperation would enrich and strengthen a current US-China cooperation. China is well aware of the responsibilities of the inviolability of the United States to Japan, and that the connection between with 2 countries are sincere and deep and security of the country of the rising sun directly depends on the United States. Realizing that conflict with China would be disastrous for both sides, Tokyo also can not refute that the interaction between the U.S. and China indirectly secures itself the Land of the Rising Sun. Because Beijing should not be taken as a threat by the fact that America is fussing about peace of Tokyo, Japan should not be considered a close partnership between the United States and the PRC threat to their interests. With the deepening trilateral relations Tokyo concern over the fact that the yuan over time will become the third reserve currency of the world, could be nullified. Meanwhile rate of China's existing system of international relations will grow that the U.S. will remove anxiety about its future role.
Given the increased regional cooperation, and deepen the bilateral US-China relations have to find a solution of 3 painful problems, clouding the case between the United States and China. The first of them should be allowed in the not to distant future, the second — in the next couple of years, and the third — maybe in the future decade. In-1's, the United States should assess how suitable reconnaissance operations on the border of China's territorial waters, as well as periodic naval patrols, carried out by the United States in international waters, which are also included in the area of Chinese economic interests. Beijing takes it as a provocation. Of course, that Washington just would have reacted to similar maneuvers of other powers in a particular vicinity of its territorial waters. Moreover, the air intelligence operations inside the United States pose a severe risk of inadvertent collisions, since the Chinese Air Force usually respond to such operations by raising their own fighter planes in the air to inspect, and from time to time, and the detention of U.S. aircraft.
In-2, due to the fact that the ongoing modernization of China's military arsenal may eventually trigger all the legitimate concerns of America, including the risk of their responsibilities ahead of Japan and South Korea, the Yankees and the Chinese should hold regular consultations on a long military planning. It is necessary to search for effective measures that would assist both powers to assure each other of mutual loyalty.
B-3, a bone of contention may be the future status of Taiwan. Washington no longer recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state and shares the views of Beijing, according to which China and Taiwan — is part of a common civilization. And at the same time, the United States sell a tool to Taiwan. So Makar, at least some long-term agreement between the U.S. and China will face the fact that the separatist Taiwan, protected unlimited supply of American arms, will drive the constantly growing hostility of China. The solution to this issue by the formula of "one country — Two systems "proposed by Deng Xiaoping, the Chinese favorite, now may sound like a" one country — Several systems "can lay the foundation for the eventual reunification of Taipei and Beijing.
With all this Taiwan and China will be different on their own political, public and military device (not to mention the fact that the peninsula can not be deployed part of the People's Liberation Army of China). No matter under what formula it will happen, given the growing strength of China and the rapidly growing links between Taiwan and mainland China, it is not clear that Taipei will be able unceasingly to avoid establishing more formal relations with Beijing.
Going to cooperate
More than one and a half th
ousand years ago reversed the policy regarding the civilized parts of Europe was determined in the main co-existence of 2-different halves of the Roman Empire — the western and eastern. The Western Empire, with its capital mainly in Rome, was torn by conflicts with marauding barbarians. Rome had to constantly keep numerous garrisons abroad, to build a huge and expensive fortifications. He eventually ruptured, having suffered a political fiasco and finding themselves in the middle of V century on the brink of bankruptcy. Meanwhile, the internal conflicts between Christians and pagans undermine social cohesion and unity of the empire. A heavy tax burden and corruption led to the collapse of the economy. In 476 the murder of barbarians Romulus Augustulus agonizing Western Roman Empire collapsed completely.
In the same period, the Eastern Roman Empire, later popular as Byzantium, showed a lively urban growth and the economy and more than impressive progress on a diplomatic career and defense policies. After the fall of Rome, Byzantium flourished for several centuries. She won over some old terrain of the Western Empire and existed (though later in the criteria of constant conflicts) directly to gain the Ottoman Turks in the XV century.
Agony of Rome in the middle of the V century is not clouded over bright prospects of Byzantium, as the world in those days was geographically fragmented, and its parts are separated politically and economically. The sad fate of one does not affect the prospects and development of others. Now it is not so far away. Now that the distance does not matter to people and information is available from at least some part of the world, and monetary transactions are carried out almost simultaneously, the welfare of the more advanced countries, more is dependent on the welfare of each individual country. In our days are, in contrast to what happened a half thousand years ago, West and the East can not simply isolate themselves from each other: they are doomed or cooperation, or mutual hostility.
The book "Strategic Plan: America and the crisis of global power", on which this essay is based, will be published this winter publisher Basic Books.
Located in the journal Foreign Affairs, № 1 for 2012. © Council on Foreign Relations, Inc.