Iran. A short summary of the events. First shots made Russian

Since September last year, the case between the U.S. and Iran inexorably evolving in the direction of the war from cool to hot. This is not unusual, since such a development profitable to both warring powers.

In the United States, despite the huge cash injections into the economy, the crisis still provide about yourself to know what is fully justified dissatisfaction of voters. War has always been the best shunt to divert the mass irritation in the country with its own government not caring for the external enemy. In addition, the militarization of the economy paradoxically contributes to its development, albeit uneven, but still growth, which in today's criteria of a good thing. In addition, Barack Obama is experiencing constant pressure of a huge number of senators who say not about the need to protect Israel. And, in the end, in anticipation of future elections war — The best PR.

Iran, the true state of affairs is also profitable for many reasons. This strengthening of national unity in the face of public enemy, and the acquisition of a single style of the country, who dared to challenge the United States, and, in the end, raschudesno opportunity even in the case of minor fighting abandon the contract on non-proliferation of nuclear weapons under the guise of higher great power interests.

The first more serious course of the United States was imposing economic sanctions not only against Iran, and against the campaigns leading to trade him. For example, in the days of sanctions were imposed against several companies who dared to cooperate with the enemy the United States. This kind of policy has been quite effective. Tighter financial noose tightened on the neck of Tehran: last week, experts have documented the fall of Iran's national currency by 20% against the dollar.

To strengthen the economic pressure, the United States, with the support of the EU plan to embargo Iranian energoelementov. But there can be difficulties with the Eastern buyers of Iranian oil: China buys a fifth of Iran's oil produced and strongly protects its own supplier, advocating a peaceful resolution of the conflict, while Japan is a half-hearted attitude. The final decision on the embargo will be taken at a meeting of the EU at the end of January this year.

Iran, for its part, has threatened to respond to the embargo to block the Strait of Hormuz, through which flows more than 40% of global oil traffic — from 16 to 19 million barrels per day. For this oil aorta own product transported Iran, Iraq, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

The threat of overlapping duct forced to revise plausible alternative traffic. United Arab Emirates promise to work at an accelerated pace and in June, in other words, for half a year earlier, to commission the pipeline "Fujairah", able to take on the transport of 1.5 million barrels of oil. It is also planned to carry out a complete overhaul of the land transport system, then it will be possible to bypass the supply of about 9.5 million barrels. But in-1's, it is only just a little more than half the power of Hormuz duct, in-2, Iran might block duct in January. Speaking about the inability of other ways to make up for the traffic flow of Hormuz, should be added that apart from oil through the duct to supply liquefied natural gas from Qatar and Iran (up to 130 million cubic meters per day), not to mention the mainstream of non-oil external trade of the Gulf States, which runs it is here.

U.S. promises not under any circumstances to prevent blocking the flow. Although the military forces of Iran, of course, inferior to the United States, Tehran has set up a very hostile. Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, General Jaafari said that Iran able to lead and win the "asymmetrical warfare."

Planned mining duct, speedboats attack tankers and boats loaded with explosives. Iranian media are actively promoting its story about the impressive achievements in the development of different types of weapons, missiles first. Even if these data are exaggerated, is to draw attention to the fact that the curved duct at 200 km perfectly sweep on three sides with the Iranian countryside. This was confirmed by an additional 30 years ago during the Iran-Iraq war, when the tankers were able to pass through the Hormuz duct only under escort of U.S. warships.

As already mentioned, more suffer from overlapping duct eastern consumers — first, China and Japan, which forces these countries to take a position to protect their own prime contractor. EU countries will be less affected, since oil transported through the flow of Hormuz is only 10% of the oil consumed by them. But the overlap flow will knock first specifically to the southern EU countries, which are now, and so on the verge of default.

Our homeland, of course, is in this case in a winning position. According to the most moderate predicted to overlap the duct and the subsequent decrease in the supply of Arab oil to the world market would drive prices oil up to $ 300 per barrel.

But it should also be noted that for a long oil starvation can trigger a new round of global economic crisis and then the winners in this war just will not. On the clearance of the duct may spend a lot of time, so that oil jumped sharply in value may go down as sharply as a result of a strong industrial decline.

Need to pay tribute to the Iranian government, which has taken a lot of pretty reasonable moves to improve general style of its own in the world. In addition, Iran has taken care of on their side verbovanii strong politically and economically allies, namely the Russian Federation
Verbovanie of, ordinary ally Iran, was a coup. Evidence — the concern of the Western media, chides Russia in connivance with Tehran's nuclear program there (remember that the first nuclear power plant built specifically Iran, Russia). In addition, in support of Iran and is considered the direction of the Government of the Russian Federation Putin warships into the Mediterranean. But the greatest alarm to call for help in breaking the economic blockade in the form of a proposal by Moscow to Tehran mutual settlements in national currencies of both countries. West, Bloomberg reports that such a proposal was made to President Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Dmitry Medvedvym at a meeting in the Kazakh capital of Astana.

This assistance is regarded as the first and very successful shot in the war had not yet begun. The problem is not even in the improvement of the economic situation of Iran. The fact is that it is very, very scary precedent, because until now oil trade was carried out only for dollars. Countries are very dependent on oil imports, such as China, India, Japan, had to constantly keep at huge supplies Baksova currency. It is very supportive of the dollar exchange rate. If other oil-importing countries will follow the example of Russia and Iran, the U.S. economy will suffer serious losses. Because Western media called the agreement "the first shot in the coming war between Iran and the United States, Russian manufactured."

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