Iran and the U.S.: Who and what is frightening

I. The new package of sanctions

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak on November 29 spoke with Pentagon chief Leon Panetta and then spoke at a press conference in Washington. There he said, Iran is not going to renounce its nuclear ambitions. This country can be tightly closer to a nuclear weapon in 2013. Barak believes that nuclear Iran is moving along the path that had previously undergone Pakistan and North Korea.

But the Emperor Barack confident that other countries (the title of which he did not specify) will be able to "those in any other way" to force Iran to abandon destructive purposes. Israeli Defense Minister expressed the hope that Iran's refusal to follow the disastrous path occurs before the Islamic Republic will reach the "zone of immunity", which means the time between the enriched uranium or plutonium in an amount sufficient for the creation of at least 1st nuclear warhead. Perhaps Barack previously conferred with Netanyahu decided on the latter failed terminology ("Red Line") to abandon.

Journalists asked Barak: when, say, Iran reaches this "zone"? Having started to answer, Israeli Defense Minister to get lost in the words:

"I think that it will happen during 2013, although earlier I thought it would happen in 2012, but it did not work, and in 2011 also did not happen."

Here's such a terrible Iran. Nothing happens in the past did not happen, but we will "force" and to raise the subject of the "zone".

Defense Secretary Panetta L. read in the tone of Barack:

"The President said that we will not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon, and that remains our policy."

However, he added that "there is still time and abilities in order to try to solve the problem of diplomatic means."

"I think it would be a more desirable option for the United States and Israel" — has allocated U.S. Secretary of Defense.

And while last strangulation of Iran sanctions.

Recently the adoption of the latest round of sanctions against Iran, the United States said it would lift the consideration of the Iranian nuclear program there in the UN Security Council — in this case to Tehran in March 2013 did not begin in earnest to cooperate with the IAEA. Last week, a South American diplomat Robert Wood said this at the quarterly meeting of the agency in Vienna. His words led "Rosbalt":

"If Iran is not until March will begin a meaningful cooperation with the IAEA, the United States will insist that the Board of Governors (IAEA) reported on the lack of progress in the UN Security Council. You can not allow Iran to endlessly ignore their obligations. "

The next round of negotiations IAEA and Iran scheduled for December 13. He has to go to Tehran.

After Iran parrot complaints to the UN, the U.S. Senate voted unanimously to additional sanctions against Iran. The bill, which became part of the South American defense budget, 30 November supported 94 senators.

This does not mean that the document became law. The project still has to approve the House of Representatives. If an act of will acquire the force of law, the South American companies will be prohibited from having business relations with Iranian energy companies, seaports, shipping fleet and shipyards. Previously, Washington imposed several presidential decrees and monetary sanctions against the Iranian oil sectors of the economy.

At this point, analysts say, it is about trying to finish payment Turkey gold Iranian gas and oil. New sanctions may restrict the export and import in Iran and precious metals. The basis of the sanctions, most likely, is to strengthen the long embargo against Iran, which will be retained and for the ability to ratcheted up to such time as the Iranian economy will not fall. At the same time white-washed house counts on the impact on Iran international sanctions European Union.

As for the Turkish-Iranian deals, Turkey, as it turned out not so long ago, the general interests of the U.S. and Israel has neglected. Why not be ignored? Cases with Tel Aviv Ankara strained, and Washington, as well as Brussels, not especially Ankara helps in the fight against al-Assad. In addition, Turkey's energy needs.

II. Iranian and Turkish energy gold

In late November, Turkey had to recognize that it pays to energy supplies from Iran in gold. The fact of "barter" admitted Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan, giving a formal request economical committee of the Turkish Parliament. The fact that MPs interested reasons for the sharp increase in gold exports from the country in 2012. That's what answered Mr. Babacan:

"In fact, the export of gold (in Iran) is a form of payment for our imports of natural gas (in this country). Turkey has payments for gas supplies to Iran's bank account in the country. I still do not have any information on how the Iranians in the upcoming transfer of such payments to their country. "

The scheme has been developed that's what it is. Payment is through the State Bank «Halk Bankasi». Turkey is calculated for Iranian gas to their lyres. Bucks topics (at first glance) is not prejudiced because Iran is also squanders the Turkish lira to buy gold. Practically there is an exchange of gold for energy, lyre only plays the role of a formal equivalent. According to official data, in the first nine months of this year, Turkey has "sold" the yellow metal to Iran worth 6.4 billion. bucks.

That's why parliamentarians and interested in the outflow of gold supplies from the country. In fact for the first nine months of 2011, sales amounted to only $ 54 million. And this year, the share of Iran accounted for 60% of the total volume of gold exports from Turkey. And another 30% were in the UAE.

The Turkish government is not going to stop the deal with Iran, which successfully compensate for the harm of U.S. and European sanctions.

Energy imports from Iran last. The share of Iran's supplies account for 18% of the total of Turkey's natural gas and 51% oil.

According to the official Turkish foreign trade statistics, write analysts "Deutsche Welle" Thomas Seibert and Andrew Gurkov, part acquired gold goes to Iran via the United Arab Emirates. Apparently, bars ferry couriers on flights are in constant: the law allows carry with them 50 kg of gold for 1 person.

Here's the proof of this version: only in September Turkish exports to the UAE increased in comparison with the same period in 2011 to 452.3%. 80% of the supply — specifically gold. Experts do not vary that part of the gold and then sails away from Dubai to Tehran.

And more. Turkish exports of gold headed for such magnitude that it is permissible to reduce the disadvantage of Turkey's foreign trade. As analysts note, at the end of 2012 flaw is likely to be reduced by 20%. The country's ruling party (AKP) headed for its goal — to reincarnate gold mining in one of the strategic sectors of the national economy. So Erdogan score points.

Iranians increase trade rel
ations with the Turks. In the past year, the Iranians founded in Turkey 590 companies (up 41% compared with 2010). The total number of employees in the Turkish countryside with Iranian companies owners already have gained 2,140. The Iranians were able for a time to kutsee naikrupneyshimi foreign investors in Turkey.

At the November talks with Iranian Vice President Ali Sidle Turkish Development Minister Cevdet Yilmaz said that the volume of bilateral trade, which will be expressed this year in the amount of about 20 billion dollars, it should be faster as you can bring up to 30 billion

So Makar, Turkey and Iran are not only not going to look to the U.S., but are planning to rapidly expand cooperation.

It turns out that the Iranian president Ahmadinejad boasted friend when he said that Iran would find a way out of a difficult situation. In addition, thanks to the actions of both Iran and Turkey over the United States are now under threat, which can be characterized as the "beginning of the end of the petrodollar." The circuit operates, and will work on. Bucks it was not needed. Why buck when there is something more reliable — gold, which can "fasten" to at least some national currency? And Germany is already engaged in trade with China over the yuan, and Finland in the face of the retail chain "Stockmann" started receiving Russian rubles … Maybe the commission trading in their own currency and the BRICS countries. By the way, our homeland, and China nepoprostu increase gold in store.

Meanwhile, sending zolotishko in Iran, Turkey risks incurring the wrath of a strategic partner — the United States. True, "barter" transactions that do not have a case for international payments system SWIFT, Turkey, like as not violate any sanctions duties.

But we have told about a brand new package of U.S. sanctions, which must pass approval in the House of Representatives. There, they are unlikely to meet a lot of enemies. These sanctions may restrict the export and import of precious metals to Iran, first in gold.

But Ankara is unlikely they were afraid.

Turkish Economy Minister Zafer Caglayan has responded for information about the latest sanctions, stating that such measures of mandatory themselves for the Yankees. Like it or not, and oil and gas to Turkey needed. And cooperation that Turkey and Iran lined up the last few years, the two sides are not going to cross. The authority of a Yankee in the world with every week, getting lower and lower. And, like any other time we criticized Erdogan's sovereign, this is not like him to go in the wake of Washington.

III. What wonders Brzezinski

According to him, America can not go out after Israel Sheepish like a mule. You can not "beat the drums of war", subject to Israeli pressure in the formation of American national security policy, reads strategist. Washington should not blindly follow the Tel Aviv if Israel decides to order a one-sided attack on Iran.

Brzezinski does not recommend that President Obama plan any military action against Iran — in this case, if Israel starts a war yet. Their world political scientist stated openly at a conference held by the State Council of South America and the Association of Iran arms control.

Even if Israel storms Iran — in accordance with their ideas of "red lines" — that in this case, Zbigniew Brzezinski does not detect any "implicit obligations" for the U.S., which for some reason have to look "like a little stupid mule" for those that there is "the Israelis."

According to the views of the analyst, if the Israelis go to war on the basis of just guessing that the U.S. will be automatically drawn into it, America — as a friend of Israel, and the friendship of commitments — will have to tell him that the other is not necessary to decide for their own ally.

"I think the U.S. will have the right to have his policy of national security — said Zbigniew Brzezinski. — I think a big part of the Yankees would agree with that. So clarity on this issue is very crucial for the security of Israel … "

The invasion of Iran strategist is an act of collective suicide. The fact that in Iran make a nuclear bomb, he does not believe: after all, in this respect there is absolutely no evidence.


And — a few words in conclusion.

In the evening on November 30, it became clear that the representative Iran the IAEA, Ali Soltanieh made a statement. He said, it does not matter what kind of attack on Iran's nuclear facilities would lead to the displacement of centrifuges to enrich uranium "to safer places," and Iran will come out of contract with regard to non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. Not enough that military interventions do not suspend uranium enrichment.

At the same time the true Iran will make every effort to merit the progress in the negotiations on the nuclear issue applets. Iran, according to fellow Soltanieh, ready to "find a balanced solution to the problem."

Surveyed and translated Oleg Chuvakin
— Especially for

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