Iran and the United States: an easy game with multiple-result (continued)

The first part of the article was devoted to the analysis, from the standpoint of well-known political analyst Andrei Manoilo more possible circumstances of the ongoing deterioration of the situation in Iran and is closely related international situation in the region. The results of the last election the UN Security Council on the situation in Syria, and in particular the right of the subsequent comments that Western politicians confirmed until indirectly, outlook, objectives that the United States adamantly and in turn seek to embody.

And what about Israel, which in this situation is a bit different game? Washington is perfectly aware that an Israeli attack on Iran may become the trigger that initiates the conflict, and immediately a beautiful occasion for his intervention in the United States and NATO — of course, under the pretext of protecting its own head of strategic ally in the Middle East.

In connection with this clear statement in the address Israeli Washington that Israel does not consider it necessary to give advance notice of the Obama administration's own intentions to put warning missile strike on Iran: all that can be put to excellent performance, the draw for the European allies, Russia, China and the world public performance in general. It is understood that "scenario" Washington should remain in ignorance about the seriousness of Israel's goals and the likelihood of their realization.

In the unlikely event of Washington, who knew the exact date and time of pre-emptive strike, many questions arise: why, knowing the intentions of Israel, he did not use all of its available leverage to prevent this attack, or, at least, why Washington has not shared this information with the international community? After all, there is a speech about the dangers of modern war, perhaps even nuclear.

And so goes a common and trivial scheme: U.S. knew nothing, and Israel, horrified regular threats from Iran, started all on its own. With regard to liability, the answer is very clear here — what to take with malehankih country that is surrounded by enemies, but this is not a superpower, they're afraid of every sound.

It is no accident Sunday Telegraph notes: Israel in despair that he had "lost hope of being able to find a diplomatic solution" to Iran's nuclear programs from, and therefore decides to own steps in self-defense.

To this end, Israel November 2, 2011 has tested a ballistic missile capable of reaching the Iranian countryside, it became the first similar test in 2008. All this goes on strong Israel preparing for war against Iran, or that it is entirely possible that someone is willing to prepare this effort.

What predictions can now be made regarding future development of the situation around Iran?

Is Iran a strategic goal for the United States? Notwithstanding the severity of confrontation, Iran, the U.S. can not be a strategic goal. In fact, whole region, in which the effect claimed by Iran (Central Asia and part of the Near East), is an American foreign policy for the deepest periphery. The line of confrontation the United States and other poles of the modern world, including the Russian Federation and China, do not pass on the Middle East and even more so not in Central Asia, and on the terrain of a united Europe.

What benefits will the U.S. by destroying the Islamic regime of the mullahs? Impact in the region — can be. But most likely, China will take this niche even faster Yankees, in addition, it is close. Control over Iranian oil — by all means. But U.S. companies have at the moment are kept under the control of large supplies of energy resources of Iraq, Libya and other countries. Iranian crude oil produced at the cost of the war, they, in fact useless.

Control of the Strait of Hormuz, which is the main transit artery for oil suppliers from the Gulf region — is very possible. Although this control and so, to a certain extent, provided for their U.S. military presence in the region and a strong group of warships and military potential allies among the Arab states that have proven their loyalty to the military campaigns in Iraq and Libya.

U.S. wants to eliminate the threat from Iran's nuclear program working? Rather, the U.S. is clearly not an end in itself. Without modern nuclear technology Iran will not create competitive nuclear weapon, for which, besides the charge requires more perfect carrier that owns the necessary accuracy, reliability, and to overcome the system of air and missile defense.

What is the purpose of a U.S. confrontation with Iran, with the highest probability for the next large-scale armed conflict that is likely to be much larger and more dangerous than the Vietnamese?

More than a trivial answer can be found in the disposition of U.S. relations with China, a major competitor and rival of America on the world stage. Today's U.S. business and China have the formula of "constructive engagement", in which an important role is played by the paradigm of peaceful co-existence of 2-powers. In almost all such things profitably China which not yet a superpower can not compete with the United States nor in terms of GDP, nor in the military or in cash.

But the existing gap between the U.S. and China in these areas is rapidly declining. The Chinese economy is moving forward rapidly cyclopean, the yuan has become a regional currency and in the areas of primary influence of China uniformly constricts dollar and the yen. And given the fact that in 2017 China completes the all-encompassing re-PLA, the then cope with it will be very hard.

Understand it and the United States. And, apparently, preparing for the future military conflict with growing global power, which will soon probably want to declare for themselves in a new status.

Coupled with the fact to make the call history of China to the United States to re-gain economic power. It expects to Washington by a new breakthrough in the industrial and financial development that is fully real time, but asks that States must win against China by slowing its development. A possible way to merit this purpose — to block the supply of hydrocarbons to China, without which the rapidly growing Chinese economy will suffocate.

And it is in this direction the U.S. for nearly all do. Thus, the plain-clothes war and foreign intervention in Libya has brought to power a pro-American puppet regime, which is also cut off the supply of oil to China. Previously, under Gaddafi, China received from Libya to 13% of the oil it required. Another source of oil, Darfur (Sudan rebel province) during the temporary truce between the peasants and nomads truck arabosudantsami give China up to 18% of the total volume of its oil. But not so long ago, the situation in Darfur deteriorated again and at the moment there with the power of the latest war broke out civilian clothes. These exacerbations civilian war in Sudan do not happen without the South American role supporting the rebels, troops arabosudantsev, in turn, supports the initiative China.

Another source of oil, Iran provides its supplies 26% of China's economy energoelementov necessary. In this sense, becomes completely understandable enthusiasm for the U.S. to supply the Iranian oil and gas to China. In the case of overlapping of the arteries China will experience an obvious lack of hydrocarbons and samples to make up the loss of capacity of oil and gas from Central Asia can be confronted by the latest wave of color revolutions, not just a walk in the area. In this sense, it is clear desire to impose on U.S. Iran new sanctions by banning all importers, including China, to take Iran oil.

Based on these insights, imposed two possible scenarios for the development of the situation with Iran.

First scenario will be played if the United States that China will join the sanctions against Iran and voluntarily give up the supply of Iranian oil, in other words for himself overrides actual important for its economy artery transit of hydrocarbons. In the event of war, most likely, there will be: Iran for the U.S., most likely, not an end in itself, but only the figure played out their strategy formulation.

Second scenario will come into effect in this case, if China ignores U.S. demand and as before will buy Iranian oil. The United States was likely to try to cut this artery of China's economy by force, disposing with Iran during the military operation frisky: Iran, for all sufficiently superior combat capability of the army and its presence at his disposal yet another, the other army, the armed forces — the Army of the Guardians Islamic revolution, hardly able to protect itself from that blow.

But the main condition for the start of such operations is a reliable back in what now remains only one nezamirenny tinderbox — Syria, led by Bashar al-Assad. Because, as it is finished, there may come the turn of Iran. It should be noted that the restructuring of the economy and monetary system, the U.S. has already begun: a controlled monetary crisis has permitted Washington to consolidate all the money in the hands of the country's 3 largest banks, where they are easier to mobilize at least some merit to the global goal. It is easy to check that such processes in American history also took place in front with 2 world wars — the first and the second.

So it's all the same — a sign that the U.S. is preparing for the next world war? If so, then — with whom? These questions will give clear answers to time.

Like this post? Please share to your friends: