Iran: at the generals bravado — atomic root?

Kicking off on September 16 teaching IMCMEX-2012 at the Strait of Hormuz some experts believe not only a show of force coalition forces, and the prologue to a strike on Iran.

In a 12-day maneuvers involving ships from 25 countries (according to other sources — more than 30), led by the United States. On this occasion, the first vice-president of the Russian Academy of Geopolitical problems Konstantin Sivkov said, that "exercises designed to practice joint actions naval forces, air force, marines of various countries in solving quite complex puzzles unlock Strait. I believe that is the main purpose of the exercise — specifically that. " And on May 20 of a strong coalition means that the U.S. has amassed in his own anti-Iran plans, believes Sivkov.

As for the determination of the West and Israel strike strike Iran's nuclear facilities, it would, according to the views of a professional, "sufficiently large". Now, however, "in the military-strategic terms necessary for the effective strike on Iran forces there." The creation of such forces "will require significant material resources, significant monetary investment, the criteria of the crisis it is very difficult for the West. As for Iran, Iran fails to reflect the impact of aviation groups numbering from 300 to 500 cars. " For a large number of attacking aircraft, "somewhere around 1.5-2 thousand machines, air defense forces Iran will be suppressed, and the task of nuclear programs from the defeat of Iran can be resolved. But 1.5-2 thousand cars — this is a very ambitious group, which at this stage is not created. " A "300-500 cars, mind you, that's a lot to be focused almost 80 percent of the U.S. aircraft carrier fleet."

Because, says the analyst, the operation against Iran would be disastrous. Another thing — the raids, like the attacks on Tripoli and Benghazi (1982) — such attacks on Sivkova, likely.

In general, experts and rumors about an immediate attack on Iran. That's another thing — after the U.S. elections, more precisely, after the New Year, after the inauguration of the South American president. Especially if this will become combative Mitt Romney. Then certainly someone by someone banging.

In September, members of the club at the Luxembourg meeting in Geneva lot read as that the attack on Iran's nuclear facilities would still be applied. And it can happen just after the inauguration of the new U.S. president. It foresaw the retired generals.

Recognized expert, manager of the Institute of Near East Eugene Satanovskiy considers, that "the maximum possibility of aggravation of the situation in Iran — between January and July, but that does not mean it will not happen before." Outlook, of course, very vague.

In the case of "aggravation" Iran could have a preventive strike. On the days of Brigadier General of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Amir Ali Hajizadeh expressed on the subject of war. Her Tehran will not start, but it can preemptively knock on Israel — even as he "buried a hand" to attack. And at once Iran stormed the U.S. base in Bahrain, Qatar and Afghanistan. And in general, the general said, the enemies of the Islamic Republic is not able to evaluate all of its military power.

From time to time — and, perhaps, quite often — it seems that the Iranian military underestimate the enemy. For example, the deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guard Hossein Salami said that to Iran Israel does not pose any danger, because he did not cope with the Palestinians in the state. "It is enough infantry battalion, that one day kill this so referred to as the backbone of the state, the width of which in some places does not exceed 24 kilometers," — said Salami.

So Makar, note if the Iranians for Israel as if quite Battalion detained, then, to cope with the U.S., Iran will first show Bahrain, Qatar and Afghanistan, what's what. This is not to mention the blocking of Hormuz, where at the moment of friction to make war with Iran Navy 25 states.

Related Iranian bravado (in general, plain) against the European and American sanctions and threats of Israeli policy looks at least unusual. In addition, the Air Force Tehran already outdated (As opposed to Israeli) missiles "Shahab-3" to Israel not fly so far, and rockets «Sejil» (able to travel a distance greater than 2000 km) — fly so far, but their accuracy leaves much to be desired (as if Tehran does not get to the Palestinian Authority) . Possible pre-emptive strikes will probably beats "Hezbollah" in the Israeli countryside, but the Israelis know how to beat it, "dome", shelter, and other retaliatory missiles.

So bravado. On the military action Iran is capable of, and to produce them in the case of anger may be. But to act immediately on 5 fronts — in Israel, Bahrain, Qatar, Afghanistan, and the Strait of Hormuz, which would have mine, Iran simply fails. And he can not afford to stand against the coalition of 25-30 countries.

What did caused such bravado generals and high-ranking officials of Iran? The answer here is one: work on developing nuclear weapons. Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, most likely, right, and six months later, Tehran will make a corresponding ad.

One may fluctuate in it, but Tehran has only one method to prevent or halt military anger: to declare a nuclear bomb. Ahmadinejad probably heard about the fate of Hussein and Gaddafi and knows what is happening in Syria, where wage war on the side of Assad including IRGC units. To avoid the pitfalls of "democratizers," the president of Iran went on affirmative action by the international community for some reason do not want to recognize the activities in the area of the "peaceful atom." After all, the U.S. did not agree well in North Korea, and Israel also have nuclear weapon.

If we admit that the official representatives of Iran, for example, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Fereydoon Abbasi-Davani, they say the truth, and Tehran is not going to enrich uranium beyond 20% (well, it is because of the inability — due to one-sided sanctions imposed by Western states — to get on the world market required for the Tehran research reactor, 20 percent nuclear fuel), but in general enriches only up to 3.5% Iranian military bravado that does not look very well. In fact, it's just words on a background of harsh military exercises conducted an anti-Iranian coalition in the Strait of Hormuz. And these words are no more statements if nedavneshnie Kim Jong Un on the planned missile hit the offices of South Korean media properly illuminate the celebrations in Pyongyang.

By the way, in Israel, far not all believe in the Islamic Republic of Iran at the moment to build an atomic weapon. In an interview with «Haaretz» Chief of General Staff Benny Gantz said, that Iran is not trying to make an atomic bomb, "Iran is gradually approaching the time when he will be able to begin production of the atomic bomb. He has not yet decided whether to take the plunge this. While its installation standards are not bombs, but this programm is very vulnerable to the Iranian point of view. If the ultimate corporate Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will want it, he can give the order to build an atomic bomb, but first he has to make a decision. So it will be, if Khomeini
considers that he was invincible in a retaliatory strike. I think he would have made a huge mistake, and I do not think he will make a decisive step in this direction. I think that the Iranian government has a very sober-minded people. But I agree with the fact that such power is not safe in the hands of Islamic fundamentalists who in special cases, could have a different calculation. "

The myth of Iran's military nuclear program there, said V. Mikhin, fabricated the Anglo-Saxons — after the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq. "The strategic plan of the West — writes He — he divined the coming takeover of Iran in the areas of pliers with 2-adjacent states and full control over the state, its economy and politics as it was in the days of the Shah. At the time, Britain and the U.S. intelligence services have spread false information about the so-called. Tehran's nuclear program there, as they did with respect to an imaginary weapons of mass destruction programs from Saddam Hussein. "

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the UN General Assembly, where he was to debate the "nuclear issue" has already made a number of statements. By the way, America met fellow Ahmadinejad and his people unfriendly: U.S. not given 20 visas to representatives of Iran, intending to participate in the General Assembly, and the inhabitants of New York came out with placards: "Ahmadinejad is not the case in New York," and claimed to expel Iranian delegation from the United States. (South American "hospitality", leg-arm which springs directly from the American propaganda is, of course, a decent response all over the world).

Ahmadinejad, as expected, made criticism of Israel: "We litsezreem that some members of the Security Council with veto power, have decided to close our eyes to the nuclear warheads of the 1st lime regime. At the same time they impede scientific progress in other countries. "

Iranian President tried to break through a thick barrier of Western propaganda, contacting journalists with subsequent diatribe: "If someone invades and occupies the United States of destroying the house with the children and ladies, landing in jail young Yankees, unleashing five different wars with its neighbors and threatening to others, what do you do?! What do you have uttered? You will help this country? Or you can help the people of the United States?! "And further:" Why does the world can tolerate such danger to the address of the country with deep roots and history, like Iran? Majestic country. Do you think that country "X" can claim that stormed the country "igrek" only on the basis of suspicion that she is doing something inappropriate? This may be the formula for the management of the world? "

As for the "nuclear issue", then it is not, because Iran was ready and at the moment ready make a deal with the West: "We have no problems with her discussion, we always want dialogue. We have a clear logic: we are convinced that if everyone would stick shaped as letters of the law and any party to respect the other, there will be no conflict. "

But the West is not enough, considers Ahmadinejad. The purpose of the West — no not the "nuclear issue", and the overthrow of the Iranian government and the establishment of its own order in the region. "Do you believe in fact that the nuclear program there the whole root prepyadstviya? Do you believe that we have several tons of uranium enriched to 3.5%? And you also believe that it is only the only the problem for anyone who has a tremendous pressure on us? .. "

On another occasion, referring to the press, Ahmadinejad claimed from the IAEA, that the agency was engaged in Israel, which does not allow any inspectors to inspect its nuclear facilities. Enthusiasm for work Iran while completely ignoring Israel's nuclear weapons Ahmadinejad referred to "evidence of double standards," the UN agency on atomic energy.

So Makar, around the "nuclear issue" Iran has accumulated so much expression, coupled with a lot of speculation, beliefs and absurd rumors, cool priperchennyh unsafe military rhetoric of both Israel and Iran, which predict the possibility of a war between the forces of the Israeli-Western coalition and the Islamic Republic — employment very nepriznatelnoe.

One thing is clear: if Ahmadinejad and his generals they say about defense, Israel and the West on a small lead at the IAEA, which is in full cheeks dudyat horns in anger. The tendency of the West to the bombings and interventions emphasize not only and not so much exercise in the Strait of Hormuz as the last U.S. military operations and NATO in the Middle East, the fire of the "Arab Spring" and the support of the "opposition" in Syria (where, by the way, Americans also began reinforced search for WMD). President Ahmadinejad can not lust after their own country the fate of Iraq or Libya.

Oleg surveyed Chuvakin
— Especially for

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