Iran: Bomb better than war?

Against the backdrop of a new dialogue Iran with the IAEA and the impending negotiations with the "six" Iranian issue has again become what it was, to date. In this review, we consider several different views on the likely conflict between Iran and Israel and the United States — from the "end of the world" to a sober assessment of why Iran with a nuclear bomb is not more dangerous than Iran without the bomb.

I. Destruction of America, Israel, NATO countries, Afghanistan, Eastern Europe and the planet Earth

Blogger Alexander Higgins writes"By all means, though, and under the pretext of how likely the Pentagon conducted military training. Israel launched its missile defense system "Iron Dome." Senior military officials have given a guarantee that the fleet assembled in the Persian Gulf, is able to neutralize the threat of Iranian Navy and mines deployed in the Strait of Hormuz. United States and its allies have completed the import of Iranian oil and seek an assurance from Saudi Arabia that the loss of Iranian oil will be compensated. For the 10-s of military bases surrounding Iran, plans were made for a strike. Weave the warheads "Tomahawk" were assigned goals in the infrastructure with the defeat of the Iranian defense purposes should be destroyed. Were adopted by thousands of unmanned spy who look for every inch of the land of Iran in real time. Bombers "Stealth" flight plans were accompanied by B-52 bombers. Journalists are already in place, ready to carry on reporting. The stage is set, all systems on the go … "

Well everyone, it seems. Day, a maximum of two — and ultimately the well-planned blitzkrieg XXI century from Iran will only be working for the U.S. oil fields.

And no. Higgins leads to the fact that the embers remain from the U.S. — is just the latest to poke the Iranian countryside. Although from the air, at least on the ground. The result will be: "Obama kaput."

Why, in the probable war Iran will overcome? Higgins calls exactly 10 circumstances.

1. South American development "Stealth", which now has an opponent. It was not so long ago picked up the fallen drone Iran invisibility and soon said that the development of his studied: now invisible visible to radar. Americans declared it "propaganda", but who knows …

2. Another development, which took possession of Iran — the principles of management of unmanned vehicles and missile targeting.

Iran has warned the blogger writes that the top-secret development of remotely controlled aircraft also hacked. In the States, and this statement is not treated arrogantly, not contempt. (Well, we note in brackets, the hegemon has long been used to playing a role). But Iran continues Higgins, already can not only intercept satellite signals, and send their signals to the control system sverhtehnologichny U.S. weapons. And then the worst thing: "When stealth bombers get close to their targets in Iran, the United States will launch missiles" Tomahawk ", waiting for that hundreds of important Iranian facilities would be destroyed in a matter of a minute. Never mind that the incident that when missiles are in the air, Iran will change the coordinates on rockets and send them to quite a different thing. "

3. The subsequent point on which lose America — a reflection of the electrical pulses and rocket fire from the card will erase the U.S. military bases and Israel.

This blogger writes about the absolute conviction the U.S., Israel and Turkey in the reliability of the missile defense system "Iron Dome." But Iran is aware of the fact that its missiles can not overcome the defense, because developed a plan to circumvent not only the anti-missile systems, and power systems and electrical equipment at the location of missile defense. All the matter in electrical devices. There are a series of Iranian missiles, which is armed with an electric pulse warheads, capable of making a destructive blast wave. It was she who will bring down all electrical devices — right at the moment when the missile interceptor missiles will be shot down "dome". Tel Aviv plunged into darkness. The military will have time to realize what happened, but do nothing fail: "… the city will be transformed into a rubble for a minute, if over Tel Aviv will launch again." And they, of course, there will be … And then goes along the lines of Iran "with other Israeli towns, NATO bases in Turkey and dozens of U.S. military bases around Iran …"

Here Higgins seems, went to the scenario of World War III. So far, perhaps, even in Israel, do not go.

4. Mine torpedoes. They will shift down the U.S. Navy, and later Iran will block the Strait of Hormuz.

"Realizing the impossibility to resist the power of naval forces of the United States, the fact that land-missile systems can be attacked from the air, the Iranians izderzhali years to lay the hidden tunnels and underground bases." In other words, the Iranians, according to Higgins, came about as the characters of the novel A. Green's "The Road nowhere."

Tunnels, reports Higgins, were dug to start underwater mines along the foreshore. From there you can produce mines and rockets to create shots, not risking being seen by the enemy.

The missiles will be shot down, "dome" is destroyed, the terms will be darkness, and there is also a South American fleet will undergo a torpedo attack. For U.S. commanders, claims blogger, "will be a surprise, then, from where the missiles are flying." (In vain Higgins gave the Yankees the Iranian secret). Neutralizing the military threat of Iran, on Higgins uses hundreds of sea mines in the Gulf and block the Strait of Hormuz.

5. And then Iran will damage the oil pipelines in Saudi Arabia. Suadovskie storage tanks destroy Iran too.

In this Fri own Iran's Plan A. Higgins predicts the latest price of oil — $ 400 + per barrel. (Analyst forgets to say about the growth of GDP in Russia). But all this stuff, because the important thing is not the cost, while the presence of oil, which, apparently, has the means and will not be available at all … "Shortly after that massive hyperinflation — passionately writes Higgins — shrink on the markets and the dollar will become almost as -that cost at least as countries around the world will start to think that two-thirds of the global supply of oil has just been kicked out of the equation. "

It is up to the opposition and revolutionaries of all stripes and colors. And that is in the world of fuel rapidly devour its own military technology.

6. The plot on the ancient Greek theme: "Trojan horses" of Iranian manufacture.

This picture story quite so mind-boggling. According to the creator, preparing for war, Iran will actively positioning for the whole world "armada" Trojan horses. What is it all the same for these stallions? Not those finicky about which Vysotsky sang. It tankers belonging to a network of some Iranian oil and transport companies. (I do not know how fast you can make a similar worldwide "network of companies." Especially in a system of sanctions against Iran.) Hundreds of oil tankers, says Higgins, will be equipped with explosives and secretly monitored via satellite. When appropriate, these large tankers berthed in the western ports and full of oil will explode, "disabling the main ports that are required for the maintenance of commercial and military supply lines."

Immediately other cargo tankers — another type of Trojan stallions — will begin to imitate the Somali pirates and the attack cargo ships "around the world". A very-very Arma
geddon — here: "Even more naizloveschim is a secret that lies deep beneath the 55-gallon oil drums Iran — explosives and detonators. By the time the war breaks out, bombs barrels full of oil will spread around the world. When Iran 'clicks', 10's of thousands of factories, depots and arsenals around the world will disappear in a cloud of smoke. "

Curiously, someone would kill such makarom Iran? Maybe China? India? In the time of sanction of the purchasers of these same 55-gallon drums significantly reduced. Reduced them and Iran itself — its kontrsanktsiyami.

7. It is clear that without cyber warfare in the script can not do. "Sleepers superbugs will be released to the wild in the apocalyptic cyber attack" — oh so fashionable writes creator. In his view, if the U.S. and Israel have infected computer systems worldwide virus Stuxnet, Iran changed the code and rewrote the virus, so that the aim of the infrastructure the U.S. and other advanced countries. While the virus dormant. But how will the attack on Iran, the modified Stuxnet 2.0 aktiviruetcya and lead into disrepair all U.S. energy system, ie, will send the country into the stone age. And then … Later Iran publishes a number of vulnerabilities in the U.S. cyber security systems that are found in his intelligence for many years, "and within a few hours of a global network of hundreds of thousands of hackers will disable nuclear facilities, the entire system of the U.S. electricity supply, South American satellites and other systems that support the daily life of citizens . "

Perhaps in the world already has hundreds of thousands of hackers that one order are ready to act against the United States. The whole electrical army.

8. Here come into play some "sleeper agents".

Iran will create (or have already done?) In Mexico, "a complex network of arms smuggling." To penetrate the Mexican drug cartels have used "Hezbollah". After the attack on Iran Iranian special agents in Mexico will postpone their little affairs, and will attack along the Mexican border. Cartels with pleasure provide their own fighters, says the blogger, because the unstable situation makes the drug trade. Well cocaine profits grow. Before the fine will beat fighters from the drug cartels and the agents that "the destruction of a number of targets on the border will lead the whole area under the control of the drug cartels and Iranian agents" Hezbollah ". In short, the entire territory of the border between Mexico and the United States "will turn into an uncontrollable war zone." Oh, so far extends the avenging hand of Iran.

9. Muslim vector.

It has long been dissatisfied with U.S. Muslims and extremists in their midst, "sympathetic to Iran, Palestine and other Islamic countries that have been targeted by the United States in the war on terror" will attack the main objects of America's civilian infrastructure: railways, stations, bridges, "overrun by people places" etc. Well, not only in America will start an orgy of attacks, and in the allied countries of the world hegemon, including NATO.

10. This blogger is reasonable crosses to the scenario of World War III, "… activated smelled blood in China, Our homeland and India …" In addition, inside the United States will rise up "hundreds of thousands of Chinese and Russian sleeper agents." And after the awakening of the Chinese smart agents "will activate the switch-disconnectors, which they built into all South American civilian and military computers and electrical appliances, and the U.S. Army quickly realizes" what Made in USA.

Our homeland will take the example of Iran and launch missiles at the pulse of NATO anti-missile system, rendering it useless. Then Russia will deploy its army and air force to attack Eastern Europe and Afghanistan. Immediately she will join China in its campaign of cyber attacks and the destruction of U.S. satellites. And then for some reason hackers use again changed — is the Chinese — Stuxnet (version 3.0) in order to undermine the worldwide nuclear missiles (by self-detonation).

Virus version 3.0, of course, a serious thing, but what the Chinese hackers hold the end of the world? ..

II. Who is worse: Iran or Israel?

Walter Pincus of the "Washington Post", referring to the case of a noble Paul Pillar, says on the topic of how it would be unsafe Iran, A nuclear weapon. Pincus, and, more precisely, Pillar, comes to the conclusion that not more dangerous than present day Iran, as the present-day Iran will not fool rule. Let's see what kind of results confirm the Pillar in favor of its own geopolitical theory of peaceful Iran.

Paul Pillar — this is the last senior analyst at the CIA and the State Intelligence Service officer in the Middle East and South Asia from 2000 to 2005., Retired. Currently Pillar lecturer at the Institute of Georgetown. Previously, he was involved in the events, when the CIA had doubts about the weapons of mass destruction, Saddam Hussein, the Bush administration ignored.

In one of the hotel's room magazine «Washington Monthly» Pillar spoke to the Iranian theme: "Iran with a nuclear bomb would not be so insecure as to feel the moment, but the war in order to try to prevent him to get that bomb will be less successful and more more expensive than many to represent himself. "

Adopted outlook, says Pillar, is that Tehran's favorites, getting a nuclear weapon, will become unsafe for the neighbors and the United States. Managers of Iran, many unfairly referred to as "religious fanatics who value martyrdom more than life", as if they "act irrationally, and therefore impossible to restrain them." Pillar argument: "… the last 30 years have shown that although they encourage martyrdom to defend their own country, but" never were reluctant to become these sufferers themselves. "

Iran does not have favorites preconditions, says Pillar, lose all control over the nuclear weapon. Iran will use nuclear weapons only for self-defense.

Pillar is given and why any Israeli or U.S. attack on Iran — to end its nuclear programs from — consider the "best option" scenario, but the "worst case scenario" — is necessarily the one where Iran gets the bomb. Whether armed attack Israel or the United States analyzed in view of the "worst case" scenario, Pillar wrote, "we would have heard about the stunning regional conflict, involving numerous U.S. allies, after the first stroke pulls the big forces of the United States."

By the way, Pillar, even if Iran gets a nuclear weapon, "Israel will retain an overwhelming military an advantage with its nuclear arsenal, in which by international estimates, there are very few 100, and, maybe, and 200 warheads."

So Makar, Pillar gently alluding to the fact that nuclear Israel and the United States nuclear, bright writing out "worst case scenario", forgets that the perpetrators of an entirely different worst-case scenario can be themselves.

And not to say that some of the consequences of the looming "worst case scenario" (for now — economic) now do not feel for themselves on the Israelis.

III. Tons of ink against gallons of gasoline

Eyal Horowitz in the Israeli edition of «Maariv» writes"Tons of ink have been spent on the creation of analytical predictions and apocalyptic scenarios involving Iran's nuclear discrepancy. Numerous commentators and experts are trying to predict the situation in which Ahmadinejad will give the order to bombard Israel. But
no one so far has not provided that the Iranian threat — it's not a question of the future, and what is happening to us now. "

The phrase "the Iranian threat" here is an ironic sense.

The creator sees this "threat" in the prices of petrol stations. "And the more will increase the pressure on Iran, the greater will become the fuel price — says Eyal Horowitz. — But this is only the beginning. Imagine a situation in which Iran is absolutely stops the supply of oil to all countries of the world or deliver this product only in the Arab countries. "

The subsequent step in the development of negative events — the withdrawal of investors from the market in Israel. Is not it enough that: it can start a war … Transactions are canceled, the investors shall be removed from previous plans … "Iranian crisis — says creator — seems to me even more complicated than it seems at first glance. On the one hand, the methods of pressure on Iran seem to be an urgent need in order to prevent future development of Tehran's nuclear project. On the other hand, the implementation of these methods carries within itself a danger, which may be much greater than the Iranian atom. "

Conclusion: yes, Israel should decide efforts to prevent the creation of the Tehran nuclear weapons, but he does not have to behave in the manner of a hysterical woman. Tantrum may cost the country dearly. Under the "expensive" creator has in mind is not an Iranian nuclear bomb dropped on Israel, and the economic catastrophe caused by the lack or overhead energoelementov.

And rightly so. No wonder Iran successfully applies the oil kontrsanktsii, created a sensation and even lifted a mild panic in the European Union.

In addition, the U.S. has repeatedly read as Israel is not ready to wage war with Iran, and Israel alone, even with bunker busters, but without allies, poruha on Iran would never dare.

America is criticizing Iran and applying "sanctions", in fact cooperating with Iran. This is not a joke, and I hope not "duck" — in other words, not propaganda.

Reza Sajjadi, salting Iran in Russia, on the days of wrote in his blog:

"My dear friends,

You understand that American exports to Iran in comparison with 2010 to 2011 increased by 10%?

And that's the criteria, when America declared as though imposes sanctions on any country or company that cooperates with Iran! In 2011, in the article «New York Times» reported that America is naikrupneyshim violator sanctions against Iran.

During the attack, Saddam Hussein Iran was under the influence of Western sanctions on arms. In 1986, America sent to Iran McFarlane on a plane full of guns. Later this became a political scandal known as "Irangate" (like "Watergate" Nixon).

Similar behavior of America means that some fundamental markets should be instituted for America — and only for one. And it is America's right to work on all the criteria, and the other is not permissible. And so I'd be surprised if someone tells me that the story of the Iranian air defense system "Patriot" — installed and ready to go! "

"Patriot" is not "The Patriot," and surprised that in Iran there was a South American drone-invisible (does not matter, as there was), just do not. With regard to requests Washington to Tel Aviv about the postponement of war with Tehran, everything is simple: America in crisis have started to think that the trade — more profitable than wage war and to impose sanctions. Soon it usvoyut and tortured economic neuvvyazkami EU.

Oleg surveyed Chuvakin
— Especially for

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