The possibility of a military conflict against Iran has become trivial for all members of the IAEA report. The report said the imminent development of a nuclear bomb in Iran recently.
We do not consider who is right — Iran or the United States, we already consider the current situation, which is able to resolve the military conflict. Will be involved in the conflict, perhaps, the greatest number of states for all the recent military conflicts. This conflict can cause a chain reaction of military conflicts in the region. But the most terrible consequences may appear in the global economy.
Already at this time the global economy is barely moving forward, though what a shock can negate all the efforts to improve the global economy.
Already at this time audible warnings of politicians and economists from around the world about the consequences of languid military intervention in Iran.
And that's not counting a possible nuclear whole region of infection.
Our homeland and its allies
Great opportunity for a new war, which will be organized by Israel with the full support of the United States, will also affect the of — it may lose its base in Armenia, which will reduce the impact of the entire region.
1st safeguards Russian government has already accepted. From the military base evacuated civilian staff and military families, improved the number of Russian troops in Armenia, reduced some units, and some spanned close to the Armenian-Turkish border. Just off the Turkish countryside country may be, will be struck from the military bases of the United States.
Since early December, Russian military bases in Abkhazia and South Ossetia put on alert. The Black Sea Fleet has been commanded to put to sea and is close to Georgia's territorial waters, because there is the possibility of accession of Georgia to Israel and the United States in the conflict against Iran.
In Dagestan, on the border with Azerbaijan stood at full readiness OBRD holding anti-ship missile complex "Bal-E" with the introduction of a range of 130 km.
All ships operating in the Caspian Sea, are collected in a single group near the Caspian and Makhachkala.
One can imagine that nedavneshny access to the Mediterranean Sea Russian Navy carrier battle group is also associated with the situation in the region. The grouping will go to the port of Tartus, located on the territory of Syria. There is support available for part of the Russian fleet.
According carried out in the near future external policy of the Russian Federation can imagine that our homeland Iran, in case of military conflict, at least will have the military-technical assistance. And the introduction of Russian naval forces and ground troops in the alleged conflict area while only guesses.
But even if the likelihood of military conflict, Our homeland in economic terms, if not win, you will lose less precisely the other parties to the conflict.
Yes, there is an outflow of capital, falling stocks and the ruble — is inevitably. But the price of energoelementy of military conflict will only increase, and our homeland — one of the major players in the market energoelementov.
How to solve the economic problems abroad, perfectly clear — include the printing press. And the consequences of this include all perfectly known. So the acquisition of a military conflict with Iran, NATO states could nullify the loss of him then.
Option that suits Russia and a lot of other states — the so-called "no war, no peace." Because our home and doing its best to tighten the solution of this problem as soon as possible on a little longer, and before you know it, and be no war.
But all the problem at the moment is that the Russian Federation has virtually no leverage and ability on the world stage.
NATO countries and their allies
Prior to the publication of the report of the United Kingdom have reported that he would support the United States in the event of their preventive measures against Iran. Israel is also inclined to support military operations.
Following the publication of the report began to appear the date of the military operation against Iran. Here is one of them — on December 25. She appeared in the media disk imaging England.
This year, Georgia has been a transit contract, now military supplies from Russia to Armenia via Georgia to deliver the impossible. At the moment, various fuel supply comes from Iran. Military conflict Iran will lead to the fact that the supply of fuel to the military base in Armenia will be terminated and will create enormous difficulties the Russian military command.
It may be that the development of a military conflict, even if Georgia does not act on the side of NATO, Russia will still have to dig through the transport blockade of Georgia, and it will lead to military conflict Russia-Georgia.
The black horse.
Azerbaijan increases military potential, and the military conflict in the region is still a black horse. Some experts believe that Baku has not got involved in the conflict. Others believe that there is a great opportunity to resolve an old conflict Baku and Yerevan method of entry into the conflict against Iran, which would eventually lead to the statement on the side of Baku its allies — Israel, the United States and Turkey.
Apart from the above countries still have geopolitical neighbors — Iraq and Turkey.
The position of these countries well known to Iran, and it was not funny. The fact is that they are neighbors. And the neighbors are virtually everywhere and always at least jealous of each other, that does not make them some good friends.
Turkey has long been a member of NATO. Constantly pursuing a policy of the United States in the region. In case of conflict, particularly with its military bases and NATO missile defense system will be applied against Iran.
Iraq and Iran davneshnie competitors. Still warm in the memory of the bloody war between them in the late 70s. That the territorial issue, because then the war broke out which, to this day remains unresolved. Tension between the countries has never subsided.
Also in Iraq are almost going conflict between Sunnis and Shiites. Iran supports the Shiites in the conflict, because they are the majority inhabitants of Iranian co-religionists. Of course, how could that Iran supports them and provides various assistance. Supplies & Tools Iraqi Shiites. It can not have a positive effect on their relationship. In addition, the supplied tools suffer and peacekeeping troops (read — a contingent of the United States), which leads the U.S. in another huge degree of irritation. Officially, the U.S. can not do anything.
In general, the Pentagon has already sees the possible problems with the use of force to resolve the situation in Iran and urges to use economics and diplomacy in the Iranian case.
Our homeland opposed both methods of conflict resolution — military and economic, and believes that this is only a pretext for regime change Iran.
Expected conflict affect the 10s states of the Arabian Peninsula to the Caucasus and the 10's of the rest of the world.