Iran is bluffing, but America is not (The Financial Times, England)

For 10 days Iran relentlessly provoking America. The Iranian military has recently threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, and Tehran on Tuesday warned the U.S. that South American carriers should not vorachivatsya in the Persian Gulf. But Iran bluffing: unlikely in the foreseeable future it is going to make war with the United States or Israel.

With all this, he really angry, and his anger in recent months, is constantly growing. The last (and most severe) a prerequisite for it was signed Dec. 31 by President Barack Obama sanctions laws, because of which Iran will become more difficult and less profitable to sell oil. This measure, dealing a blow to the Iranian economy mainly oil revenues, of course, infuriated Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his entourage, and urged them to react in a predictable manner — attacks on Western markets and diplomats.

But for all that Iran does not want to wage war. Military conflict in the Strait of Hormuz would prevent himself to export oil. Samples close the Strait of stupid because the U.S. Navy can unlock it for a few weeks. With all this war, If it spreads, it may lead to a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities precious applets. We Ayatollah Khamenei and without this rather problems with the fall of the Iranian currency, and with the struggle inside the elite. The main objective of Tehran — scare the United States and its allies, that they should not impose sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Thus, in spite of all the militant rhetoric mode, it appears to some features, wishing to return to the negotiations, which implies a dual policy.

In addition, for the war Iran opponent is needed, but neither the U.S. nor Israel is currently not interested in war. Israel pleased with the new oil sanctions. Attack on Iran would be linked to severe neuvvyazkami — Israel able to put the Iranian nuclear program there only limited damage, and retaliation by Tehran can be fierce. In turn, the U.S. against attack on Iran are the high-ranking military and the population is not obvious lust latest war. Vpribavok, the conflict in the Persian Gulf would lead to skyrocketing oil prices, which could potentially drive the global economy into a full blown recession.

In general, it is obvious to the conflict can lead to an error in the calculation of at least some of the parties, because the Navy and other military equipment the United States and Iran at the moment are in unsafe proximity. In the longer term, the conflict could be a prerequisite progress of Iran's nuclear programs from, namely a rapid installation of centrifuges Iran — especially if the new equipment will be used for the creation of the bomb.

But today's games in the Persian Gulf, many analysts understand correctly. Iran bluffing and provokes, but neither the U.S. nor Israel is not going to swallow the bait.

Ian Bremmer — President of the consulting firm Eurasia Group, specializing in political risk, Cliff Kupchan — one of the Directors of the Eurasia Group.

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