Iran: obmyslenny bluff or empty shapkozakidatelstvo?

Iran continues to systematically "disable" Europe from its own oil supply. On the first days of Iran's oil revenues have not found the Greeks, and then Iranian Anger has spread also to Spain. Iranian leaders claim that the subsequent European states who finish receive hydrocarbons from the Islamic Republic, Italy and Germany will be. Tehran has previously neglected the supply of oil to France and British Islands.

So Makar, Iran "ahead" of those sanctions, which against him was going to actually enter the European Alliance this summer. Recall that the sanctions were aimed at making force Iran to abandon its nuclear programs from to what some of the world behold the danger to their security. But Iran is determined to show that this type of sanction in any way be affected by the decision of the Iranian authorities to continue research in the field of nuclear energy. This situation is also confirmed by the fact that Iran's President Ahmadinejad in one of his own speeches nedavneshnih said the country can expect to live two or three years, fully wealthy, even if the general would not do business with oil. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is convinced that Iran of accumulated foreign exchange reserves will be enough to overcome at least some pressure from the outside.

Try to figure out whether indeed words of the Iranian president are true, or Ahmadinejad a cunning and with the termination of oil supplies to Europe is bluffing, hoping that the Europeans prosyadut first.

To do this, touch on a few things. In 1-x, the quantity of oil supplied Iran to start its own hydrocarbon demarche to the European Union. In-2, which now consists of the Iranian financial system as a whole. B-3, is whether Iran potentials for a long amount of time to delay the situation on the applicable Statement positions.

We will pursue. So, according to both the Iranian statistical organizations and according to OPEC, as the EU, to nedavneshnego time Iranian exports to the EU amounted to about 20%. Translating these percentages in currency units, it is necessary to say that it is about 14.5 billion. dollars a year. With all of this remaining fraction of Iranian crude oil sales in the global market of more than 57 billion. bucks. Iran's total annual GDP, according to various estimates, from 920 to 950 billion. bucks. It turns out that the income from oil exports to Europe is less than 1.4%. Certainly, no such figure is slight, and to call it strategic concept for the Iranian economy, too, can be a stretch.

In fact Iran is nothing stopping to make a very luxurious move and sell oil the same method to other Europeans. To do this entirely possible, for example, Turkmenistan, which kept fairly neutral policy towards Iran and "nuclear" does not suffer from hysteria. Next Iranian oil under the guise of Turkmenistan may be through their own channels, or in Russia, or head straight to the West. Of course, to justify the fact that the re-sale of Iranian oil will be very difficult or impossible in general.

Maybe that's why Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did not wait for the beginning of the acts of the European sanctions, and blocked the gate with his own hand first. Indirectly, such fact may be a prerequisite to the fact that Iran is a promising option associated with the supply of unsold oil directly to Europeans in other countries that can completely dispose of it at their own discretion: the willingness and ability — it is the same for Europeans and "merge".

In this regard, there is quite a fascinating picture: Iran reduces the supply of oil to Europe, and oil with all this, not only does not grow in value, and also cheaper, as we can observe in the near future, although no one in the world, as it were, is not going to reduce the total volume of its purchases. Words — the words and the need for oil supply for the needs of production as yet has not been canceled. It turns out that Ahmadinejad had time to find a buyer applicable to the oil that ended up directly supply to the EU. A word about the fact that Iran can live without any hydrocarbon exports can only be fully cover for the new shopping destinations that cultivates Iran.

If so, then the European sanctions, indeed, will look for Tehran's just funny. The world is now time to undergo a large-scale globalization, because entanglement of trade flows can be used more efficiently than it seems to European bureaucrats.

Another question is, "pull" if the same Turkmenistan same 14.5-billion-dollar purchase of Iranian raw materials, so that later put it at their own discretion. If we talk about direct payments, then, of course not. But China can really allow yourself to "buy more" Iranian oil to fill their strategic storage. For modern China 14500000000. dollars a year — the amount is purely symbolic. Our homeland, by the way, too, can "learn" a certain percentage of "free" of Iranian oil, is laid out for the right amount. Naturally and China, and our homeland will seek (or already have gained) from the Iranian crude oil purchases at discounted prices, but now such conditions Tehran may well come up. By the way, not so long ago, the purchase of Iranian oil dealt with at a meeting of representatives of the authorities of Iran and China, where Beijing has given to understand that he wants to continue to cooperate with Iran on the criteria of certain discounts for black gold. Consider it a kind of blackmail China, of course, possible, but Iran is better to lose a couple of hundred million dollars a year to "discount" for China than all 14500000000. on a real overlap tap into Europe.
In this situation, the Iranian economy is certainly not enough that threatens …

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