March 14, U.S. President Barack Obama said that the settlement of the nuclear power window prepyadstviya Iranian diplomatic means locked. This is a stern warning to Iranian control. As highlighted South American favorite, the Iranian leaders must realize that the international community is actually in store ran out of the political and diplomatic means, designed to convince Tehran to fully justify the only focus of plainclothes own nuclear applets. "They / officials in Tehran / should be aware that, as a world society, we apply as a huge amount of sanctions is not used so little of the available measures to assure Iran to change course, the window for diplomatic solution to this issue by decreases in size" — said President Obama. He expressed confidence that the dialogue with the five unchanged UN Security Council and Germany gives the best chance of resolving the Iranian nuclear prepyadstviya peaceful manner. (1)
In April, after the Iranian New Year Happy holiday (March 21 in Iran celebrate Nouruz — the coming of the new 1391), is scheduled resumption of talks in the format of "six" of international mediators (Russia, USA, China, Britain, France plus Germany) with Iran on the Iranian nuclear program there . West calls the talks last chance for Iran. It is necessary to realize such a way that if the negotiations are unsuccessful, the war is inevitable. What Barack Obama and hinted. Now, when discussing the war, then they say not a word of "if" but "when." When? In all likelihood, in December, after the U.S. presidential election. Although many insist on more of early deadlines: late spring — early summer of this year.
How can a similar catastrophic for the region's peace and development? Indeed, both in Washington and in Jerusalem shall be removed from this way of solving the nuclear problems of Iran. Moreover, the U.S. military and Israel jointly and conduct exercises and training, practicing different options for fighting against Iran. In this case, apparently, a ground military operation "Iraqi scenario" is not considered (at least in the foreseeable future) because of its utopian temper due to the nature of international and regional situation and the criterion of Iran. Usually, the discussions are missile and air strikes. And then the order of the day or there are three scenarios: One-time blow to one or several major nuclear facilities. Limited-time (2-5 days) and scale-missile air strikes at nuclear facilities critical infrastructure, missile launchers, air defense, airfields, naval bases, mainly due Fri. Multi-day large-scale aircraft missile operation for applying massive missile and bomb strikes in order to complete destruction of nuclear facilities, and much of the military infrastructure of Iran ("Yugoslav scenario"). (2)
Another issue that is being discussed in the media — whether Iran would be able to protect themselves from attacks from the air? Air Shield of Iran are the Air Force and Air Defense. The Iranian Air Force has 300 combat aircraft (130 fighters and 170 fighter-bombers and attack aircraft) and 200 helicopters. The bulk of the Iranian air force equipment — machines left over from the Shah's time and past upgrades. Fighters: South American F-14, F-5, the Iranian "remakes" and development — Saegheh and Azarakhsh; also Russian MiG-29 and Chinese F-7M (analogue Russian MiG-21), bombers and attack aircraft: F-4 "Phantom" , F-5, the Su-24. Several 10-s transport aircraft: C-130, IL-76, AN-24, AN-72, AN-140. Several patrol naval aircraft P-3MP/P-3F Orion South American production. About 10 tanker refueling Boeing 707 and 747.
During the anti-Saddam operation "Desert Storm" 10's Iraqi aircraft flown to Iran. The implication is that Iraq has flown aircraft were cannibalized for spare parts. More significant potential Iraqi "contribution" to the Iranian Air Force: Up to 24 "Mirage» F-1EQ, MiGs and also some "Dying." But the actual number of aircraft has flown and the technical condition of the currently unclear. (3)
Iran also has military attack helicopters "Cobra" development dollars. They have been greatly upgraded and manufactured by Iranian factories. Also, the Iranian Air Force have transport helicopters Russian production.
But the real protection of the air space of Iran may be only 35 MiG-29 fighters and 44 F-14 "Tomcat". (4) But it is difficult to say how many of them are able to take to the air. Other types of fighters ("Mirages» F-1EQ, F-5 fighter in the clean version, F-7M) is very out of date, that have a strong resistance to the attacking enemy air filled with the latest technology. Iranian strike aircraft rather numerous 30 frontline bombers Su-24MK, 65 multi-role fighter aircraft — F-4 "Phantom — II», 60 fighter-bombers, F-5. All these aircraft models have already proven themselves in service and during the armed conflict, but upon reflection air attack Iran does not fail to assist. (5)
For all this, the South American experts believe that 40 to 60 percent of its fleet of Iran does not combat-ready. Aircraft that can fly at the views of aviation specialists, can not compete with the modern F-15 and F/A-18, not to mention the fighters of the fifth generation F-22 Raptor.
Iranian Air Force has a relatively good ground infrastructure. The headquarters of Iran Air Force base located on Dusan Tepe, in the districts of Tehran. The main service-technical center — base Mehrabad, she — the largest civilian airport. Other great base — in the towns of Tabriz, Bandar Abbas, Hamadan, Dizful, Shiraz and Bushehr. In the interests of the military can be used for more than 30 civilian and commercial airports and runways. Air Force are divided into three sectors responsible for the command: Western, Southern and Eastern. (6)
Ground-based air defense forces are also subject to the commander of the Iranian Air Force. Iran has 10 launchers of Russian anti-aircraft missile system (SAM) long-range S-200, bought in 90 years in the CIS (Development 1964, in service with the Russian Army — in 1967). Apart from these facilities, Iran has 150 launchers for medium-range air defense missile systems Improved Hawk (modernized "Hawk"), which has mastered the creation of missiles and spare parts. These updated "Hokie" were Iranian modernization and received the title of "Shahin". In September 2011, it was reported on the adoption of a new Iranian Air Force air defense system "Mersadie" Iran's development of missile "Shahin", capable of hitting aerial targets at ranges of 70 to 150 km, but the number of these SAMs is not known.
In 2010, Iran began to create a batch of missiles "Shalamche." Tehran says that the latest upgrade "Hawk-3" is allowed to increment the range rocket launch up to 150-200 km, and flight speed now is 3500 km / h
In service with the Iranian air defense forces is also 45 launchers SAM HQ-2J (Chinese version of the Russian S-75. SAM This was adopted by the USSR in 1957), is also a small number of Russian air defense system "Square" — export version of SAM "Cube" (Development 1958, adopted in the Soviet Union — in 1967). Short-range air defense missile systems FM-80 (the Chinese version of the French air defense system "Crotal" — development of early 60's, taking in service in the French army in 1971).
In the Iranian air defense system more modern and efficient, respectively, short-range air d
efense system (5 to 20 km) Russian "Tor-M1". 29 systems were supplied by Moscow to Tehran in 2006. The website WikiLeaks published in February remarkable materials. In accordance with them, Israel transferred the RF data UAV put Georgia, and in return received from the Russian side of the same embedded codes for the set of air defense systems to Iran "Tor M-1." (7)
In addition, according to some unconfirmed reports, Iran has also from 2 to 4 (according to various sources (8)) anti-aircraft missile systems S-300 modifications of early, finding in Belarus or Croatia. As you know, the acquisition of S-300 in the Russian Federation in connection with a foiled UN resolution number 1929 and the Decree of the President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev. Also in February 2010, Iran announced it was developing its own analog of the C-300, surpassing last on features. (9)
In addition to the defense of Iran has 10 mobile missile and gun systems "Armour" C-1, a huge amount of Russian portable air defense system "Arrow" and "Eagle"; outdated "legacy" Shah's time — the British air defense system "Rapier" (Development — 60 -s, adopted in 1971), 15 British mobile units "Taygerket" (SAM "Taygerket" — ground modification naval anti-aircraft missiles "Siket" develop the 60s). It is capable of hitting targets at ultra low and is equipped with different guidance systems. In addition, at the defense forces — about 1,700 barrels of flak Russian, Swiss and Iranian production. (10)
In general, based on the number of weapons and Iran's air defenses can come to the conclusion that it can solve the problems of limited range of defense, first, covering a small number of more fundamental objects. (11)
South American political scientist and expert on Iran's military dilemmas Anthony Kordsmen skeptical considering the state of the Iranian air defenses. He said: "The air defense system (as well as the Air Force) is also far from perfect: the only modern anti-aircraft missile system — a" Tor-M1 "Russian production. Although Iran … tried to upgrade the installation of air defense and tie them into a modern air defense system, but the system remains highly vulnerable to the action of electronic warfare (EW), and anti-radar missiles … The air defense system is also vulnerable to attack aircraft — "stealth" cruise missiles, rockets "air-to-ground." Tehran exactly needs bolshennom amount of air defense systems S-300, capable of intercepting ballistic targets, in radar and control systems for the integration of its own facilities in effective defense system. Our home in the middle of 2010 to implement such a system refused. " (12)
But with Mr. Kordsmenom disagree Russian military Candidate of Military Sciences expert Yuri Cooper. In his own interview with the creator of the article he said that, in any case, an easy walk "on air" in the U.S. and / or Israel will not work.
"Yes, the air defense system obsolete. But on arms adopting new standards. The Iranians were sitting not long, warehouses hands. Their currently very well-developed robotics, unmanned aerial vehicles. At the same time, and tactical, and operational and operational-strategic scale. They developed (but most likely copied) our Russian system of "swing" anti-radar missiles. In other words, they are now able to protect their radars. Let this be the day yesterday, but it works.
Second time. The mountainous terrain allows the Iranians to use tactical air defense systems, such as the "TOR-M1", as a system of "Square" ("Cube"), as well as "Taygerket" as the operational and strategic resources. In other words, they are posted in the mountains, can be a threat to the strategic enemy aircraft — American strategic bombers and reconnaissance aircraft.
Iran's air defense system is almost on the verge of date. And if we put the one-time adversaries, surgical strikes against Iranian, including nuclear, sites, they, the Yankees will have to come to terms with the loss bolshennymi "- concludes J. Cooper.
Certainly, Iran's armed forces, more precisely — the Air Force and Air Defense, designed to ensure the security of the country from the air, not pale in comparison with groups of U.S. and its allies. Thus, the United States at the beginning of March 2012 was placed in the region with 2 aircraft carrier strike groups (CSGs), led by the aircraft carrier "Abraham Lincoln" and "Carl Vinson". Both ships belong to the subclass of aircraft carrier "Nimitz" — is the largest and more armed warships in the world. On board each aircraft carriers are more than 5 thousand people, including flight and flight-technical staff, and over 80 aircraft. In addition, a typical carrier battle groups apart from the aircraft carrier itself also includes two cruisers, frigates, three — four destroyers, two nuclear submarines, several support ships. In AUG also include three ship amphibious expeditionary forces battalion of marines on board (2,200 Marines). Most of the warships escort Resettled air defense system "Aegis". They can carry cruise missiles "Tomahawk" range which is about 1,500 km, and accuracy — up to 6 meters.
In January, the U.S. announced in March that could be exported to the coast of Iran, the third AUG. It will include nuclear aircraft carrier "Enterprise", a missile cruiser and three missile destroyers (13).
January first England sent to the Persian Gulf, where there is a British frigate "Argyll" the most modern and most powerful destroyer "Daring". British Defense Minister Philip Hammond said that the United Kingdom is ready to bring in the Gulf region for more Navy ships in the event that the region will see an increase in tension. (14)
In addition, the U.S. military bases in the region is constantly deployed significant forces and resources. For example, in Saudi Arabia — nine thousand U.S. troops, an air base, "Al-Kharj," "Prince Sultan". In Qatar — eight thousand U.S. troops, an air base, "Al-Udeid," "Ac-Salia," forward command post CENTCOM (Central Command), which is the overall management of forces and means of U.S. forces in the region. In Kuwait — 140 thousand U.S. soldiers and 12 thousand British, the air base, "Al-Jaber," "Ali Salem." In Bahrain — 5 thousand U.S. troops, the headquarters of the 5th U.S. fleet. In Oman — 3 thousand U.S. military. In Turkey — 5 thousand U.S. troops and England AFB "Incirlik". In Jordan — three thousand U.S. troops, an air base, "Mafraq", "Azraq", "Safaui", "Ruyshed." At the airbase on the peninsula Diego Garcia (Indian Ocean) are located U.S. strategic bombers B-2 and B-52. (15) In this case, the U.S. Strategic Air can act as a forward bases, and with the right air bases on the territory of the United States. Naturally, unsuppressed enemy air defense strategic bombers to throw no one would, but use them with unobtrusive precision strategic cruise missiles such as the AGM-129ACM, without entering the zone of enemy air defenses, can be fully. The chances of Iran's air-defense missiles to intercept data are small. (16)
We should not forget the most experienced pilots and modern military vehicles the Israeli Air Force. So, they make up the backbone of the 58 fighters gain advantages air F-15 "Eagle", 25 strike fighter F-15E «Strike Eagle", 323 multirole fighter F-16 "Fighting Falcon".
More "distant" are the F-16 with the greatest acts of 1565 km radius without refueling. Because the only way for Israeli aircraft "reach" to Iran's nuclear facilities is air refueling. But one thing — do it with the actions of a small group of comparable aircraft, and another — to produce a continuous
mass raids for, at least, a couple of days. Israeli Air Force has a total of 9 air refueling tankers that apparently is not enough for a big operation against Iran. (17)
No hesitation that aviaraketny fist United States and its allies will strike Iran's air defense and carry out its puzzle to destroy the military infrastructure of the country. True, some professionals have doubts that the operation aviaraketnaya the U.S., Israel and their allies against Iran will not be associated with considerable difficulties. "Persian Gulf will inevitably become a death trap for American ships dared to enter. Military exercises Millenium Challenge — 2002, conducted by the Pentagon showed that the 5th U.S. Fleet, he start a war with Iran in the Persian Gulf would be absolutely crushed during the day a massive launch anti-ship missiles from the shore, and then finished off "mosquito fleet" — missile boats, owning a big punching power at malehankih sizes. "(18) That's so mean that U.S. aircraft carriers groups to act against Iran, while at significant distance from its borders, which, of course, reduce the effectiveness of strikes. However, this factor can be decisive only in limited air strikes. When large-scale operation, for making use of strategic (but, of course, not nuclear) powers the United States, it can be minimized. But this is a large-scale war.
This suggests the main question: will decide whether all these air strikes on the main problem of Iran — nuclear? It is not clear.
A one-time hit or limited in time and scope missile air strikes on critical nuclear sites and military infrastructure in the best case able to year — Two, even three — four fold embodiment of Tehran's nuclear program, but did not stop them. But the explosion of indignation from all the world, at first, to the "Muslim Street" the best way to change the attitude to Iran, even in the States — his opponents, and would anger the address in the United States and Israel, which is obviously not in their best interest. Naturally, multi-day large-scale aviation and missile operation can solve "Iranian question. " March 1 it was reported that the commander of the U.S. Air Force Norton Schwartz said at the days of his subordinates have developed a plan of military action against Iran. (19) In this case, the South American military are considering a very languid non-nuclear weapon — the latest bomb weighing 13.5 tons, capable of destroying underground nuclear facilities opponent with a width of up to 65 meters of concrete. (20) including a planned strike at bases of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), the objects of the Ministry of Defence, also the headquarters of the Iranian secret services. In addition, the U.S. Air Force plans to provide its refueling tankers for Israeli fighter jets aimed at the destruction of Iran's nuclear infrastructure — if the need arises.
But this is a big war, which, without a doubt, would undermine the entire region. And the consequences of regional military conflicts arising from attempts to resolve the Iranian nuclear problem will be tragic:
? Will be greatly devastated oil infrastructure in the region. Sharp rise in oil prices.
? Maybe it will shut the Strait of Hormuz.
? Intensify subversive, subversive activities of Iranian agents in the region and around the world.
? Maybe break out brand new Israeli-Palestinian war.
? In the countries of the region, first, the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf will experience social and political tensions, including on religious grounds (Sunni vs. Shia).
? There will be new refugees, first from Iran — to the north, and then — through the Caucasus on the territory of Russia.
? Possible rise of Islamic radicalism and terrorism, not only in the region and the world at large, including Russia.
? Likely to yield some of the region of the Contract on the Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons.
? Activated work on nuclear programs when the so-called "threshold" countries.
? Without a doubt, Iran's nuclear programm recovered after the attacks (in the case will not be overthrown by the clerical regime today) will be the first war, with the intended purpose of creation is true of nuclear weapons
? Non-proliferation regime will be irreversibly undermined.
At first glance, segodnyaschy situation in Iran is fraught with inevitable war with tragic consequences. Basically make war no one wants. But, as it was before World War provocation (not fundamentally planned or accidental) can lead to an explosion. But Tehran is able to specifically prevent this explosion, reduce the intensity of tension and prevent the implementation of the most pessimistic forecasts about the beginning of the war in the spring, summer, winter, and so on. So now the ball on the Iranian side of the field.
Indeed, based on the realities of present day or, we can say that the new 1391 year, promises of the Islamic Republic of immense joy, either economic plus social crisis (as a result of large-scale sanctions), or war, or all together. But the candidate so damn events and for Iran and for the Near East, and the world is. This is absolutely dependent on the success of the upcoming talks in Tehran "Six" — Iran. And, of course, the ratification of the new composition of the Iranian parliament — the Majlis of the Additional Protocol to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons (NPT).
In late 2003, Iran agreed to sign the protocol, but this document has not been ratified by the Iranian Majlis. According to the Additional Protocol should be provided with free and immediate access for IAEA inspectors to the places which they consider necessary to visit. It seems that, until such time as Tehran will ignore this document, disputes and tensions between Iran and the IAEA, and accordingly all opponents of Iran's nuclear programs from not finished.
Ratification of the Protocol, in truth, would be evidence of the sincerity of Tehran, marking the end of the confrontation and the beginning of a positive step in the arduous journey to resolve the Iranian nuclear problem. So do not still be lost in a brand new 1391. It all depends, first, on Iran.
1.http :/ / www.itar-tass.com/c1/366343.html
2. For details, see "Power solution to the Iranian nuclear problem: the script and the consequences." — Edited by Vladimir Dvorkin and Alexei Arbatov. — Luxembourg Forum on Preventing Nuclear Catastrophe. — Moscow 2008
4.http :/ / topwar.ru/8713-izrail-i-iran-cifry-vozmozhnoy-voyny.html
6.http :/ / www.globalsecurity.org / military / world / iran / airforce.htm
7.http :/ / www.rosbalt.ru/main/2012/02/29/951445.html
8.http :/ / www.military-informer.narod.ru/iran.html; http://www.modernarmy.ru/new/47)
9.http:/ / Www.modernarmy.ru/new/47
10.http:/ / En.wikipedia.org / wiki / Islamic_Republic_of_Iran_Air_Defense_Force
12.http :/ / armtoday.info / default.asp? Lang = _Ru & NewsID = 61432
13.http :/ / ria.ru/world/20120126/549353874.html
15.Silovoe solution to the Iranian nuclear problem: the script and the consequences. — Edited by Vladimir Dvorkin and Alexei Arbatov. — Luxembourg Forum on Preventing Nuclear Catastrophe. — M. 2008., Page 9-10
16.http :/ / www.modernarmy.ru/new/47
17.http :/ / www.modernarmy.ru/new/47
18.http :/ / www.modernarmy.ru/new/47
20.http :/ / www.gazeta.ru/news/lenta/2012/03/09/n_2234657.shtml