I. Chop off the branch on which sit
From the film "Lethal Weapon"
Against the backdrop of Western sanctions against Iran last entered suddenly and unpredictably: self imposed sanctions against the West. To start Tehran had halted oil supplies to Britain and France — the countries that Tehran believes the main allies of the United States. At this point in the next stage of "switching off".
And you can not say that such stringent countermeasures to no avail.
As pointed out not so long ago, the Iranian channel "Press TV", in the EU have been rescheduled introduction of new economic sanctions against Iran, from April to June — because of the problems of Greece, associated with the search for new oil suppliers. The sanctions will "run" in full force after 1 July. By this time, not only Greece, and other EU countries are affected by the Iranian counter-measures have to find other suppliers of crude oil. The message "Press TV" states that in the end, "kontrsanktsy" the price of oil and gasoline in England and the United States have gained a record high.
April 10, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that "Iran can quietly exist in the criteria for a complete ban on the sale of oil in the past two to three years. He noted that the cessation of supplies from Iran cooperated in response to U.S. economic sanctions and the European Union '("RBC"). Ahmadinejad said: "They want to impose sanctions on our oil, and we have to tell them that we have is enough to quiet country living without selling oil two or three years" ("RBC").
Meanwhile, the need to clearly understand the purpose for which Ahmadinejad has started the "oil embargo" of the EU.
"The Iranian leadership expects that at the upcoming meeting between Iran and major world powers can be raised to ease the EU sanctions on the supply of oil from the Islamic republic, reports Xinhua news agency citing Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Qassemi.
"If the Europeans do not cancel the" oil "sanctions, they will feel a significant impact on the market energoelementov, in particular — to the sphere of energy security. We expect good-quality news (the Europeans), and Europe's response to Iran during the Baghdad meeting will be crucial for the oil market, "- Xinhua quoted the words of the Iranian minister '(RIA "Novosti").
But until reconsider the economic sanctions against Iran no one is going: the West is tough against Tehran if not — tough. At the current time in Iran is not intended nor mitigate or cancel the international sanctions, despite the past not so long talks in Istanbul "six". This was stated by deputy. U.S. State Department spokesman Mark Toner (RIA "Novosti", Maria Tobacco). But almost everything is possible, depends on the Baghdad meeting, "six", scheduled for May 23. Specifically for this meeting and lays down some hopes Iran. In the month of oil starvation and Europe can come to their senses.
As the London correspondent. "ITAR-TASS" Vitaly Makarchev acting at the moment the international sanctions against Iran fail to pay tribute least — because lusted to Western countries. This is recognized by the British newspaper "Financial Times", referring to its submission to the data of English Centre for Global Energy research, for which in 2012, Iran will export 56 billion in oil. bucks. The main point here is that if Iran's oil exports declined, the price of oil rose, which compensates for the partial loss of supply. In the end, the sanctions are "not work." (The change in global oil prices in 2011-2012. See, eg., here).
You can make the following conclusion: Iran entering their "kontrsanktsii" against Britain and France, gave the sense, what can turn to the European Union planned introduction of the sanctions. Hence, the financial panic in the same Britain. And because of Greece and just moved the deadline for implementing the new sanctions.
In general, no one Europe "sanction" of Iran. Japan reduces Iranian oil imports in April Iran's oil supply to Japan amount to 77% compared to January and February. Turkey — in the face of oil refining companies' Turpas "- not so long ago announced a reduction of 20% on imports of Iranian oil. And yet this naikrupneyshaya company purchases from Iran a lot of raw materials: for example, in 2010, "Turpas" Iran has bought 7.41 million tons, or 38% of their own purchases ("ITAR-TASS").
That's why as of the 1st of the criterion of the future compromise agreement on May 23 Tehran demanded the immediate lifting of euroallied decision to implement an embargo on Iranian oil imports. With all of this, many stock analysts expect that the oil will fill the lack of Saudi Arabia. However, for this will be the last increment production of "black gold" for 25% of the current level, why, according to the views of Andrew Hall, an analyst and head of the fund "Estenbek", she has no spare capacity. The Saudis will not be able, in his opinion, to increment the volume of production to 12.5 million barrels a day. The expert said: "The fact that Riyadh has decided to reopen the whole depleted field Damman after it was closed 30 years ago, says a lot, including difficulties with the reserves' ("ITAR-TASS").
In the end, hard to imagine what decision will be made in the EU over sanctions: will they be mitigated or Europe remains firm in its own intentions. Perhaps the closest month — very hard for the oil market — show where will lean situation. Iran still sells oil to China, which adds to the strategic supplies, but in the next, bringing supplies to the 40-day to 90-Daily Daily, Beijing is likely to reduce the volume of purchases.
Actually, Iran, the sanctions are not used to. The United States is using sanctions against him in 1996 — on the basis of the law passed by Congress on restrictive sanctions against the country. South American companies can not make money transactions with Iran and participate in the development of oil fields. South American companies have violated the law, will themselves be subject to sanctions.
EU set to thoroughly "nuclear" Tehran in January 2012. Evrosanktsii touched import, purchase and transport of Iranian hydrocarbons and the corresponding financial and insurance operations. Stanislav Ivanov ("Weapons of Russia") Writes on this topic:
"Investing in the Petrochemical Company of Iran or the creation of joint ventures with them is no longer allowed. According to the views of the favorites EU embargo it can cause damage to sensitive Tehran as hydrocarbons, fuels and related products account for over 90% of Iran's exports to the European Union.
Second in terms of article — products of chemical industry — is only 5.2%, on the 3rd place agricultural products (2.6%).
Together with those EU countries consume the least a quarter of Iran selling oil worth about $ 13 billion. dollars a year. A huge part of its own hydrocarbon Tehran exports to China (20%), Japan (18%) and India (16%). None of the
se states until the embargo has not supported, although Japan is trying to reduce its dependence on Iranian oil.
The EU also froze the assets of Iran's Central Bank, located in Europe, trade in gold, precious metals and diamonds with Iranian companies, government agencies and the Central Bank. And prohibited the transfer of banknotes denominated in Iranian currency and coins Iranian central bank, the sale has a number of products. "
In Iran, from January 2012, twice devalued rial, and, as in any country with rampant inflation, rapidly increased the demand for gold and foreign currency. The EU and the U.S., what a great experience in this part of the waiting popular discontent in Iran — and lays down hopes of a revolt of the protesters. But the unrest in Iran — not to mention the armed uprisings, the Libyan similar — not happening. Western strategists have lost sight of one fundamental proposition — the same thing that they missed out on in Syria. In the face of external enemy — and yet the West has never been a great friend of Iran — society does not disintegrate, but rather consolidates.
Because "preventive" economic response to President Ahmadinejad Potrebitelnitsa Europe — together with available evrosanktsiyami — make more difficult not only and not so much the position of Iran, as the positions of the sanktsionerov. Chopping off the branch on which they sit.
II. Iranian Oil Minister: there would be a blessing in disguise CONTRIBUTE
April 17, 2012 TV "Press TV" interviewed the Minister of Petroleum Iran — Rostam Qassemi. Giving an answer to the questions journalist, said the minister followed.
In 1-x, the process of negotiations between Iran and Europe will have an impact on oil prices. After all, Iran — one of the big winners of energy. Because the continuation of negotiations between Iran and the "six" may — with its positive results — positive impact on the stability of the oil market.
In-2, according to the minister, if it comes earlier, Iran may expand the list of countries included in the "kontrspisok." If loosely translated words of the minister, Iran was "ready to give these same and in the same place."
B-3, the Minister does not consider that the decrease in oil production (already at 300 million barrels, and in 2012 is projected at 1 million barrels) threatens the economic security of Iran. As oil production in Iran — the highest, and Iran has its customers, for which there are no restrictions, Rostam Qassemi said.
Fourth, answering a reporter's question to be seen whether Saudi Arabia and Libya to take place on Iranian oil European market, the minister said: "… you witness what is happening in Europe — due to the strength of the market and the price of oil. " The substitution of other suppliers of Iran, the minister said, "impractical" and even can destroy petroleum facilities competitor countries in the future. Such a substitution would be possible only "temporary."
C-5's, not so long ago, having spent talks with the Saudi oil minister, Rostam Qassemi received assurances that Saudi Arabia, "of course, will not change Iranian oil" in the market. In general, the minister added here that the recent statements by the Minister evidence of working. But Rostam Qassemi said that Saudi Arabia can only temporarily increment oil. Even today its production level — the highest.
In addition, Iran's oil minister said that currently Iran exports products of the petrochemical industry in the 50 States, and that it is — "a measured huge market." Countries are also conducting the "antagonistic politics" for oil contracts and transactions, Iran will respond the same.
At the conclusion of the interview Iranian Minister expressed in the sense that there would be no happiness — no luck promote. Sanctions, he said, have given Iran the ability to grow without the help of others. Yes, at the moment there is a huge number of foreign companies operating in Iran and do not obey the sanctions, but there is a large Iranian companies, which came against the backdrop of sanctions branch. "We, — said the minister — is the greatest project — the South Pars field …" the minister said, and the success of the Iranian companies and engineers in the field of high-tech.
III. "A decent answer to the existential threat" and 430 "Tomahawk"
Meanwhile, the main opponents of the Islamic Republic of Iran — Israel and the U.S. — have shown the obvious brutal intentions. According disk imaging resource "Fleet-2017", to refer to the Israeli TV channel «Channel 10" and «SalamNews», obtained the data "on the transition to the implementation of Israel's plan to attack Iran in the event of inefficiency discussions on the nuclear program." In the event of failure to reach agreement in talks with "six", scheduled for May 23, the Israeli army may be ordered to storm the IRI. Means the use of modern aircraft, "F-15" and the drones "Eitan".
In the speech on the occasion of the disaster and heroism of days (days of the Holocaust), Israeli President Shimon Peres said:
"Then we had a question mark now — we are a powerful country … There is no reason to underestimate the obvious and hidden abilities possessed by Israel in order to cope with this (Iran) threat."
"The population of the earth there is no other choice except how to learn lessons of the Holocaust and to give an adequate answer to the existential danger before it will become very late," — said Peres, calling Iran a "center of these threats, the center of Terror" (RIA "Novosti").
U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, in an interview on «CNN» acknowledged that Washington has developed a plan of attack on Iran. "At that Panetta — report "Rosbalt", — Initially tried to steer the conversation in a joke. He said that becoming defense minister, realized that "the Pentagon is developing a lot of plans for all occasions." But the head of the South American Defense Ministry said that if the case goes to strike the United States on Iran, the impact will be successful.
The last U.S. President Obama's adviser on national security James Jones in an interview with "The Washington Times" said that the application of Israeli strike on Iran would be unjustified and inexcusable (RIA "Novosti", Denis Voroshilov), Because the United States provided security assurances to Israel last. Part of the applets to guarantee safety may be the group of U.S. warships with 430 missiles "Tomahawk" (range 1.6 thousand km), on duty at the Iranian coast. "Interfax" reports:
"Information service of the U.S. Navy said that at the current time in the Persian Gulf is a carrier battle group led by the aircraft carrier" Enterprise ". According to reports, the ships and outposts attributed to a group of naval nuclear submarine may have more than 130 cruise missiles.
Another carrier battle group led by the aircraft carrier "Abraham Lincoln", located in the neighborhood in the northern part of the Arabian Sea, has the same amount of "Hatchet".
In addition, in the same region runs attack nuclear submarine "Georgia" with 154 cruise missiles and nuclear-powered submarine, part of the amphibious assault ship's group, on board of which there are 12 "Tomahawk".
Experts, as reported by "Interfax",
consider that the number of such missiles would be enough to disable Iran's air defense systems and military airfields.
IV. America will do without Israel
Meanwhile, Israel and the U.S. shows its not the militant, not the friendly intentions (USA led peace-lover Obama still dissuade Iran Israel storm — at least, require Tel Aviv to postpone their plans until 2014, before his accession to the throne of the new Washington President), Iran attaches fighting capacity of the army and navy. Stanislav Ivanov ("Weapons of Russia") Results in some data.
In 2012, Iran's military spending could exceed $ 20 billion. U.S. planned to increase funding and programs from nuclear. In nedavneshnih aviaucheniyah attended all available Iranian Air Force aircraft, including F-4, F-5, Su-24, MiG-29 and an Iranian fighter, "Sayegh" (improved analogue F-5). Iran has its UAV development and can withstand the subtle enemy drones. "According to Iranian control — wrote on Ivanov — a sign of the power of the Islamic Republic of Iran was also the passage of a group fighting the Iranian ships, consisting of the frigate" Hark "and the destroyer" NACD "through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean Sea to the coast of Syria, shrouded internal strife. "
Apart from defense, the opponents of Iran would have to take into account the strategic ability of this country. Tehran has repeatedly said the likely overlap of the Strait of Hormuz — in case of aggression against Iran. The long war with the South American Navy Iran will not stand, but it may set the Strait of minefields. Aggressors to keep in mind that the strait is transported to four-fifths of the world's oil. The blockade of the Strait, even temporarily, will cause cramping of the world economy. Will be left without oil is not only Britain and France or Greece.
Therefore, taking into account the fact that the fall in the U.S. — Presidential elections — flat military anger of America and Israel against Iran is unlikely. Most likely, the economic pressure will last — maybe even in a relaxed version (after talks May 23), and Iran to cooperate with IAEA inspectors — to work without much haste. Approval as the Yankees and Israeli military strike on look far only the addition of information to economic pressure Iran. If the U.S. does not dare to get into Syria — remembering how about the next election, and about nedavneshnih troubles to build a democracy in Libya — that is too tough for them, and Syrian ally. It seems that the world is increasingly the "leader" given to understand that his time is irrevocably gone.
Some analysts believe that the U.S. is seeking to dominance in the Gulf region, still have "sooner or later" to accept a military solution against Iran:
"… Sharpening confrontation between the U.S. and Iran has one goal: to dominate the Middle East, North Africa and the Persian Gulf. As history shows, issues such geopolitical order by not solved peacefully, because war is the continuation of politics by other means. Well, very well understood, as the United States use their own benefit so-called action. "Arab spring".
But exactly the same strategy implements and Iran. Iranian diplomat MOSH Yazdi in an interview with the Brazilian newspaper «IraNews» January 31 said, for example: "We call it the majestic movement of the Muslim population in the region of the" Arab Spring ", and" Islamic awakening. " I wish to emphasize that we are witnessing the creation of a strong Islamic bloc in the region. On the future of the Middle East, of course, there is no room for states such as Israel or the United States. "
As part of this strategy, Iran swings situation in some Middle Eastern countries — Yemen, Lebanon, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, intensive support of Islamic extremists in Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco. (This list may soon continue to Qatar. — A. Ch.)
Not without difficulty on the part of Tehran was implemented Islamic rebellion in Mali. The rapid spread of bacilli of Islamic fundamentalism, covers all over the vast area the Mediterranean-Middle East region is alarming not only in the United States or Europe, and in almost all Arab countries. And for this reason the United States at some point have to make a decision about a military operation against Iran "(Artem Ivanovsky, "Century").
In the next war, according to the views of Alexander Ivanovsky, can be applied 140000 U.S. soldier in Kuwait, which will strengthen the grouping of the 6th Fleet of the United States. The war will begin with air strikes in which to defeat the nuclear centers can be used 9,500-pound bomb. In addition to the destruction of nuclear facilities, the main objectives of the attack will be destruction of Iranian air force and air defense systems. To help with all this would be the 5th Fleet of the United States. In the second step on the terrain of the country invaded by infantry — perhaps from Afghanistan, where in the near future — in January 2012 — two times were great teaching.
As for Israel, the Ivanovsky writes about his non-participation (no typo) in the anti-Iran war as follows: "… the United States does not want the role of Israel in the war, as it inevitably will restore them, even against the enemies of Iran in the middle of the Arab countries."
It appears, but that the United States has already taught by bitter experience, before the third world war, fraught atomic wind and suicide bombings somewhere in Washington, measure twice and neither the 1st time is not cut off.
Information anger, to which America has eaten dog — is one thing, but a war in the end which will be set against America the whole world — is quite different.
V. Kate Hudson: "The inverted logic is puzzling"
Qatar resource "Al-Jazeera" April 20 published an article doctorate Kate Hudson — the former chairman of the English, "the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament", and now the Secretary General of the organization.
Iran says Dr. Hudson — is not the only country with a commitment to non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and the preservation of peace on the planet. Iran — "only part of the story," says the creator of articles, noting further that President Obama is responsible for naikrupneyshy the world's nuclear arsenal — and all of this is taken to lecture other countries about their nuclear-free duties. Dr. believes that there is "difficult to refute accusations of hypocrisy bolshennom."
To its credit, Obama K. Hudson puts the "diplomatic steps to reduce global nuclear arsenals," including the "New START agreement." "The agreement signed in April 2010, is estimated as an important step in bilateral nuclear disarmament and is a major step in the strengthening of global criteria under which multilateral disarmament can make progress." And referred to Obama's Nobel Peace Prize (2009). But here's the "subsequent acts of the United States failed to meet expectations born of a new contract at the signing of START."
Kate Hudson writes: "In October 2010, just a few months after the signing of the Contract, in a white house proudly announced their own" firm commitment to South American nuclear deterrence ", announcing $ 85 billion. $ To be spent on nuclear infrastructure. "
This unprecedented level of nuclear funding — from the time of the "cold war", says Hudson. And these 85 billion dollars, she writes on — negligible "compared with the total predictable cost in the U.S. $ 700 bill
ion. $ To a nuclear weapon within the next decade. The scale of spending staggering: about 150 per cent of the annual gross domestic product (GDP) of Iran, in accordance with the estimates of international financial foundation. "
Hudson brings the result of the U.S. policy of "nuclear deterrence": "Rather than promoting avoiding escalation of the nuclear policy of the cool war like the distorted values lead only to consolidate the position of nuclear nations, immediately prompting the non-nuclear countries to retreat from their own obligations under the NPT."
Hudson says, for the sake of objectivity on the global cost of more than $ 1 trillion. bucks on nuclear applets. In our homeland, including plans izderzhat 70 billion. dollars over the next 10 years, including the creation of eight submarines, and Britain, "despite the dark economic situation", is ready to spend over $ 100 billion. pounds to maintain the nuclear arsenal and substitute their own "Trident" new systems to about 2060
Because Hudson writes, "no one should be hitting that, when Barack Obama says that" Iran must comply with its obligations, "his words have no effect, and in Tehran, and in much of the rest of the world."
"Indeed — writes Dr. — United States, could be holding a policy which will only push Iran to develop nuclear weapons."
In confirmation of such a possible effect on U.S. policy Hudson gives the following arguments: 1) replaced in order to show true global leadership in the fight against the proliferation of nuclear weapons, the United States shows his "unwavering commitment to" maintaining programs on nuclear weapons, and 2) the history of the South American intervention and manipulation Middle East (and in particular interference in Iran's affairs), as "blatant desire" for a "national interests in the region" have created "a basis for confidence that lasts even today." Further in the article indicates that such a large state government, like Israel, "has an economic and military support to the United States and the principal benefits: no dispute over its nuclear programs from. Such double standards — continues Hudson — have a mind to seat Iran to the negotiating table. "
Dr Kate Hudson notes that "there can be no military solution to this problem." "Israel touted successes of the operation" Babylon "in 1981 — the bombing of the Iraqi nuclear reactor at Osirak, where it was suspected Iraq was developing a nuclear weapon. History is not only pose a swing reliability of these Israeli suspicions, but, more fundamentally, the bombing may have accelerated Iraq's efforts to acquire nuclear weapons lurking over the next 9 years. "
The military option with a ground invasion of Iran seems Kate Hudson "catastrophic." "The human loss could be terrible …" In addition, the region has started to wider conflict.
The only option Kate Hudson sees consistent, transparent and productive diplomatic negotiations. Should be "the beginning of a dialogue." This year, Hudson writes, "the United Nations will hold a conference on the zone free of weapons of mass destruction (WMDFZ) in the Middle East." This conference aims to "unite all the countries in the Middle East to build the foundations for the implementation of this important goal."
Conference could serve as an open platform for discussions on security and disarmament, said Hudson. But there is one "but":
"However, in the past month, Israel has declared that it will not be at the conference, until a" comprehensive peace in the region. " Salting of Israel to the UN Ron Prosor said that while this is not achieved, Israel sees the conference as "absolutely has no meaning." The inverted logic is puzzling — concludes Hudson.
If the United States really want to build a long-term solution problems of the region, they must have a diplomatic pressure productive, not just inflate the debate about military conflict. They can start by stating that Israel is the only government in the Middle East a nuclear-weapon should be on this important principle of the conference. "
So Makar, double standards and "inverted logic" — is not something that will contribute to peace in the region. Those who sees the mote in the eye of Iran, do not smell the log in your own eye.
— Especially for topwar.ru