Iran: The Road to War — or a last chance?

If Iran says its nuclear programm is focused on only for peaceful purposes — that was current in the sockets — that Israel and Western countries have in this respect his worldview, which does not undertake to negotiate even the South American intelligence report not long ago that the work on the creation Tehran nuclear weapons ended in 2003.

At the end of February 2012, according to the report already sixteen (!) U.S. intelligence agencies, the general public, it became clear that "Iran does not lead development to create nuclear weapons, writes« The Los Angeles Times ». The newspaper said the scouts came to the opinion, that these studies were terminated in 2003. " But the document also "stated that Tehran wants to reach such level of knowledge, which will allow him, if necessary, all the same to make a bomb. Authors of the report also notes that Israel absolutely agree with its basic propositions and conclusions "(source of both quotes: http://lenta.ru/news/2012/02/24/theyareright/).

Prehistory "prenuclear crisis" was. Iran is developing nuclear technology has long been — since the 80-ies of the last century, but until then did it so quietly that greatly astonished professionals from the IAEA, who came in 2003 to the conclusion that the Iranians are cleverly concealed its nuclear program from as much as eighteen years. Iran said it was the suspension of nuclear activities, but changed his mind — so much so that in 2006, Tehran announced the continuation of its nuclear programs from. Tehran has given the persistent response of the UN Security Council: In December 2006, Iran had imposed economic sanctions, including those relating to the prohibition of supply Iran with technology that supports the development of nuclear and missile programs from. But Tehran is not so easy to scare. In the spring of 2007, as luck would have it all, Iran has been enriching uranium on an industrial. Since that time, the media began to report on the military operations planned against Iran by Israel, along with the United States. But in 2010, Iran has officially announced the production of seventeen kilograms of highly enriched uranium, and in January 2011 — a full production cycle of nuclear fuel (for details see: http://lenta.ru/story/iran/).

In November 2011, the IAEA published a report in which it was suggested that Iran is developing nuclear weapons. But — just a guess.

February 15, 2012 in a research reactor in Tehran were loaded uranium fuel rods produced in Iran. Rods were made from uranium enriched to 20%. On the same day in Natanz was open line of centrifuges to enrich uranium.

For nine days before the events Barack Obama has ordered the blocking of Iranian cash assets in the U.S., and earlier economic sanctions against Iran, the country entered the European Union. U.S. tried to complicate the work of Iranian banks, and the EU — make it difficult to trade Iranian oil and petroleum products. Iran has threatened to block in response to the Strait of Hormuz, through which transported approximately one fifth of all the oil in the world. In addition, Iran, in spite of the fact that he had to find new markets for its oil, has threatened to freeze oil supplies to Europe — and began with England and France.

Quote from the Article V. Sajin ("Voice of Russia"):

"Iran daily produces about 4 million barrels of oil, about 2 million of them sent for export. Shred Europe, according to various sources, is about 500 thousand barrels, in other words 20-25% of all oil exports. In 2011, Iran was planning for the first time to get from oil exports of about $ 100 billion. bucks. According to rough estimates, Iran could lose from the oil embargo of 15 to 20 billion. bucks in year.

The Iranian economy, and that without the oil embargo is in a precarious state, such a loss would, of course, is not catastrophic, but still sensitive. The Iranian currency — the rial — falls. A couple of years back one U.S. dollar was worth 9700 riyals. In November 2011 — about 11,000 rials. Just after the announcement of the introduction of the ability of an oil embargo by the EU, the rate of the rial fell by more than 70% — one dollar is equal to 17,000 rials. Over the past few months the price of food staples in Iran grew by 40%. "

It is easy to imagine that he expects the economy of Iran, when oil sanctions and the EU will have to join them, perhaps, partly Japan, South Korea and China. The consequence of this will be the inevitable fall in living standards that fully can lead to the growth of discontent and intensify activities in protest. "

February 22, 2012 the IAEA inspectors, which officially expected to visit Tehran, was not allowed to Parchin military complex (30 km from Tehran). Earlier, in late January, the inspectors also were not allowed there. Experts visited Parchin earlier, in 2005, but nothing "criminal" was not found.

Further history has been frequent allegations against Israel and the United States on action against Iran — and, with it, the likely retaliatory strike Iran. In the political story line and harmoniously intertwined economic sanctions.

March 15, the media reported about the new monetary sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran: an off Iranian banks from the system SWIFT — the Society of global inter-bank cash telecommunications. Since March 16, "Iran will not be able to receive funds for the sold oil, Nor will own ability to transfer funds for the purchase of products and services abroad '("Our cafe"). The Executive Director of the SWIFT said: "Disconnecting banks — is an extraordinary and unprecedented step for SWIFT. It is a direct result of international measures to strengthen financial sanctions against Iran "("News" quoting "Associated Press"). The portal ISRAland believe that it is "virtually means the global economic isolation of the Islamic Republic." The Russian service of BBC reported: "This move will impact on Iranians living abroad, because they are no longer able to transfer funds to their homeland. Under attack would also be Iranian companies operating abroad. "

The economic result of the global scale: "… in the evening the 16th on the English stock exchange price of a barrel of oil brand« Brent »increased by 2.5% — to 125.7 bucks. On Wall Street stock exchange price of a barrel of oil brand «Texas» rose by 1.8% — to 107.09 dollars' (ISRAland). (According to the "RBC": the cost of oil varieties «Brent» 16.03.2012 amounted to $ 125.81 per barrel. For comparison: one month back of the barrel of oil cost $ 119.58).

Local economic result: a newspaper said on March 15 "Chicago Tribune" (Makers of the article: Jonathan Saul and Michael Hogan, "Reuters"), Iran buys wheat "at a frantic pace," and the court are in line to unload 396,832 tons of grain. How to write the creators, "Tehran has time to stock up on food to mitigate the impact of harsh Western sanctions." The article notes a curious fact: "To reduce the impact of sanctions, Iran has even started taking wheat from his own enemy — the United States." Also, the creators reported: "In most years, Iran is close to self-sufficiency in wheat, but needs to import at missing the harvest — and particularly
such and is expected this year."

Against this background, by the way, there is a market prosperity Saudi Arabia write about Matthew Robinson and Jonathan Saul ("Reuters") in "Chicago Tribune" March 16. Saudi Arabia, as reported by the journalists involved in the "race of prices" and extends the implementation of U.S. oil. Deliveries of the kingdom, "rose by 25 percent to its highest level since mid-2008, according to preliminary data of the U.S. government …" So makarom Saudi Arabia is trying to compensate for the amount of oil that will lose the world market due to the introduction of sanctions against Iran.

The political result — the "last chance" — described "Kommersant" (Article V. Soloviev)

"Talking about the likelihood of Israel's and the U.S. attack on Iran, diplomats, including the Russian, now instead of the indefinite" if "use specific" when ". "The invasion will happen before the end of the year — said" b "of UN Security Council meeting the other day a senior Foreign Ministry. — Israel, in fact, blackmailing Obama. Put it in a fascinating position: either he would support the war, or he will lose the support (the powerful Jewish lobby. — "B"). "

After meeting Security Council diplomat narrowed the time frame. According to him, in April, a meeting of the representatives of Iran and six mediators to resolve the Iranian nuclear challenge (Russia, England, Germany, China, the U.S. and France), and the Americans insist that Iran is the last chance. Specifically, such a position, the source told "Kommersant" in talks with Lavrov designated Hillary Clinton. At the same time she asked the Russian officer to bring this idea to the Iranian authorities, with whom he keeps in Washington. "

By the way, Barack Obama at a joint press conference with British Prime Minister David Cameron in the Snow White House said: "We will create everything possible to solve the issue of diplomatic ways, but in the end we need someone on the other side of the negotiating table, who would took it all seriously, and I hope Iranian regime understands "(The Russian service of BBC).

The representative of South American Municipal Department for Iran Alan Eyre, by participating in an online session, the State Department, said: "Until that time, Iran has maintained that its nuclear programm is peaceful in nature, but if so, why Iran not cooperating with the IAEA? The purpose of sanctions — the Iranian government, but Iranian citizens are also feeling the impact. We have no other choice "("Bulletin of the Caucasus").

Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Danny Ayalon, Israel's March 17, said: "In the worst case scenario, Iran could go for the use of nuclear weapons" ("Interfax"). (On the slip of the tongue: in the case of access to the latter).

A day earlier, on March 16, "Interfax" reported from Tehran that "Iran is ready to admit international observers to the country, who will work in the country on the same basis, in exchange for the cooperation of Western countries in the development of peaceful nuclear programs from Iran." As told news agency, said this on March 16, Mohammad Javad Larijani, an adviser on foreign affairs supreme governing the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Quote"Ayatollah Adviser said that Iran believes in cooperation with the Western states and the fact that they will sell Tehran enriched uranium to 20%." In general, a similar story has already had a place to be, "Iran twice offered to enrich uranium abroad for a long time but the authorities did not agree to it. Finally, in May 2010, Iran agreed to export low-enriched uranium for enrichment in Brazil and Turkey. But with all this, the Iranian authorities have claimed, that zabugornye spetsy treated uranium faster than is possible "(Lenta.ru,).

"Israel News" on March 17, 2012 on the topic of new Iranian concessions subsequent write:

"Larijani promised not to abandon its uranium enrichment programs from, but offered to sell Iran the West uranium enriched to 20%, for nuclear reactors. According to Arutz Sheva, the proposal makes sense only in the context of stopping Iran's nuclear centrifuges — in the event of termination of uranium enrichment on its territory Iran will need to import fuel for nuclear power plants.

The tightening of economic sanctions on Iran hurts, and polls shortly show a decrease in popularity of nuclear research in the middle of the Iranian population, said Atlantic. If in 2010, 87% of respondents were in favor of the Iranians develop peaceful nuclear research, in February 2011 about his own support for Russia's "peaceful atom" said only 57% of the inhabitants of the country. "

According to the newspaper "Sight", American citizens changed their attitude to the beginning of the war with Iran, "According to polls, the anger against the Islamic countries are ready to support more than half of the Yankees, and most of them would prefer to strike on Iran was dealt hands of Israelis."

In general, about U.S. polls is not that exactly: "Most of the Yankees do not support the likely scenario of power against Iran, believing that the United States should remain neutral and continue a diplomatic pressure, according to data made public on Tuesday, a survey conducted by independent organization World Public Opinion Institute and State Maryland. … 69% of respondents believe that the U.S., together with its allies should continue to be a diplomatic pressure on Tehran, so that he gave up their own nuclear programs. Even supporters of the Republican Party in the middle of the best part — 58% — oppose the U.S. role in the military conflict. If Israel stormed the Iranian nuclear facilities, and 49% believe the U.S. should remain neutral, while 25% believe that Washington should, in this case to provide military assistance to Tel Aviv "("Kommersant").

In the article by M. Zawadzka "Iran considers himself stronger than all the" posted March 16, 2012 on the resource "Arutz Sheva" (Israel7.ru) quoted a presidential spokesman Ali Akbar Javanfekr spoken at the last speech in the Lebanese Maran el-Rass: "The Zionist regime is very weak in order to fulfill his military threats against the Islamic Republic. Iran is not afraid of any enemies, including the Zionist regime occupying forces. " "… The consequences of at least some attack against Iran will not be limited to a blow to the Zionist regime. The bureaucrats in Washington are well aware that the U.S. and its allies will feel the brunt of Iranian anger. "

A small quote from the newspaper "Sight""Iran will respond with full force if Israel dares to storm the Iranian nuclear facilities, it would mean the end of Israel, said on Thursday the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran, Ali Akbar Salehi said in an interview with Danish television channel TV2."

Larijani mentioned above, giving the South American television interview CNN, «said that if Israel or the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities," Sun countries will be able to respond to offenders. " "We have all options are open", — explained the councilor Khamenei "(source: "Our cafe").

In addition, the other day, on March 15, "Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ali Akbar Salehi said Iran will continue to fund the Palestinian movement Hamas. His promise to the Foreign Minister of the Republic gave during the meeting in Tehran with representatives of the Palestinian movement, Mahmoud al-Zahar, the organization responsible for external communication "(«Federal Press»). It is, of course, about the support the Palestinians, who do not like Israel.

In appendage, another quote from "Red Star" (Creator of articles — A. Orlovich): "… the president of this country, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad once said that" Iran has a very serious military capabilities that are different from the ability of other states in the region. Iran will respond to what ever the aggressor, including the United States, and they are afraid of our potential. We will not allow any military action against himself. " Show the same determination and other officials Iran. So, on the days of the Minister of Defence of the Islamic Republic of Ahmad Vahidi highlighted, commenting buildup of American military power in the Persian Gulf, the country is not fully open their own fighting abilities. "Iran has a lot of energy, which has been called,'ll save for a rainy day," — he said. He added that if such day or the coming of "the United States will face a very modern situation." (The article Orlovich, by the way, is a detailed feature Sun Iran and talks about "asymmetric warfare", based on the principles of the highest motivation, high-quality training of military personnel, as the implementation of "retaliation" suicide bombers. "The Iranians can bring ships bombers to blow desalination systems that supply fresh water to 90 percent of the waters of the Persian Gulf. As a result, the region will die of thirst. What are the capitals of the monarchies no doubt. " So ends the article of Orlovich).

In general, Iran seemed to hint: do not stroke the cat the wrong way — will release its claws.

On the topic of a possible military confrontation between Iran and Israel are already a variety of television jokes — about how to behave in the two conflicting parties. Knows about this article in the newspaper "Washington Post" March 17 (referring to the "Associated Press"). An example of one such jokes: "… Israel will not cause air strike, as the price of fuel for the fighters is very high." Under jokes are seen to completely hide the real horrors. This article talks about the video "The Last Day", posted not long ago on YouTube. This "five-minute clip that scored hundreds of thousands of hits on YouTube, — close to the reality of the movie about the end of the world, showing the following day after an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities."

Strained relations between Iran and Israel, come down to military threats, helped perhaps sharp and memorable statements of the Iranian president, who led the media to this day. Quote from the "Jewish newspaper" for December 2005 (the creator of articles — K. Zubkov)

"How to read favorite of Iran's Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini, Israel must be wiped off the map. That God desires. And with God's help we will soon see a world in which the United States will not and Zionism! Though some who recognize Israel will burn in the fire of the Islamic anger. " This sensual speech was Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at the opening conference "World Without Zionism" that took place in the walls of the Iranian Ministry of the Interior. The Islamic Republican News Agency (the only media in Iran, which is allowed to quote top managers) argues that the president's words found a general approval in the middle of Tehran students and scholars. " Iran's ambassador to the European countries have tried to soften the meaning of the words of its own president, stressing the political engagement of interpretations, but "all the efforts of Iranian and Russian diplomats to smooth the effects of Ahmadinejad's speeches were ruined by him. Speaking at a rally on the occasion of the "Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian people," the Iranian president said: "I have said what I want to say. My words — words of the Iranian people. In the West, can comment on my words as they wish, but their response does not mean anything. " Immediately right after that Iranian ambassadors to Britain, France and Germany, who were not able to explain clearly to the heads of European foreign ministers have been removed from his post and recalled to his homeland "(same source, http://www.evreyskaya.de/archive/artikel_139.html).

Now, after starting the SWIFT-sanctions, Larijani advisor Ayatollah, "assured that in the words of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that" Israel will be wiped off the map "," of course, do not invest a military sense, "and" such an approach is not the policy of Iran "(source: "Israel News" March 17).

Of course, Larijani is not afraid of layoffs.

Surveyed and translated Oleg Chuvakin
— Especially for topwar.ru

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