Iran: War will not be if Ayatollah promise not to make nuclear bombs

I. Israel threatens Iran does not stop

April 14 in Istanbul (according to other sources, in Damascus, and even in Baghdad, as Iraq now — one of Iran) have to go through the negotiations of the "six" (Our homeland, the United States, England, Germany, China, France) with Iran. 6 countries mediator with the IAEA demand that Tehran cease uranium enrichment. It is believed that implements the program from Iran to develop nuclear weapons under the guise of peaceful nuclear applications.

Evidence that President Ahmadinejad create an atomic bomb, exactly the same as they were about the bomb Saddam Hussein. But once Gaddafi renounced the development of nuclear weapons, and his fate now — the most powerful historical factor is taken into account in Iran. Listen to world democracy — for themselves more will come.

Besides, no one, including the IAEA and the choice of American intelligence, and failed not justify that Iran are working to develop an atomic bomb.

That's why, as seems Iran is led by its own main critics in quotes — Israel and the United States, and countries in Western Europe, singing along to Tel Aviv and Washington into a harmonious democratic choir, consisting entirely of fighters for peace with white doves on their shoulders.

Quote: "Iran does not end uranium enrichment and will not close nuclear to Ford. This was stated by Managing the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Fereydoon Abbasi Davani vserasprostranennuyu in response to the publication of The New York Times about the fact that a group of "five plus one" (UN Security Council permanent members and Germany) wants to reclaim the Islamic Republic in the upcoming negotiations private offerings near the town of Qom facility to Ford, which is enriching uranium to a level of 19.75 percent "("BBC News"). The second quote: "Unfortunately, the danger of an attack and come from certain countries within the group" five plus one "- he added (Fereydoon Abbasi Davani. — Charles O.) and recommended the West" to abandon the language of sanctions and threats "in a dialogue with Iran," then there will be no need to build civilian nuclear facilities under the ground "(same source).

So Makarov, "six" blames Iran of trying to make a nuclear weapon, Tehran, in turn, blames the "six" in the brutal intentions.

The official Tel Aviv believes (and in other words all reason) that Iran will not give up its own nuclear applets. But Israel holds a unique point of view on the issue, and specifically such, according to which Tehran nuclear programm — not peace, but war.

Ehud Barak, the Israeli defense minister, on the day or in an interview with CNN, said: "I do not believe that the existing sanctions and political pressure will force Iran to understand the need for close control of its military nuclear program" ("Segodnya.ua").

As reported by "Rosbalt", Ehud Barak was "convinced that in order to" drive Tehran into a corner, "you must take" the most severe sanctions, which only is possible. " The minister added that Israel would consider the six-party talks success only in that case if Iran agrees to end its uranium enrichment up to 20%.

The supplies are enriched nuclear fuel should be transferred to "credible" adjoining country, I'm sure Barak.

Minister, as the ITAR-TASS news agency, also stressed that Israel has not yet made a decision, "what to do" with the Iranian nuclear applets. According to Barak, as there is no specific date, "to which a decision must be made."

"We have a limited time. We do not necessarily decide the following week, but we can not expect for years ", — said the Minister."

As we see, the head of Israel's Defense Ministry does not fluctuate that Tehran's nuclear programm — the military. And, it seems, in common with Iran militant Israel will find.

And here is one more aggressive statement — is from Iran:

"Well-known Iranian cleric Gholamreza Mesbahi Moghadam, who belongs to an influential parliamentary group of businessmen and members of the clergy, has confirmed that Iran has sufficient knowledge and technical equipment for the production of nuclear weapons. For all this, he said, Tehran will never agree to such a move because it does not pursue a similar policy, reports Associated Press.

Statement by Mr. Mogadama appeared on the news website of the Iranian parliament. Still, his words have been filed as a personal point of view, which may not coincide with the policy of the country.

Note that these comments prominent political and religious entity on Iran's ability to make an atomic bomb appeared in the public domain for the first time "("RBC").

More on this topic from "Russian service of BBC»:

"Correspondent BBC BBC reports that the deputy (Mogadam. — Charles O.) is neither a military nor the control of nuclear programs from Iran, and it is not clear what is the basis of his statement.

Western experts believe that even if Iran has the necessary technology and raw materials for the production of a nuclear bomb on it still will take years. "

A diplomatic confrontation between Iran and Israel have already run across and intercultural level.

II. Gunter Grass: "What is to be said"

German writer Günter Grass, winner of the Nobel Prize for Literature, was banned on days of arrival in Israel. Since then, the writer found an anti-Semite — for his poem in which lines are not palatable to Israel.

Quote:

"It was reported that the winner of the Nobel Prize in Literature Günter Grass has criticized Israel in a poem, describing Jewish government" a threat to world peace. "

Grass urged the international community to prevent a military strike by Israel on Iran, also condemned German arms deliveries Jewish state "("NTV").

Another quote:

"Nuclear Power, Israel puts in danger the fragile peace" — he writes in a poem entitled "What needs to be said." 84-year-old writer in the text asks to organize a "continuous monitoring" is not only over the Iranian nuclear facilities, and over Israel's nuclear capabilities.

"I can not remain silent any longer, as the hypocrisy of the West fell across my throat, — says Grasse. — Now you can assign that freed from the shackles of silence and others and call the culprit apparent threat to renounce violence. " With all of this first poem creator writes that those who talk about it, he would expose himself threat because it is often a verdict "anti-Semitism" ("BBC News").

And more:

"After the publication of the poem in the press Gunter Grass really began referring to an anti-Semite. He immediately recalled that he served in the Waffen-SS. 84-year-old writer said this in his own autobiographical book "The bulb memory" which was published in Germany in 2006 and became a sensation. Previously, it was clear he had just served in the army during the second world war, but about the service in the elite units of the SS, he had never been told '("Lenta.ru
,").

The writer not only there were detractors, and defenders:

"In an interview with Sueddeutsche Zeitung writer said that he had to rephrase my poem differently, that" it was clear that I'm talking about the government of Netanyahu. "

"I often took the side of Israel. Many times I have visited this country and I wish that this country was and that she was able to finally make peace with the adjacent countries, "- said Grasse.

It is clear that in his youth Gunter Grass served in the Waffen-SS. This fact Grass secret right up to 2006.

Interestingly, in Grasse in Israel were found and not just critics, and intercessors.

The journalist Gideon Levy, in his own column in the newspaper Haaretz criticized the decision of the Israeli authorities to declare Grass person non grata and offered to listen to the words of the writer "("Russian service of BBC»).

And 'admiration for this versatile product on Saturday expressed Iran's deputy culture minister Javad Shamakdari … "("NTV").

In general, everything is clear: the fact that Israel condemns Iran approves.

III. We can, but we will not

U.S. behave in the history of nuclear-hysteria to calm Israel. Not that affects the difference in the distances to Iran, not the reluctance to meddle in the war before the fall's presidential election — a war fraught with suicide bombings and other nasty moments. At times it may even seem that America is quite fair words from Tehran — Washington and back down from it.

According to «Armenia Today», The United States "may approve nuclear program from Iran if the Islamic Republic supreme managing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei impressive establishes that Tehran would never create nuclear weapon. This was said to the newspaper "Washington Post".

According to the newspaper disk imaging, these words are Obama's favorite Iranian conveyed to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who met with Khamenei last week.

With all this it is not clear whether the United States is willing to allow Iran to enrich uranium on its territory. This question seems to remain unresolved until the beginning of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program … "

Quote from the "Expert":

"As said Rose Gottemoeller, and. about. U.S. Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, Washington recognizes Iran's right to peaceful nuclear energy, but that's necessary to prove that the atom is really peaceful. "We pin our hopes that the upcoming talks of" six "with Iran, we will be able to get answers to your questions," — she said, assuring that neither the U.S. nor the West does not want war in the region. She said that Washington is using the military, intelligence, strategic and diplomatic channels, that at all levels to share information with Israel, and assessments of the situation. Barack Obama, according to a diplomat conveyed to the control of Israel, that "in anyone's interest to apply the one-sided attacks on Iran." Note Moscow believes that Washington still does not use all possible leverage in order to motivate Tel Aviv to abandon the military solution to the question format.

The Israeli press, with reference to high-ranking sources in defense circles, reports that action against Iran Tipo postponed to 2013. Media report that the premise of this — the emerging effects of economic sanctions. According to the views of the authorities of Israel, Tehran has not made a decision to start enriching uranium for military purposes "("Expert", Evgeny Novikov).

Meanwhile, the United States decided something other than diplomatically steps and roles in "six". America, together with the Arab countries of the Cooperation Council of the Gulf (GCC) is considering the implementation of plans to deploy missile defense systems in the Gulf region.

"According to the views of the Minister of Defense of Iran, Washington is trying to make it appear that Iran poses a serious threat to the Gulf states, which do not support these claims.

Earlier Friday, Foreign Minister of Bahrain Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, in an interview with the Japanese newspaper "Asahi" said that the United States and the countries of the GCC, in general, have agreed to develop a missile defense system in the region in the event of the appearance of the seat of tension in Iran. He added that Iran — the only source of threats to the GCC states. In his view, a single missile defense system should be a "right signal" to Iran.

At the current time in the region, anti-aircraft missiles Patriot already established in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates … "(RIA "Novosti").

Hence, apparently, takes roots and information in the press on "Russian threat." Anecdotal, of course.

IV. Russian threat

"Iranian news agency FARS, referring to Western media reports that Our homeland pulls troops to the Caucasus, preparing to defend its interests in the region, in the case of Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

The agency quoted the website GenerationalDynamics.com, according to which the Russian command is confident that in the event of an attack on Iran, the United States deployed their troops in Georgia and Azerbaijan.

In this regard, our home is located on the coast of the Caspian Sea its anti-ship missiles and deploys battle group, equipped with a tool radius distant acts notes NEWSru.co.il.

The task of this group, according to experts, is to apply a pre-emptive strike to prevent the emergence of regional bases of the U.S. Army and the establishment of control over the South Caucasus energy corridor "("Rosbalt").

In general, our native land, and in fact allows for the possibility of a military scenario on Iran's "nuclear issue":

"The head of the Duma committee on international affairs Alex gun should not rule out that the preservation of the vector of the situation surrounding Iran could lead to the outbreak of hostilities in the current year.

"For the Russian Federation in principle, will the 2012 year newest war. If the situation with Iran will go on the worst-case scenario, and this is the premise that the State Duma will consider the application on the Iranian situation. At this point "on the table" several scenarios, among which is the so-called "war scenario", and judging by the statements of a number of countries, this military scenario is becoming more affordable. This causes great anxiety, "- said the gun is Friday at the" round table "in the State Duma on the situation in Iran.

Pushkov also said that Our homeland as before exclude military intervention as a script for a solution to the Iranian problem "(RIA "Novosti").

But the success of the April close of negotiations, "six" on Iran's nuclear program there Pushkov ranges (see above designated source).

In the peaceful development of the situation with Iran fluctuate many — and because the media can find many predictions and scenarios emergency war.

V. Why are the enemies of Iran are afraid of him to make war

At a probable confrontation between Iran and Israel or with Isra
el and the U.S. have a lot of qualities.

In 1-x, at the moment there are wide economic sanctions, which are considered in the U.S. are already building effect — and will have an impact on the impending negotiations, "six". In other words, America believes in the victory of diplomacy and economic measures of influence far greater than in the victorious battle of Israel — who even offered not so long ago, a massive bunker busters in exchange for the postponement of the military operation against Iran.

In-2, Tehran promised myself not to start a war, but in the case of military aggression of Israel, of course, would retaliate and Israel and the U.S., considering that the first act with the approval of the latter. What about retaliation have different views, but most analysts agree on the fact that Israel will have hard times. Quote:

"Analysts on Middle East issues convinced that Iran will take retaliatory action if Israel will strike on its nuclear facilities, although the strength of the nature and purpose of retaliation remains a mystery, writes The Washington Times.

Iran has several options, including a large-scale military actions which girths the whole region, a more limited attack by its own allies in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip or a terrorist campaign against the embassies of Israel and Jewish targets around the world, says the article.

"Retaliation will result in global effects, including the slowdown in economic growth due to the increasing price of oil and gasoline, fuel shortages due to disruptions to place from the Persian Gulf and the possibility of joining the United States in the latest war," — writes the creator of the material Ben Birnbaum.

"After hitting Iran there own strategic problem — Kronig said Matthew, a researcher at the Nuclear Security at the Council on external relations. — On the one hand, Iran must be answered in order to save face in their own country and recreate the source of intimidation at the international level. On the other hand, he will not want to join the fight against Israel and the U.S., as this could lead to the fall of the regime. So, — the expert — he tries to reconcile his reaction — to do something, but not very much "(Ben Birnbaum, «The Washington Times», Translation — «InoPressa»).

The implication is that Iran will connect to military action "Hamas" and "Hezbollah", which will cause the missile attacks on Israeli towns. And Tehran has missiles distant radius acts "Shahab-3", which also fly somewhere. What to read about the organization of the attacks, which will begin immediately on all fronts of the best — but is it lust repetition America on September 11? Because meddle in Iran creepy, and that's why the U.S. and Israel discourages there to climb: because Washington will (or can get difficult to judge) on the head of Tehran and Iran for the attack undertaken by the Tel Aviv.

B-3, Iran threatened an attack on him in Israel and the United States to block the Strait of Hormuz — although long blockade of the Strait hardly likely. However, even short-term lock will prevent the global oil trade. Large-scale confrontation between the U.S. Navy in the Strait of Iran is unlikely to survive, but Tehran has two 10-ka submarines of its construction, and in the Strait of Iranians can install minefields.

Fourth, the world is now again made to fear "Russian threat" (see Chapter IV), and the stubborn rumors about the concentration of Russian troops on the coast of the Caspian Sea should be very disturbing those who weighs the Israeli and South American bunker busters, designed for an air strike on Iran nuclear facilities, and come up with the gloomy military scenarios.

C-5's, Iran is friends not only with Syria, and Iraq. For the United States fought for it and ran: "… Iran after the fall of Saddam Hussein's Iraq draws heavily into its orbit, despite the fact that the regime engaged in the liquidation of the U.S. and its allies. Who can say for sure that Iraq's Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki — a great friend of Tehran. Iran's invitation to "six" in Baghdad — a shot for the U.S.: it is the official statement of the fact that the 9-year-old Washington's war effort in Iraq made this country a different Iran, an enemy the United States "("Expert", Evgeny Novikov). In that friendship poured out of Iran with Iraq and Syria at the beginning of the war, no one presage is not taken. But there is one thing is for sure: international love for America in the region will increase. And the election America, prone in recent years to the relative peacefulness and not to meddle with the risk of their own armed democracy in Syria, it is perfectly understands. And right behind Iraq and Syria to Iran will become close friends Qatar, United Arab Emirates — and in general, all countries of the Persian Gulf. Why? Read more.

Sixth. This is something analysts are silent. Either they do not believe in what the Israeli bomb strikes the thick concrete bunkers Iran, in what are working on "a nuclear weapons program?" But there is another South American bombs. Washington a month back officially offered Israel a massive supply of bunker bombs GBU-28 (weight of 2.25 tons, the weight of the penetrating warhead 306 kg, breaks through 6 meters of reinforced concrete), and along with air tankers distant radius — in exchange for Tel Aviv must delay airstrike on Iran in 2013. In general, there is information, Washington has long been that delivers such a heavy bomb Tel Aviv, since 2009. Maybe now America has decided to legalize the supply to find a good reason for this. It is interesting also that:

"During the presence of the presidency of George W. Bush the United States refused to sell Israel to the kinds of guns, believing that Tel Aviv is using them to attack Iran. As written, the Israeli newspaper «Haaretz», with the arrival of Snow White House Obama, Washington has approved several requests from Tel Aviv to sell weapons.

Several letters from the U.S. diplomatic correspondence, which were deployed portal WikiLeaks, showed their differences regarding weapons of Israel. In one of the reports, dated November 2009, in which it came to matters of defense 2-states, said that "the two sides discussed the sale of bunker bombs to Israel GBU-28, and it was stressed that their transfer should take place without the noise in order to avoid accusations of Washington in aid to Tel Aviv in an attack on Iran "(source: "Pros and Cons").

So, bunker bombs fell, the thickness of the earth and concrete was broken — and Chernobyl, which, like the rest of Russia's ills, so love to remind Americans and Western Democrats in general, the computer will seem a toy in comparison to what will follow the air strike on the nuclear facilities 6 Iran (Parchin, Qom, Arak, Natanz, Isfahan, Bushehr). This is the sixth. And then the wind blows …

And South American Mineral satellites — Qatar, UAE, Kuwait and others — find out what is radiation sickness, and general misery with Iran voedinyzhdy connect them against the United States. A global oil prices in the event of nuclear disaster could rise to such heights that many people will get out of the car and change on large or start walking. The global auto industry will find out what a real crisis, and not just the difficulties of recession or overproduction. The increase in oil prices play into the hands of — the one U.S. presidential candidate Mitt Romney has recently referred to the "enemy number one" for America.

The United States is in
such terrible stories like hell will not participate — at least, until 2013, and most likely, never. Enough with them on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and tent cities — New guvervilley, baptized as often recalls based on today majestically depression. Atomic "democratic wind", walk on the Persian Gulf, much less before the presidential election, America does not need. (Why is supplied States Israel GBU-28, you might ask. So do not gratuitously supply). Because Israel with his brutal plans or risk being left alone, or take a wait — until 2013. If the U.S. election will overcome Obama, War with Iran will not be, and can be fully on the world map you will see another nuclear power. But if you overcome combative Mitt Romney supporter growing South American "defense" budget, vospryanuvshy after Obama's Pentagon budget cuts may lend "a helping hand" of Tel Aviv.

I wish you all a peaceful sky overhead.

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