As some experts say, is a warning dictated by several considerations Washington. In 1-x, the United States did not have time to concentrate in the Persian Gulf rather manpower and resources to support an ally, and without it he does not cope with Iran. In-2, such statements mislead Washington wants Tehran about the real terms of attack on Iran. B-3, to give the international community to realize that the military operation against Iran is imminent due to the growth of Tehran's nuclear ambitions. By the way, this "argument" is forcing Washington to hurry with the implementation of their plans, as the Iranian authorities reiterated their readiness to cooperate with the IAEA and the agency aims to February 21 in Tehran delegation to discuss nuclear programs from the country. Managing the inspection team Nakerts Herman stated that the agency wants to get the answers to all issues. And it is possible that evidence that Iran has a nuclear programm military nature, will find.
But specifically about the presence of Tehran's plans for the creation of nuclear weapons and constantly say in the U.S. and in Israel. So, speaking on February 2 Herzliya international security conference, the chief of Israeli military intelligence AMAN Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi said that Iran is rapidly developing its nuclear capability and has already accumulated more than four tons of enriched materials and nearly 100 kilograms of uranium enriched to 20 percent level, which is enough for four bombs.
The general added that the adoption of the decision on Iran's production of nuclear weapons "is less a matter of technical ability and more depends on the solutions of 1 person." "If the (control of Iran), Ali Khamenei will give the order to begin the creation of the first nuclear weapons, it will be constructed, as we believe, during the 1st year", — said Kochavi.
In addition, the general said that the enemies of Israel, the first Lebanese Shiite terrorist organization "Hezbollah", Syria, and Iran, have aimed at population centers of the country, some 200,000 rockets. According to him, every tenth house in southern Lebanon is used to store rockets or rocket launchers. These missiles are capable of hitting targets in the central region of the country, including Tel Aviv.
In turn, the Minister of Defense Ehud Barak said at the same conference, you need to take decisive action and stop Iran's nuclear program from before it's too late. Barak said that unlike previous years now, no one hesitates in the ambitions of the Islamic Republic and the threat that would be a nuclear Iran for the Near East and other countries. The Minister of Defence plans called for a military operation against Tehran in case the sanctions will be powerless to force Iran to curtail its nuclear program from management.
The forum addressed in Herzliya and Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Ya'alon, head of the Ministry of Strategic Affairs. He said that at the current time, the Israeli armed forces are capable of air strikes to kill all of Iran's nuclear facilities. During performances Ya'alon said that the international community has to own a huge amount of funds available to neutralize the Iranian danger: political pressure, economic sanctions, support for the Iranian opposition, and as a last resort — military strike.
Ya'alon said that the Iranians still did not believe in the effectiveness of sanctions and the possibility of a military strike, but, in his words, "all that is built by man, it can be destroyed", including Iran's nuclear facilities. In this regard, Deputy Prime Minister recalled that the explosions at a military base of the Revolutionary Guards' Amir al-Momenin ", located about 45 km southwest of Tehran, the Iranians denied the ability to create 10 missiles with a range of thousands of kilometers, threatening not only the region, and particularly the United States. As you know, the Iranians accused in this action the Israeli foreign intelligence service "Mossad".
According to the newspaper "Washington Post", Israel may decide to strike before Iran has completed the construction of fortifications at military nuclear facilities. "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not want the fate of the Jewish state was dependent on the actions of the Americans," — wrote the newspaper. She believes that an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities can last for 5 days and then be followed by UN Security Council resolution on a cease-fire.
Earlier, Israeli newspapers reported on five possible options for an air attack on Iran, if the management of the country will dare to act without the help of others, or at least publicized military-technical support of the United States. 1st: combat aircraft can proparhat Iran to the south — over the reddish sea and Saudi Arabia. 2nd — combat aircraft will be selected to Iranian facilities through the air space of Jordan and Iraq. The length of both routes is about 1,600 km.
3rd — strike can be applied through the mediation of Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The route with all this is over the line of the border of Iraq and Kuwait. The fourth — through the air space of Syria and Turkey. But now, it is unlikely that Turkey would agree to their involvement in the Israeli attack on Iran.
Fifth, the smallest, the route — through Syria and Iraq (about 1,500 km). But in this case, the Syrians will try to shoot down Israeli planes and will be part of the Air Force to use in the settlement of the Syrian air defense systems — radars, anti-aircraft missile systems products and fighter airfields.
Israeli journalists believe that in any case the Air Force will have to use more than 100 machines, the third part of which is likely to be lost.
What's all the same for the U.S., they continue to increase the grouping of forces and means, located in the Persian Gulf. Namely, the Pentagon, as reported by Iranian media, citing sources in law enforcement agencies, situated at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar squadron strategic bombers B-1B. This air base has the longish in the Middle East, the runway (4.5 km) and can accommodate 120 combat aircraft, 80 of which will be hidden in underground hangars. The results of aerial surveys indicate that U.S. air base at the present time there are 6 of these bombers. The supersonic B-1B «Lancer" with variable-sweep wing aircraft has been created as a breakthrough low-altitude air defense and entered service with the U.S. Air Force in 1986. At the current time in service are 64 cars, each of which is a carrier of 16-24 cruise missiles with the greatest range of 360-3.000 km. It is clear that they are equipped 53rd wing combat the introduction of the Air Force Center (Florida) and two bomber wing of the 12th Air Army (Texas and South Dakota).
The photographs air base, located in the media, also seen a huge number of other military aircraft, including large transport aircraft C-17, C-130, RC-135 tanker and the RC-10, maritime reconnaissance P-3 "Orion&quo
t; aircraft also distant radar E-8. Iranian media, citing local professionals say that Tehran would be able to kill an air base their rockets in the first hours after a possible U.S. attack.
While acknowledging the undisputed technological advantages of U.S. forces and their allies, some experts believe, coupled with the fact that Iran has a chance to survive, but in this case he will not play by the rules of the South American and elect a strategy of asymmetric response. Apparently, it is understood and in Iran. According to the commander of the Revolutionary Guards, General Jaafari, Iran will conduct "asymmetric war". It is, namely, involves mining the Strait of Hormuz, attack oil tankers and U.S. warships Fleet missile boats and boats loaded with explosives.
According to estimates of professionals, passive defensive strategy chosen by the Yugoslavs in 1999, has led to Iran to defeat. The Yugoslav administration in the spring, after the start of the NATO bombing not dared to strike at U.S. military bases in Italy and South American troops impose ground battles, though, as we know, the Western Army, completed self-employed, are poorly adapted for the resistance struggle. These fighters are ready to serve Radzivil in peacetime, but their fighting spirit in the absence of ideological motivation falls sharply on the battlefield. Western public is very sensitive to the military losses, not the case in the South American commanders tried in 2003 (well after) to adjust their military losses in Iraq.
The Turkish newspaper Milliyet, citing the Kuwaiti press has recently announced the hypothetically plausible options Tehran and Damascus against foreign intervention. According to the journalists, the act may turn to the "six major fronts."
Persian Gulf. Iranian Navy stormed the western trade and transport ships, including oil tankers, and hinder the supply of hydrocarbons from the region. The Iranians could also try to block the Strait of Hormuz by sea mines. Oil prices rise sharply, the situation of the world economy, in particular the European Union, will worsen.
The Arabian Peninsula. Pro-Iranian group stormed the South American military bases in Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. It is clear that Manama (capital of Bahrain) — is the main parking lot of the 5th U.S. Navy and Air Force Base Sheikh Isa based tanker aircraft. The UAE has placed an American airbase Al Dharfra, there are major fuel depots for the U.S. Army.
Suez Canal. Movement "Hamas" ("Islamic Resistance Movement") with the support of the Iranian soldiers of the Revolutionary Guards will try to destabilize the situation in the area of the channel to disrupt the transfer of the military forces of the United States and the European Union through the strategic waterway. To the south of the acts being dubbed the Islamists from Yemen and Somalia, and the path through the reddish sea will also be difficult.
Afghanistan. Iranian security forces posodeystvuyut organize the most powerful attack against the forces of the U.S. and its Western allies. Tehran will help opponents of the West means and instrument. Taking into account the presence of significant portion of the Afghan-Iranian border, Tehran simply arrange deliveries guns and ammunition to the Taliban, as needed can be flown to Afghanistan, Iranian special purpose units.
Lebanon. Shiite paramilitary organization and political party "Hezbollah" will take under his control the whole area of the country of Lebanon. From this base, it will be able to deploy offensive operations against Israel. "Hamas" is also storming Israel from the Gaza Strip. Their actions will support in one form or another the Syrian army. This, incidentally, will allow the Syrian control "prompt" Sunni extremists operating in the areas of the country, the new object for their own attacks.
Kurdistan. If Turkey would dare to support U.S. strike on Iran, some part of the Kurdish militias may become a temporary ally of Iran and Syria. On Turkey will be under pressure from three sides — from the Syrian, Iraqi, and Iranian borders (areas of habitual residence of the Kurds). Immediately rebel Kurds in southeastern Turkey. Kurds will target the Turkish military and the U.S. bases in Turkey, namely the large American airbase at Incirlik south. Kurdish units receive weapons and ammunition from the Syrians and Iranians.
The most opposite in this situation that the contraction forces in the Persian Gulf and fanning the situation could derail already begun the process of negotiations between Tehran and various international organizations. Many countries, our first home, take the position that no force acts, or even sanctions will not solve the Iranian problem of posodeystvuyut.