While the Israeli public opinion expresses more hesitation on the need for a possible strike against Iran's nuclear facilities, information from military sources point to the fact that the armed conflict is prepared not only Israel, Yes, Iran and its allies, namely the Lebanese Hezbollah. Any of the parties to intensify training so that if war should have started tomorrow. And, as history shows, the military occasionally hum from scratch.
In this regard, Jerusalem many concerned about double game of, which on the one hand supports the U.S. position in the mind of the coming vote on sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programs from (none adekvatnomyslyaschy people do not believe in its peaceful nature), and on the other hand takes an active role in modernization of the Iranian and Syrian armed forces. Israeli intelligence says that since the beginning of May, Iranian Islamic revolution take place on Russian bases secret training in the management of missile systems S-300 to be delivered to Iran. Moscow is not going to vote for tougher sanctions, prohibiting the supply of equipment to the country of such type. She had already decided to sell Tehran fighters Mig-29 missiles, "Shell", armored vehicles and other weapons.
Participating in Moscow on May 9, Israeli President Shimon Peres told about their own fears, Dmitry Medvedev, which said that our homeland has the full right to choose the very buyers. Barack Obama's adviser on nuclear issues, made on May 11, quite a dramatic statement: "The United States put Russia aware of the fact that the delivery to Iran of modern air defense system will result in severe consequences for Russian-American relations." President Medvedev, in turn, said that the advice from the ocean it is not necessary. Israel sets these facts the more weight that China, too, apparently, is not ready to prohibit the re-Iran sanctions.
Such a configuration of the military situation prompted Barack Obama to revise its own relations with Israel (and namely Benjamin Netanyahu), which will soon become quite contentious. After consulting with his top professionals, Dennis Ross (Dennis Ross, adviser to the Gulf countries), Dan Shapiro (Dan Shapiro, the Middle East bureau chief of the National Security Council) and Rahm Emanuel (Rahm Emanuel, special adviser to the president), he sent them to establish business with South American rabbis. In addition, the U.S. president gave an indication George Mitchell (George Mitchell) to end the pressure on Israel on the settlement of the conflict with the Palestinians.
In Israel, such a turn explain the approach of elections in the United States and the eagerness of Democrats to save Jewish voters. Together with this, the diplomatic deadlock and the inability to reach the United States from the Russian Federation and China's significant support for tougher sanctions to Israel assign new weight in the eyes of the American administration. Now Washington is considering Jerusalem as the only reliable strategic ally in the Middle East. Yet, this does not mean that Barack Obama at one point was fascinated by Benjamin Netanyahu and will not again try to press on Israel, In order to force his government to start negotiations with the Palestinians. Just at the moment he has other values.
Strengthening the Navy
For the configuration of the policy followed by the strengthening of the U.S. military presence (first marine groups) in the Mediterranean Sea and the Persian Gulf. May 21 nuclear-powered aircraft carrier "Harry Truman" left the base in Norfolk, to join his own "employee", "Dwight Eisenhower" in the Arabian Sea. Total to August this year off the coast of Iran would possibly 4-5 U.S. aircraft carriers.
Israeli experts perceive these maneuvers as the Yankees zeal to prevent unilateral IDF operation in Iran. The doctrine of the former Israeli prime minister Menachem Begin, still remains in force. She says that "Israel will not tolerate any attempts to own enemies get nuclear weapon." This principle has already been used twice in practice. June 7, 1981 sixteen F-16s and eight F-15 killed an Iraqi reactor "Osirak". In September 2007, the same fate realized and Syrian reactor on the banks of the Euphrates. But if the first attack plans were submitted for the approval of Ronald Reagan, then a second strike (his in Israel in general prefer not to advertise) notified the Yankees just a few hours before the operation.
Everything looks so that the Israeli military, despite the leaking of their information is still not interested in that, that the very conduct an operation in Iran. In the strengthening of South American military presence in the region, they behold the confirmation of support from the United States. On the aircraft carrier "Truman" is seven groups F/A-18 Hornet, a group of spy planes E-2 Hawkeye, the means to fight against enemy radars and anti-submarine helicopters. The main purpose of this armada, obviously, is to produce a recollection on Iran (push it to the harsh negotiations), China, and Russia (in order to understand those associated hazards), and use it for its intended purpose, too, in principle, can not be excluded yet.
Brand new Maginot Line
The Syrians and their allies of Hezbollah, in turn, are prepared to support Iran in case of an attack. They understand that Jerusalem will have to use ground forces, because only they are able to fight with the launching of missiles "Scud" and other projectiles that are sure to follow from Lebanon in response to the actions of Israel. So Makarov, as reported to the Israeli intelligence, they are rapidly building a fortified wall, a kind of Maginot strip that stretches from Rashayya al-Wadi in the west along the mountains to the town of Aita al-Foukhar. Task of construction of this 22-km-long wall along the Lebanese-Syrian border is, so to stop the advance of Israeli tanks in the Syrian capital of southern Lebanon.
This inhabited by Druze and Christians war zone will be under the control of Hezbollah and Syria. Project and open a discussion with the favorite Druze Walid Jumblatt, who confirmed his loyalty to Syria in its own nedavneshney trip to Damascus. The wall also will allow Syria to conceal the transfer of ownership of the other instruments. With all of this to keep secret the fact of the erection of the wall Hezbollah could not: for its construction requires an unlimited amount of cement, which drive up the endless chain of trucks from Syria. In addition, in Damascus at the moment felt a severe shortage of building materials.
Everything will be resolved in the coming weeks.