To ensure that the military would support him Mubarak it became nasty surprise. Although he himself comes from a military environment in the past led the Egyptian Air Force and flown to personally assaulted the Israeli troops and also before the troops on the streets of the cities he generously gave them money. But still, it did not add fighters determined to shoot their own people, protesting against poverty and corruption.
Until the situation is exacerbated by the current president Mubarak's also the fact that against it merged all the available opposition in the country — the Democrats, the Left, and all kinds of Islamists.
The originator of creation such a situation, in fact he is Mubarak which terrified of competition with the moderate Islamists simply would not let them in 2010 parliamentary elections. Prior to these elections, representatives of the "Muslim Brotherhood" are in the shared responsibility of the parliament with the ruling party, and managed to smooth out the contradictions.
At the moment, the Islamists have nowhere to retreat. Given that almost half (40%) of the population of Egypt is far below the poverty line (monthly income of this population is the least $ 50), opposition to support 10's of millions of Egyptians.
Mubarak received another blow from the west. Many favorites western states actually supported the opposition, to make a statement of excessive use of force and the instructions of Mubarak on the need for democratic reform in the country.
Attempt Mubarak change the cabinet has been hailed the opposition on the one hand, as a weakness, but on the other hand, as a strategic ruse by which he wanted the people to let off steam and stay in power at least until the next election, scheduled for the subsequent fall. While there is not any hesitation that even if Mubarak will remain in power, the operation has failed heir.
Well, Mubarak's age plays against him, he was 82 years old, and even under the best scenario, edit it remained quite awhile. And to the tune of his non-authoritative politically son Gamal does not want anyone to dance.
Meanwhile, there is a real danger that with Palen Mubarak regime in the country will start chaos. A lot of contradictory opposition forces have merged at this time under the slogan "Dump Mubarak, but we'll see. " And there will come out, in fact irreconcilable differences between the united currently forces between Muslims and Christians, between Islamists and liberals, and finally between the Islamists themselves moderate and constructive. Also, do not forget about the military, who have their own ambitions for the power.
The fall of the Mubarak regime could trigger a chain reaction that would lead to the collapse of the same power in the other countries of the region, first in line is Yemen, further follow Jordan, Syria, Algeria.
And the most important change of government in Egypt will change the balance of power in the region dramatically. It is logical that at the moment Israel is the only country providing support for the Mubarak regime. After all, it was he who acted as a guarantor of friendly neutrality between Egypt and Israel. Without Egypt, which holds considerable human resources in the Arab world did not start, no Arab-Israeli war. In what direction will change the foreign policy orientation of the country at the moment it is not clear, and swap it can be very harsh.
In the current demographic situation in Egypt, the only solution seems OUTDOOR expansion. According to unofficial data of Egypt's population of 90 million people and is growing every year to two million. Also, the situation may worsen traditional anti-Israel stance, "the Muslim Brotherhood", which, after today's events will certainly strengthen its influence in the country.
In this scenario, a single opposition force Egypt's tearing at the moment to the authorities fail to overcome poverty is progressing. This guarantees instability of state power for a sufficiently long term.
In the course taking place at the moment in Egypt are more events looming inevitable that power All the same take over the design Islamists whose ideas are finding a lot of support in the ranks of the Egyptian youth. But of course, that the establishment of Sharia law will not change the current disastrous economic situation in the country.
It turns out that there is one way out: the war. Israel is the common enemy of the Arab world, because he was already at the moment to prepare for the worst.