On a wave of different rumors about who in the future war between Israel and Iran will overcome (or lose), and others have renewed rumors of the imminent and inevitable end of Israel.
Department of Near East Intelligence Service conducted a special survey from which the data were released. In this study, said, that the Government of Israel end its existence as early as 2025.
Analyst Hussein al-Burbury from an American newspaper «Watan», studied data from a study concludes, that the process of ending the Israelites from their historical homeland and return to former places of residence — is irreversible. He writes, referring to a document that "over half a million fallashey and other African Jews want to go back to the Black Continent in the coming 10 years. Ready for re-emigration of over a million Russians and 10's of thousands of Europeans. "
In the middle of the full circumstances of re-emigration of the Jews in that study referred to as: the growth of the nationalist tide in countries adjacent to Israel; surge of Islamism in Egypt craving inhabitants of Israel to their native places. Indicators that the Jews in Israel is not good for the creators of the document are the following causes: miserable performance of population growth, "not going to any comparison with the population explosion in the Palestinian territories"; half a million Israelis live with South American passports, not enough to lure someone has an idea " the purity of the Jewish race, which was erected and Israel, "because many of the Jews" prefer to go to the country's multi-confessional, with a mixed composition of the population of the state. "
As proof of his own thoughts Hussein al-Burbury quotes Arnold Toynbee, almost half a century ago wrote back: "Despite the victory, Israel will not last long. Society abnormal, alien … Tiny government on foreign lands, to reject it. Like countless peoples that live around it. "
In general, says the journalist, "no Arab land, or the Middle East is not rejected Israel: they themselves rejected, prompting the Arab region and the world beyond join together today or tomorrow to push the Jewish state."
"And if it will disappear from the face of the earth — adds analyst — that the Arab world is not guilty of this, and the government of Israel itself."
II. Israel will kill the "Arab Spring"
A year earlier, Comrade al-Burbury with a forecast of the imminent end of Israel made a recognizable Jewish historian Benny Morris. Unlike al-Berber, he believes Israel will fall by the Islamic invasion — both external and internal. The exact date of the fall of the country's historian, unlike attentive to details of U.S. intelligence that was not called.
B. Morris — not the usual alarmist, with which today densely populated multicultural Web. This man gathered an armful of all current danger to Israel's existence, and to collect, compile. And he did it in September 2011, when the top of the Israeli government is not going to go to war against Iran (which, except for a particular Arab threat to mean more and Persian).
Israel, according to the views of Morris, is attacked on every side, the Palestinian Authority is ready to announce his government, the Arab-Muslim countries do not cease to threaten the Jewish country, in Israel, more than ever, strong internal mass protests.
"For more than 50 years ago, Israeli favorites, led by David Ben-Gurion, believed and hoped would that make social-democratic government with all the trappings of equality — notes Comrade Morris. — But Israel is not the same. Came the deepest inner existential crisis. Part of its origins — in the changing nature of the country, which has become more right, more rigid, even the least liberal, yet the least egalitarian. Many moderate Israelis fear that country moves to collapse. Indeed, the ruling class, including Benjamin Netanyahu and his predecessors Ehud Olmert and Ehud Barak, live in luxury, and creates the feeling that they are detached from reality. " With all of this shows a historian, one fifth of Israelis live below the poverty line, and the rate of income differentiation in Israel — one of the worst in the middle of the OECD. Vpribavok Morris writes about the "brain drain." (As we see, it is not peculiar only to the Russian Federation).
Another discrepancy continues historian — Israel's Arab minority. It shows all the active commitment to Islam and louder ask that Israel was to be a Jewish state and granted more rights, and even the autonomy of the Arabs.
Israeli democracy, according to B. Morris, is currently in a deep decline: it is like a democracy for the people of Israel, but as soon as it is about 2.5 million Arabs in the half-occupied West Bank and 1.5 million Arabs in Gaza living in criteria poluosady, Israel is no longer the same democracy.
And there is still the threat of the "Arab Spring." According to the views of the historian, the "spring" — not a herald of democratic change. Israelis against her pessimistic. After Islamist signals coming from Ankara and out on the first plan in Cairo, says Morris, "comprise the core of Zionism, usually accompanied by anti-Semitic overtones."
Bureaucratic means to combat economic neuvvyazkami country who invents Netanyahu, according to the historian, and will drown in a flood of Palestinian silly activity and anti-Zionism, which arise in the wake of the declaration of a Palestinian country, giving rise then echoes throughout the Arab-Muslim world.
Curiously, Ehud Barak, in the same 2011 foreshadowed Israel "political tsunami". "And so it came," — says Morris.
III. The road to the two disasters: the political and economic
In the middle of domestic circumstances speedy end Israeli analysts and journalists secrete both political and economic.
Jews does not consider Israeli government epitome of democracy, including the geopolitical field, "Rules of the game between Israel and the rest of the world has changed. Now the war is over knowledge, and we will lose. If Gunter Grass, the German Nobel Prize in Literature, first published in April poem, in which was critical of Israel longed to visit Israel, the government really would not let him into the country? According to Interior Minister Eli Yishai, yes. Yishai announced Grass person non grata. Neuzh that person is prohibited to express a negative opinion about us? Neuzh that we live in a dictatorship? Maybe it's time to start spalivat books? "
Persistent rumors that Prime Minister Netanyahu, in collaboration with Ehud Barak's dictatorial fully advance and implements program from a military operation against Iran closely resemble the truth. Accusing Ahmadinejad, Netanyahu is based on an imaginary inevitability of nuclear war against the ayatollahs, to prepare for the autumn of Israel bombing Iran to polls Israeli propaganda and other information, is very akin to that which is permitted to George Bush Jr. to launch the flywheel of the war in Iraq.
In the Jewish press write, Netanyahu fears that he, and therefore scares others, but seem to rank policy is not just a scare. No, he is not afr
aid: he priuchivaet citizens to the idea of war with Iran. By the losses to the blood, howling sirens in the bombings, pain and death. Netanyahu and his statements simultaneously propagated by Israeli, American, European, Iranian and Arab press — is a powerful source of propaganda. A plus Netanyahu, Ehud Barak (Israeli defense minister, Netanyahu agree with the policy, in contrast to many other military and non-military high officials) — two massive source of propaganda.
But for a major war Israel, according to the Jewish press, poorly prepared.
On the home front defense minister post sent as Ambassador to China Matan Vilnai. It changed Abraham Dichter, former managing Israeli security "Shin Bet". Vilnai translated, most likely due to disapproval of his policy of Netanyahu and Barak. Indeed, in an interview with "Reuters", he refused to answer the question about the need to strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. "You should not have to involve in this debate," — said he is still saying that Israel should certainly be considered with the views of the United States — "the best friend of our country."
Another prerequisite for the resignation of the big bureaucrat can be considered and the lack of preparedness of the home front to the war"Recent announcements of anxiety with the" rear "of the fronts, led to the conclusion that the rear is not ready for war." In 40% of the population no masks. In the shelters — Failure of standards, lack of necessary funds. "Now the citizens are a bit more active than in previous months," — reads Eitan Arkobi, project manager distributing protective clothing through the Post Office in Israel. According to him, already distributed 4.24 million sets of chemical protection, there are still about 0.5 million, which will be distributed prior to March 2013. "After this, will have to wait until the Defense budget will not allow for another three million." In other words, if Israel will undergo right at the moment missile attack, 40% of the population will not masks. Next, a third of the Israelites out of the apartment a protected location or a public shelter to shelter from rocket attacks. Many shelters available to people do not meet standards of protection. According to a survey conducted for the newspaper "Maariv", revealed that 56% of Israelis believe that the rear is not ready for possible war.
But Ahmadinejad ready for it, which in the case of Israeli attack will have nothing to lose. Speaking at prazdnichkom Ramadan, Iranian President said"He who loves freedom and justice must strive for the destruction of the Zionist regime in order to pave the way for justice and freedom."
To the opponents of military action against Iran in Israel now are ranked: Chief of Staff Benny Gantz, the Air Force commander Amir Eshel, director of external intelligence "Mossad" Tamir Pardo, the head of military intelligence Aviv Kochavi AMAN and even President Shimon Peres.
By "internal opposition" in the country and is Meir Dagan, in the last chapter, "Mossad." He warns: military scenario applied to Iran can be very expensive to do Israel and developed into a full-scale regional war, the outcome of which — unpredictable. Undertaking a "military flogging" of Iran, he directly referred to "Stupidest idea in the middle of all the other in this context."
The last manager of the General Security Israel Shabak Yuval Diskin also opposes military action. He has openly stated his distrust of Benjamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak.
Yet Netanyahu and Barak (who is the post of Minister of War had to change seats Minister of Agriculture, Minister of Education, Minister of Tourism and Minister of Foreign Affairs, the Minister of Home Affairs and the Prime Minister — that's what mnogoodarenny manager) to bend the line, losing the remnants of popularity among the population .
Vpribavok to the awkward politics in the Jewish state, not all is well with the economy, giving observers and analysts an additional reason to talk about "the end."
The prices of the main food According to the Ministry of Agriculture in Israel, the recent increase significantly. Until the end of 2012 due to the rise in price of pet food (due to drought in the U.S.), the price of milk, eggs, poultry meat will rise by 6-17%. It immediately affect the feed industry sector in Israel: the prices of raw materials for its companies may jump by 40 or even 50%. The consequence will be an immediate increase in milk prices by 10-13%, and poultry — by 10-14%, and egg — by 14-17%.
Autumn increase the price of gasoline — Overstep the mark of eight shekels per liter. Growth rates in the middle of the circumstances referred to in those and other growth by 1 percentage point VAT in Israel (since September 2012).
Rise fall also vegetables (tomatoes, cucumbers, zucchini). The government raised the price of bread. Rose in July, beer and cigarettes.
Very high in Israel fraction of the shadow economy:
"By its very own nature, the shadow economy can not brag official data. Yet, on the basis of data published ratings. According to the survey, hosted the Global Bank in 2010, the size of the shadow economy in Israel is 23% of GDP, 190 billion. shekels. Even more than in countries such as Germany (17%), England (13%), Japan (12%) and the USA (9%). Israel is not in a good position compared to western countries: it is a 23 place out of 31 countries of the OECD. European countries are experiencing at the present time the economic crisis, as Greece and Italy, took place after Israel in this list.
And the fraction of the shadow economy in GDP in Israel is growing faster than in other countries of OECD. It has grown by 8.5% in the decade from 1997 to 2007, compared with an increase of 6% on average in other countries. Part of the shadow economy, while not the most significant, is associated with criminal activity in areas such as drugs, prostitution and gambling, but the best part — a consequence of the behavior of law-abiding citizens. "
The Israeli authorities are struggling with bad assets increased from September tax rates — income tax and VAT — and toughens measures against defaulters. Tax Office has announced the recruitment of 700 new employees, including students, who will have to spend the evening with the tax office. These night workers called to strengthen the control over the "black capital" and improve tax collection.
Obviously, such measures popularity of the Netanyahu government is not added.
Dean Lisnyanskaya, Israeli, an expert in Arabic and an expert on Islamic extremism, said that U.S. President Barack Obama has made in Israel "scapegoat".
South American money according Lisnyanskaya, Islamists are now. Did Obama do not know who the "Muslim Brotherhood"? .. Lisnyanskaya recalls that during the visit of the South American president in Cairo, during his speech, the representatives of "Brothers" were deliberately planted in the front row. In this method, U.S. President encouraged the opposition, speaking a few years back against Mubarak. Obama's policy is aimed at reconciliation America and Islam after the events of 2001 and the war Bush. On the other hand, Lisnyanskaya, Obama may well end the war with Islam design that will forget about the other
interests of the United States.
In this case, Israel would "bat card" for the white houses. "We are scapegoats for Barack Obama — says Dean Lisnyanskaya. — It has long been understood in political terms. The problem is that for a reconciliation with Islam, Barack Obama specifically refers to constructive Islamists. And they who first set against "American imperialism." For America, the Middle East, it is not necessarily the way to the pit. But that of course the President of the United States is not particularly far-sighted. Yes, there may be a reconciliation of America with Islam, but it will change the entire balance in the Middle East. In fact, it has already changed the balance: the so-called "Arab Spring" — the result of Obama's policies in the region. What he headed for? Teran fall, but they were replaced by democratic means Islamists come. "
The idea Lisnyanskaya just continue: Islamists come to power, and come to Israel.
In general, not all bad for Israel, "best friend" (in the words of Matan Vilnai) suddenly seemed to give an answer to Dina Lisnyanskaya. August 14, Barack Obama, According to Channel 10 Israel TV, on behalf of America promised to storm Iran in June 2013 — unless Tehran thrust at that time did not end its nuclear program from.
— Especially for topwar.ru