Jordan myagenkaya Arab Spring

In late September, Lord of Jordan Abdullah II ordered to begin negotiations with the movement "Muslim Brotherhood" hoping to prevent the Islamists planned boycott of the parliamentary elections. To demonstrate the impact of its own forces and "Brothers" promised in October to bring 50,000 people to the streets.

As a mediator, negotiator for "Brothers" was sent to the last head of the royal court Jawad Anani, who explained to the press that "the leaders of the movement to achieve the changes inside the parliament, not outside." It seems thin oriental language. In fact Anani went to the "brothers" simply in order to dissuade them to boycott the parliamentary elections. Lord of Abdullah, more than one and a half years of successfully finding a language with local "democrats", still hopes to save the country from the "spring revolution."

Point is that "Muslim Brotherhood" have put the King with a choice: or reincarnate the kingdom into a constitutional monarchy, or perhaps as early as October Abdullah II will face the triumphal march of the "Arab Spring" in the country, and the abdication of the ultimatum. And today's Islamism, which ignited in the past year, a lot of "springs" hundred days ago reversed won elections in Egypt and is not going to give up in Syria (where the anti-Assad's army is waging war jihadist scum from all over the world) words in the wind throws.

By the way, the "Arab Spring" and the fear is in Saudi Arabia, where the old age of the monarch and the next heirs only bring "democratic change". In addition, the peak of the oil kingdoms, as they say, was to think that as long as it is supported by the front entrance, "protests" in Syria, its other enemies gathered at the back door. And now, if the "Muslim Brotherhood" will take power in Amman, followed by their objective would be to Riyadh. (In general, the "Arab Spring" with the Saudis in a press predict snake half a year, if not more. Only question about it: it will ruin the king and squabble numerous heirs, or for power yavyatsya Islamic radicals have any reason one: the world and Sharia the extermination of the entire western).

Coup in Jordan and Israel fear. For the Jewish country coming to power of "Brothers" in Amman would mean a contraction Islamist loops around the edges, "odemokrachennye" Egypt and Libya on the south-west and a candidate for the adoption of the "spring" Syria — in the north-east. And there is still unpredictable display of activity on the part of the Palestinians in Jordan, which make it 60% of the population …

The king of Jordan has multiple outputs from a difficult situation. It can, for example, agree to take yes for constitutional monarchy and reform the electoral system and insist on what "Muslim Brotherhood", counting, apparently, to come to power in the country in the same way he came to power in Egypt, Mursi M. .

There is also a military way — similar to the one that chose Bashar al-Assad. But before that, lord of the Islamists made concessions, and it is unlikely he will choose the path of fierce resistance. Myagenko strategist King scares even probable boycott of parliamentary elections, not to mention the civilian war.

In the end, the ruler Abdullah II may play for time by various mediators of negotiators — which he does.

One of the compromises proposed by King Abdullah, "Brothers," was that the ruler dissolved the parliament and called new elections rules. Political parties from now on will be able to not distribute 17 seats in the House of Representatives, and 27 (the lower house of parliament, 120 deputies, while others are elected by district, there is a quota for women, religious and ethnic minorities).

But, "the Muslim Brotherhood", reviving after the success of their own "democratic" campaign across the Middle East and North Africa, today, do not accept compromises. And in general their patience is running out. Continuously saying they will not. Radicals have radicals, and the reform of the electoral system and the change of the municipal system then they need to come to power: a constitutional monarchy in the country will fill the prime minister. "Muslim Brotherhood" in Jordan, according to the Western press, expect to get two-thirds of the seats in parliament (it's at least), and, therefore, will be the premier of their protege.

The situation in Jordan are concerned not only the Arab countries surrounding Israel, and the bastion of world democracy — the United States. Some analysts believe, as if Obama is pursuing a policy of "spring" in the Middle East with the "Muslim Brotherhood" and that "Brothers" — force loyal to him, while others think that Washington is seriously disturbed by their actions, and still others admit that the scenario is realized Jordanian America consciously and deliberately — in order to destroy another measured mode, and then control the formation of new political through artificially caused chaos and devastation. With the third held view hard to accept: Egypt (Cairo after massive protests because of the controversial film "Innocence of Muslims"), America has already wiped out from their own allies. Yet, the director of the Center for Geopolitical Expertise, Deputy Managing Center of limited research in the sociological faculty of Moscow State University Valery Korovin says:

"… What is happening at the moment in Jordan, there is also a process of social buildup to reformat today's monarchy in the first mode of the parliamentary monarchy, and the subsequent step will be the creation of a parliamentary republic on the model of the country. And, accordingly, further, when the process is started, using networked information technology will be easy to initiate elections and evenly to produce social transformation of society even in the framework of the democratic model in a more liberal nature of the project on its own. In other words, is a question of social modernization of society. And when it will be made, then the government can be considered democratic, in other words, controlled by the U.S. and Western strategists. Accordingly, it is no longer a threat to U.S. interests and will be included in a model of liberal foreign policy — a kind of buffer zone that will allow the United States in the coming squeeze is on the north of the country, first — in Russia. "

In other words, the analyst believes that because Jordan should worry more and Russia.

And so long as the essence of the case, the Islamists are supported, like it or not, the West began to parallel media war against Syria and Iran. TV channel «Al-Arabiya», referring to the "brain files", performed stuffing information (supposedly) saying support for Bashar al-Assad and his allies (read — Ahmadinejad) internal efforts to destabilize the situation in Jordan. As it is they're destabilizing? And they manipulate the peaceful demonstrations, turning them into military actions (read: riots). In other words, in the event of massive clashes in Amman for the media and the "international community" is prepared and served in a sauce of their "culprit." Bashar al-Assad's just the economic decline in the euro zone is not charged, and Ahmadinejad — spying on the North Pole …

Expert on the Middle East, an analyst «International Christian Concern» Aidan Clay believes that "Muslim Brotherhood" — one of the most serious threats to the stability of Jordan. In his view, the decision of the king to dissolve parliament,
made as a compromise gesture was politically risky. "Muslim Brotherhood" did not take this half-hearted gesture. In general, as the expert thinks, the master will offer further compromises. Abdullah — an experienced politician. Clay observes:

"The problem, though, is that after the acquisition of concessions" Muslim Brotherhood "are likely to become even more emboldened and will require even more … And, the master will not be able to solve this problem by conducting elections in accordance with the laws of the country in which there is no state consensus. "

Because elections can only deepen the emerging crisis. Clay sees output in the major political reforms. At the same time the analyst has to eradicate corruption in the kingdom, so as protests are related not only to the religious ideology of "Brothers."

Human rights activist Martin Jansen from Holland on the subject reads:

"As in other Arab countries, the monarchy in Jordan makes people discontent. "Muslim Brotherhood" consume him, to arrange a demonstration against the government. "

E. Clay believes that the majority of Jordanians still support their own king. But here is the kingdom's economy is going through the best of times:

"… It is also true that every Jordanian citizen is constantly faced with the widespread corruption in the government … In addition, the economy is rapidly shrinking, unemployment is rising, and there is a large gap between the rich and the poor. "The Muslim Brotherhood," directed attention to these common problems, promising the people of "democratic reforms" sounding in unison views of virtually all Jordanians — without distinction, are those sympathetic to the ideas of "Brothers" or not. "

Clay believes that the motto of all the upheavals that have taken place within the framework of the "Arab Spring" — just the democratic cry. The introduction of the "brothers" of democratic slogans in Jordan could tip the scales in their favor: it specifically "Brothers" — one of the main groups in the country, calling for political reforms in the spirit of democracy. Many Jordanians can then vote for them, zapamyatyvaya though is where they'll have to agree to their religious ideology.

Clay also shows that people do not fully understand the economic situation in their countries:

"… A lot of people here do not understand … that Jordan is dependent on international aid. Without it, their economy will fall, especially taking into account nedavneshny influx of Syrian refugees, whose kingdom should now contain. "

Next E. Clay says that the Egyptian inconstancy, which occurred at Mursi, where "Brothers" came to power, could be repeated in Jordan. Then a strong alliance with the West, which was able to build a ruler Abdullah, will be put at risk.

In general, as long as the wisest compromise Abdullah yielding results. If Islamists promised to lead the protests 50,000 people, then their is not work. It is estimated that in the last demonstration (Friday last week), there were from 7,000 to 15,000 protesters. And the lord of the country enjoys respect.

By the way, here's a good example of how the information is supplied. According to estimates, "the Muslim Brotherhood", the protesters were more than 30,000, witnesses and journalists believe that the weight does not exceed 15,000 people, and the Jordanian security forces and calculated exactly 6,000 participants.

In addition to the economic impermanence, the arrival of refugees from Syria (the number exceeded 180,000 people), the ministerial reshuffle (in days of the monarchy was replaced by a prime minister, is the fifth in two years), unemployment (among young people have gained 30%), destabilizing the notes in the situation in Jordan enters and the presence there of some 150 hidden professionals who arrived not long ago from the United States. Their goal is to help as if Jordan with the flow of Syrian refugees, but in fact, these "experts" on the views of some U.S. analysts are oriented to Jordan for the upcoming fuel conflict in the region.

By January of the next year are scheduled parliamentary elections — only it allows you to delay the march of the "Arab Spring", which is the master skillfully pushes for 22 months, although not, that in his country came out the same as what happened in Syria. He does not want any coup or civilian war.

People in Jordan care system of elections in which the voting results are distorted — so that is not enough who ranged in municipal fraud. In addition, behold the Jordanians, in their country of corruption octopus tentacles grasped the scope of the mining kingdom (deposits of potassium and phosphorus) are also expensive excavation sites in the capital. In all of this to all men do not believe that the "Arab Spring" will solve all the problems instantly. Not a lot of people believe that from the "spring" when new, far more serious problem.

"It would be wrong," — says George, a 32-year employee of the hotel. — Look at Libya, look at Syria: people die and we live here in a security. I am concerned corruption, I care about the price of dairy products — fuel, food, living expenses, — I think of a good salary, but I do not believe that the mess will solve the problem. "

Very complex in Jordan and the state question here is called "tribal".

The indigenous Bedouin tribes living east of the Jordan River, usually make up the bulk of the people supporting the monarchy. Specifically, from the Bedouin are the security forces and municipal services.

Meanwhile, the majority of the population in the country are referred to as the Palestinian-Jordanians who believe that the time has come rassredotachivaniya fairer votes in parliament — based on population, not tribal influence.

The situation is partly overlaps with the Syrian, with Shiites and Sunnis, with the ruling minority.

Amer Al-Sabayleh, blogger and political scientist from the Institute of Jordan, says that at the moment the United States is trying to persuade King Abdullah to reform, while Saudi Arabia is trying to impress upon the king otherwise.

"The Saudis know that if the Jordanian monarchy would be imposed on meaningful reform, it could open the way for the monarchies of the Persian Gulf and make them vulnerable."

This blogger advocates for democracy:

"… The third generation — young Jordanians who believe in cultural liberalism, democracy and freedom … At the moment, Jordan is controlled from the enclosed space, and no one knows why and how decisions are made … In the last month, the government took from the IMF loan of $ 2 billion. $, Which will have to give my grandson since his birth, but nobody felt the need to clarify the Jordanians, for what purpose the loan was taken. No matter what absolute monarchy must recognize that it can not remain forever the absolute … "

"Muslim Brotherhood" in Jordan's own "spring" campaign intensively use the internal Palestinian objections against the current electoral law, which helps to strengthen the power of Jordanians of tribal origin.

Ali Abu Sukkar, head of the
advisory board of the "Front for Islamic acts of Jordan» (IAF, the political wing of "The Brothers" and the main opposition party in Jordan), states that Mohammed Morsi, the first freely elected president of Egypt — that is one of the main figures of the brotherhood, and he was able to make a huge victory, despite strong opposition. And for Mursi followed by other countries:

"The success of the Egyptian government affects all Arab governments …"

Ali Abu Sukkar able to conduct business: on the wall near his desk in the office of the "Front" … hangs a portrait of King Abdullah. Sukkar said that his party — the loyal opposition. However, the government still can not take all the lusts of their demands — it's more than 20 months. Hurt "treats us like a minority," sad Sikar.

The demands of his organization following: constitutional and electoral reform and reorganization of the parliamentary consulate. The Prime Minister shall be elected by the Parliament, and members of the lower house should be independent of government and have the power to deal with corruption.

The parliamentary elections scheduled in Jordan on January 23, and the "Muslim Brotherhood", despite the efforts of King Abdullah meeting until canceled their boycott. "Brothers" is now very popular in the poor areas of Palestinian Jordan, refugee camps, and so in January in Amman can be expected surge of popular unrest. Curiously, for all this is that the opposition is really "loyal" to the king, in other words, not burning desire to overthrow him. Therefore, it may be that they are "suffering" King for more than 20 months. In a relatively measured Jordan, compared, for example, with the destroyed Libya or Egypt cranky, lord — to keep connecting link between native Jordanians and alien population. If the "Brothers" have learned something from others' mistakes, and they will suffer more — before the reforms, which they still will compel the king. At the municipal coup their country will face chaos and economic default.

"Brothers" will not rest until the time until they get the power — once their favorites take their lead from the Mursi.

It is no coincidence Minister of foreign Affairs of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, last week issued a statement that Gulf countries should cooperate to prevent komplota "Muslim Brotherhood", aimed at undermining the power of the entire region.

The statement needs at least clarified. For example, in Kuwait, "Brothers" under the name of "Islamic Constitutional Movement" — the most powerful party, they practically owns the majority of ministerial backpacks. Yes, the Kuwaiti government is fighting with the opposition within their own ranks, but never has it not master. How can assist UAE beat Kuwait with the "brothers" if he is not able to beat them at home?

But Saudi Arabia — frank antagonist of "The Brothers", and, of course, will support the UAE in their endeavor.

Bahrain and Oman, too, will stand on the same side as the United Arab Emirates — as there are "Brothers" are weak.

Qatar? But he supported the "Arab Spring" in Libya, Egypt and currently supports in Syria, including the means and instruments — and he will be silent, being tightly interwoven with "Brothers."

Consequently, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, supplying weapons and ammunition to Syria, then crawl.

Here we have the real Western phenomenon. If, as (presumably) wish to Western countries in the Gulf will be democratic reform, unrest, turmoil, not to mention the shooting and explosions, probably will not. But if in the end the reforms will come to power, "the Muslim Brotherhood" (as they come), these guys will immediately implement an anti-Western policy, which is unlikely to please the West, which has dissociated himself from Egypt as an ally of disgusting. If the U.S. and Europe — with their rhetoric of "cold war" — political planners believe that the Arab constructive force will battle for Russia, they need to be reminded that the flags so far in the Muslim world burned South American. Comrade Lavrov rights: Europeans do not exactly know about the Middle East, and their actions could destabilize the whole region, first — Lebanon and Jordan. This was our Minister of days on said at a dinner in Luxembourg than "disappointed" there various French and other Europeans who were waiting for him on the bullet in the Syrian issue.

In short, or common enemy force the merge Gulf countries (though not all), or the "Muslim Brotherhood" will take power in the region — A comfortable mottoes of the "Arab Spring", which would be a shame as it may sound, the other the king's subjects can not truly explain.

UAE, Saudis and other "zalivschiki 'own consolidation will be able to resist the invasion" vesnistov "from Jordan, currently supported by Western propagandists, thinking only about the need for political slogans of reform. As for the King of Jordan, he is in January or February of next year, will have to make a tough decision. "Compromise" premature elections there is unlikely to make a "loyal opposition" …

Surveyed and translated Oleg Chuvakin
— Especially for

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