Zbigniew Brzezinski speech delivered October 14, 2011 in Normandy at the time of award of Alexis de Tocqueville, is worthy. The award was presented by former French President Valery Giscard d'Estaing, who heads the jury.
1. Summary of the speech
At the outset, Brzezinski pays tribute to Alexis de Tocqueville, the French historian, sociologist and politician, whose presence in the U.S. in 1831-32gg. resulted in the writing's classic work "Democracy in America".  To understand America Tocqueville should know that even 175 years ago foresaw the potential threats to American society, according to Brzezinski. According to Joseph Stiglitz (Joseph Stiglitz), Nobel Laureate in Economics, Tocqueville was able to understand the main source of a peculiar genius of American society, which he called "self-interest properly understood» (self-interest properly understood). Early America and Americans take into account and take into account the self-interest of others, knowing that the respect for the common good is a precondition for personal well-being of everyone.
Modern America has changed and become a country of dramatic social contrasts. Despite democracy, American society is made up of super-rich minority, part of which are senior government officials and politicians, and an increasing majority of the poor. 'Today in America, the top 1% of the richest families own about 35% of the national wealth, while the bottom 90% — 25% ".
Additionally, the U.S., remaining superpower, struggling to cope with coming out of control global changes occurring both on the socio-economic and geopolitical arenas. "Social and economic world has become one the playing field on which all the more prevalent three dynamic reality: globalization," internetization "and deregulation." Financial sphere, becoming mostly speculative in nature and not associated with technological innovation or new forms of work, was able to instantly create wealth on an unprecedented scale. Investment, movement of labor in the international arena are dictated largely mercenary selfishness rather than national interests.
In the political arena, the concentration of global power in the hands of a few states with enormous economic and military capabilities, is accompanied by dispersion of political power. The West is in decline due to the lack of will to unity,growing power of the East, against the threat of selfish competition and potential conflicts between the major powers. "Neither the existing national government or regional settlement is not in a position to provide effective discipline, not to mention the security control of autonomous financial and economic universe formed by globalization," connectedness "and deregulation." There gaps between the political and socio-economic spheres on a global level.
The crisis of global power is complicated by the phenomenon of mass political awakening which Brzezinski emphasizes.  Communications capabilities, interrelatedness and interdependence of the global world, superimposed on the young and often unemployed population of the underdeveloped countries, easily mobilized and politically troubled students developeda prerequisite for the protests against the rich and privileged sections of humanity corrupt governments. "Indignation power and privileges unleashes populist passion, explosive potential is fraught with international large-scale riot."
America's ability to meet the challenges of changing world is difficult socio-political feature of American society, which Tocqueville warned prophetically. Talking about public ignorance, the result of which, in particular, is reducing the quality of political leadership. 'I do not know of any other country, which would be less independent thinking and real freedom of debate than in America"- Wrote Tocqueville. And more. 'Some unpleasant effects in the American national character are obvious. I think that the presence of a small number of prominent figures on the political scene is the result of ever-increasing despotism of the majority of American". Today the "despotism" and "ignorance" of American society led to the fact that it does not want to follow the path of short-term and equitable distribution of social sacrifices in exchange for long-term reconstruction (restoration) of wealth and national wealth.
Preparation and use of drugs policy needed America more difficult and narrow self-interest of parties, a phenomenon that Tocqueville in 1835 called "small parties". He wrote: "their character imbued selfishness, which clearly paints every action … their harsh language, and progress timid sverhostorozhen. Tools that they use despicable and pathetic …"To overcome the political stalemate is necessary breadth of vision and the restoration of national confidence. This, in turn, "requires a broad strategic vision and a sense of historic goals that can be achieved, in the end, after getting the principle of" self-interest properly understood "global recognition" — says Brzezinski.
Curbing financial speculation, which have both economic and social consequences,requires the immediate organization of a wide and tight political oversight — national and international. "An effective global political cooperation may be the result of a broad consensus, stimulated both the regional and, ultimately, global bases. For the U.S., Brzezinski believes that means ambitious attempt to freshen up, give new meaning to the concept of "Atlantic community", which in the short term should include the U.S. and the EU, and in the long run — Russia and Turkey. The fact that America and Europe need each other, share the same political values, obviously. However ambitious, ambitious strategic vision should not be limited by them. As soon forthcoming book Brzezinski argues that in the long term — over the next 2-3 decades — in the project "Atlantic community" can be turned on Russia.
The first part of "Democracy in America," Tocqueville wrote. 'Today, the two great nations of the earth can move forward to the same fate, destiny, from different starting points: the Russian and Anglo-Americans …". However, he points to the dramatic contrast that exists between them. Americans, on the basis of "freedom, as the main mode of action» (freedom as their main mode of action), the principle of self-interest and common sense, conquer and civilizing its vast continent, overcoming natural obstacles to building a strong American democracy. Russian with "servility» (slavish obedience), as the principal mode of action, may use the "sword of the warrior," under the command of "one man" for the conquest of civilization. And further, he warns that while "the starting point and the way different, but each is guided by some secret providential plan — to take some time in the future in their hands the fate of half the world."
It is already clear, says Brzezinski, the fate of Russia today is not how to control the "half the world." Russia today solves the problem of survival in the internal stagnation and depopulation, the increasing prevalence of the East and that confusing, but the rich West. And that is why Western policy towards Ukraine reassurance close relationship with the EU is a critical precursor to encourage Russia to as close as possible involvement in the West. 'This can not happen under Putin, but the internal preconditions for democratic evolution in Russia are growing and, in my view, ultimately outweigh. Russian so open to the world today than ever before".
The revival and expansion of the Atlantic community is connected with Turkey, says Brzezinski, and cites three key reasons why she should see their future in the West. Firstly, the internal democratization and expanding modernization made it clear that these processes are compatible with Islam. Second, the commitment to peaceful cooperation with Middle Eastern neighbors is consistent with the security interests of the West in the region. Third, Turkey is being more and more Western, secular yet Islamic country could undermine the position of Islamic extremism and enhance regional stability in Central Asia, thus serving not only their own interests, but also helping to Europe and Russia.
Oposredstvenno important for Europe may be a long-term American role in the formation of the new East, which must be built on attracting as China and Japan to do more global roles, and compassed the conflict between them. U.S. policy in the new East should not be focused solely on China and a unique partnership with Beijing. Its aim should be to restore friendly relations between Japan — democracy and the main partner and ally of America in the Pacific — and China, as well as easing the growing rivalry between China and India. Only through a balanced approach and avoidance of conflicts of Asian continental United States will be able to provide long-term stability in the region.
In the end, completing his speech Brzezinski, America's global role in the 21st century depends on the ability of American society to meet the expectations of Tocqueville. "Like him, I believe in the redemptive potential of the powerful American democracy and, in particular, the universal relevance of politically awakening world revolutionary concept of" self-interest properly understood early America. "
2. Brief analysis
Analysis of the ideas and attitudes expressed by Brzezinski, requires an understanding of the fact that he is one of those individuals and community, not just articulate and give voice to the geopolitical and geo-strategic trends, but their form. Brzezinski is not only and not so much the world informed of developments in the geopolitical arena, how much is involved in the formation of this arena. Scientific, political, informational and other activities Brzezinski this is the case, when a distinction between word and deed, event information and the reality that it is meant to show, it is more than difficult. In this situation, the arguments about the feasibility of the proposed vision of the world become invalid, because the ideas expressed by Brzezinski, to initiate processes and activities, which ultimately will lead to implement these ideas.
Such an assessment requires a responsible attitude to speak out ideas, regardless of how they look realizable today, now. The line between impossible and improbable in such texts is vague and difficult to distinguish. The above is particularly true given the turbulent nature of the times and the historical experience of the last few decades, when it became a political reality scenarios that were previously assessed as impossible. In such circumstances, it is necessary not to appeal to the experience and knowledge of the expert and the expert community, based on which line up the short term, but long-term strategic insight and trends.
Brzezinski said the addition to the two main events of the current era of globalization and the Network (connectedness) of another — the deregulation. West and previously found that the processes of globalization have acquired internal logic and strive to break out of hand when talking about the existence of the political forces in control of them, however. Today there is also a deregulation that is a partial loss of control over the social, economic and financial spheres of the Western political elites, when they needed a conscious effort not to lose already and political control over the processes. More acute creates high political activity and dynamism of the international environment — a "global political awakening."
Brzezinski acknowledges that formed sharp socio-economic disparity and gaps in Western society and the world at large. Concentration of socio-economic and financial power on a global scale is the weakening of the traditional political levers of regulation of public processes. In the language of Marxist political economy, which is becoming more and more popular among researchers trying to find a language and a methodology for describing the unfolding global crisis — there is an obvious discrepancy between the political superstructure and the socio-economic base of Western and global societies. And in the spirit of the Marxist analysis of the roots of the current mismatch of base and superstructure Brzezinski sees, including the greed and selfishness of the political class and the over-concentration of wealth in the hands of more than a limited number of actors. In the language of the theory of complex adaptive systemsThe West and the world political system came close enough to the edge of chaos and crisis instability, where small and unintended effects and fluctuations can lead to unpredictable results and stall system into chaos, which refers to the management and control in the traditional sense, however.
Recognizing the seriousness of the call Brzezinski offers a number of measures designed to take the global political system of the edge and appeal to the "mind and will" of the political elites. However, the proposed measures and the "medicine" so radical that it is necessary to talk not just about the transformation, butcreating a new — is a global political superstructure. In fact, Brzezinski offers super-rich ruling class to accept the need for a "revolution from above", the result of which should beformation of a new political elite. That it should generate a response to global challenges through deployment of new structures and control mechanisms and management, probably within mondialistkih projects well covered in the literature. Formation of a new superstructure are proposed on the basis of "consensus" national elites and regional power centers. And Brzezinski does not specifymethods to achieveThis consensus, whichneed not be voluntary or peaceful. But the only way to curb global in scope, scale and depth of the processes occurring in the socio-economic basis of society and the world to avoid revolutionary change of elites.
Understanding the seriousness of the challenge faced by the current political elite of the West does not mean that it will be able to voluntarily withdraw from the traditional view of the world. However, the design of the call in terms of life and death in the state, according to Brzezinski, shake the Western elite, and the formation of the response will lead to its recovery. Statement of identity, class, elite on the line between life and death is quite effective and well-tested method. "When a man knows that … he would be hanged concentrates the mind wonderfully," said Samuel Johnson (Samuel Johnson), poet, essayist, literary critic and editor of the 18th century, who made a great contribution to English literature.  Mortal threat to revive the West, let him join the elite with absolute dominance of the United States. To survive and remain dominant in the global world, the political elite of the West must also be global and integrated. Such a union is possible through the giving principle of "self-interest properly understood" global dimension, involving the ability of the new political elite to limit the narrow, selfish egotism of public interest and the common good. The question that should be attributed to a narrow and selfish egoism remains open. For example, whether recognized narrow "national egoism", whennational elites will be asked to give up part of their sovereigntyin the name of global interests and values.
For the post-Soviet Eurasia and interest geopolitical aspects of the proposed vision. Atlantic community transformation into a global force require the inclusion of a geopolitical and inevitable "reformatting" Russia and Turkey. Brzezinski offers Russia to become part of the new Atlantic community, the price of the final rejection of an independent geopolitical role, ambition and destiny, formed the Russian state and the Russian people during the last century. Turkey, being a part of the West, has an opportunity to expand its influence in the entire Greater Middle East and Central Asia, that is, including by tightening Russian sphere of influence. Thus, there is an attempt to repeat the already globally old game that Europe is on Russia and Turkey during the last century, when, after two non-European powers involvement in European policy to maintain balance and harmony in Europe. In the 21st century, the role of Western Europe takes on the Atlantic community, led by the U.S., and the balance, traditionally provided by Russia and Turkey, and possibly China and India.
Even a cursory glance at the Russian political field indicates the presence on it of politicians and political forces, which is the vision of the future of Russia is acceptable. Invited Mr. Brzezinski in 2011, "Global Policy Forum" in Yaroslavl and his speech on it can serve as evidence of the validity of this conclusion. Project "Eurasian Union", voiced by Putin, shows that in Russia there is also another vision for Russia and Eurasia. Judging by the surge of activities in the Western press, "Eurasian project" has found the West by surprise. However, after the first, extremely negative judgments and conclusions of Western elites now form an adequate response to this initiative. According to Brzezinski, the critical link survival of Russia as a geopolitical power center is the Ukraine, as well as the presence of the Russian leader, "one man", who will be able to lead and guide the restoration of the Russian geopolitical power. As such, the fear of the West today is Putin, whose presence, according to Brzezinski, makes it impossible to implement the first scenario of the future of Russia.
The question of whether the third possible scenario in which Russia and Turkey form an alliance requires thoughtful analysis. In any case, the union of Bolshevik Russia and Kemalist Turkey in the early 20th century was achieved by the assets of the Russian Empire and undermining the Russian interests in the south. Can the Russia of the 21st century to go back to "maneuver" has the assets of the USSR and the further contraction of the sphere of their interests — questions to be calm and balanced analysis, including those from the Armenian experts.
Mr. Brzezinski does not affect, and does not discuss the role of Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, the new view of the world, which also requires the assessment and interpretation. Perhaps the data centers of power do not fit into the project and, therefore, will have to give up their ambitions in the 21st century. Recent developments in the arc of instability, and in particular the Arab Spring show that the West has the possibility of sufficient strength and capacity to persuade the countries and peoples of the need to give up certain ambitions.
There is no doubt in all scenarios such as this interconnectedness and interdependence between Russia and the West. Both geopolitical center in crisis and need to be transformed, thus re-defining and shaping world history. However, if it was previously geopolitical confrontation, which excluded the final victory, in this case the 21st centuryit is a "last battle" — "life" or "death" and the "end of history" for a center — the West or Russia. This view, this interpretation, according to Brzezinski, is to facilitate the mobilization of Western elites, and will reach a consensus, as new challenges are dressed in old and traditional forms of the deadly confrontation civilized West and barbaric Russia.The new birth of the West must be through Russia and Russia's expense. What might be a response to Russia so clear spiritual, intellectual and political challenge — will soon.