By the probability of decay of the Eurozone: tactical and strategic interests

By the eventual disintegration of the euro area: the tactical and strategic interestsA person gets used to everything, but getting used to the great faster. Because the inhabitants of Western Europe has so long been accustomed to their own standard of living for the foreseeable future is unlikely to fail to wonder how that quality of life is provided and how stable.

Meanwhile, as I can tell, the Western European prosperity is largely produced approximately the same means as the North American — that is, massive life for others. However, in Europe it is still not as noticeable as in America, as in Europe, yet without the help of other people working more than in America, and even at the moment the main economic strike occurs in countries where a large part of welfare provides tourism. Tourism — this, of course, not all the life for others, but it's still more dependent on other people's welfare than for real production.

The only people who have "hangover" obvious "in a strange feast" — it was the Germans. In Germany, did not succumb to the temptation of destruction of its own production and display it over the limit. Germany respectively as of right now is pulling the economy of Western Europe for yourself. And oh so again it can be a very strong incentive to the collapse of European economic and monetary system, because the situation is "one works, seven with a spoon"'s someone who, as one who "with a plow," not like the look. Therefore currently more objectively interested in the disintegration of the European monetary system, the Germans: in them there are real products that can find for themselves demand, not only in Europe, and around the world — respectively for their single European currency is desirable but not mandatory.

A similar provision and France. France, of course, to a lesser extent depends on the self-produced and mostly from tourism than Ger-many, but again the same tourism in France is not only European, and worldwide, and of those products that makes France, needed not only in Europe, and around the world. Accordingly, for France decay European monetary system would also be nasty, but not devastating.

And whom this decay very painful touches — these are the countries of Southern Europe: Greece, Spain and Italy. They are, in general, have had their model of the structure of the economy (long enough for work). But within the framework of the single European economic system they are a significant part of the economic model simply destroyed because she does not fully docked with European norms, and did not return for the latest. A significant part of the cost of bringing them to the European public service standards was in fact not from their own earnings, and one of those tools that they have been given. And at the moment when the sources of grants dried up, they can no longer support an old social norms. Yes, and turn away from them is virtually impossible — it will result in great economic upheaval. Because that currently Greeks rally and shall be removed to extinguish their debts — it is only until such time as they hope for the preservation of the European monetary system, ie that they will be as before subsidizing other Western European countries. It will end this by saying that those who have their currently subsidized, just decide to abandon the single currency system. Then the strike will be, first, to Greece, as the flow of tourists to this country (and already greatly reduced due to the general economic problems of the world) will be reduced even for purely psychological reasons: to go to a country where they take your currency, much easier than where the currency will have to change. I do not presume to judge the importance of this factor, but today the Greek economic situation, when any penny counts, even such a small thing can be very thoroughly change the status of the country.

At the same time, I did not really wish the collapse of European economic and monetary system, as the larger single market, so it is with other things being equal the criteria stable and less sensitive to external shocks. But, unfortunately, strategic thinking, the ability for a couple of years ahead sacrifice some current benefits in order to win in the upcoming perhaps only in a more or less prosperous times, and currently "Not to fat — be alive." Because I do not rule out that the European financial system still fall apart, and later it will have a long and hard to recover.

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