The export version of Russian fighter fifth generation T-50/FGFA will be offered on the world market no earlier than 2018-2020 year, said deputy manager of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, Konstantin Makiyenko.
Russian Fighter fifth-generation T-50 made February 12, 2010 the second test flight. The first time he took to the air on January 29. T-50 will make the Komsomolsk-on-Amur has a series of test flights will then be relocated to the Zhukovsky airfield outside Moscow, in the Gromov Flight Research Institute, which will begin principal tests.
20 of the first in December 2010 during the visit to India of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed a contract price of 295 million dollars on the Indian version of the schematic design of a fighter.
How much will it cost?
"This means that any forecasts about the prospects of its exports to third countries outside of the Russian Federation and India, by definition, will be biased due to the inability to predict what the world at this time. But now we can be fully outline the main factors determining the export potential T-50/ FGFA ", — said Makienko.
Important of them will become, in his words, the price of Russian-Indian car, the dynamics of the creation of the Chinese project fighter fifth generation and development of unmanned aircraft systems. Also among these reasons are the basis for the defense market as a whole, as the level of conflicts and the state of the global economy.
Price will be determined fighter based on how many relatively small countries are willing to pay for it.
At the current time is assumed that in 2010 prices, the cost of the T-50 will reach 80-100 million dollars. In this case, fighter will be available to all current customers Russian Su-30 will eclipse of the price aspect of the South American F-35 and is competitive with respect to the hypothetical nature of the Chinese aircraft.
The volume of exports of the T-50 will also depend on the rate of creation of Chinese fighter fifth generation. Chinese machine may be, will be for the T-50 even more insecure rival than the South American F-35. Russian cannon priemuschestvenno sold to countries with independent external and defense policy, which typically prefer to purchase non-US technology, the source said.
As long as China does not have the harsh sentences combat aircraft, the markets of such countries Our homeland was or quasi-monopoly, or competed with Europeans. "It is clear that the emergence of China has set the fifth generation will lead to direct and concrete T-50 competition and the future Chinese aircraft," — said Makienko.
In the end, the market will be determined by the new technological trends, the development of which may devalue the importance of manned combat aircraft, he said. On this day, the main risk of this kind of progress is in the area of impact of unmanned aircraft systems, he added.
"It remains to impose that by 2020 this factor is not yet time to have a negative impact on the market manned fighters "- said Makienko.
More prospective buyers of T-50 countries are a priori owners languid Russian fighter Su-27/30 except China.
"The bad news is that when substitution Su-30 T-50 purchases will likely not be in a ratio of one to one, and in the best case in one and a half" — Pronunciation Makienko.
According to the views of a professional, the most promising markets represent the countries of South-East Asia, which for political reasons will not consider the possibility of purchasing in China. This is, first, Vietnam, and Malaysia and Indonesia. With the highest degree of conviction means an expert, loyalty Russian technology saves and Algeria.
"With respect to that of the general consumer Russian technology, like Libya, there is uncertainty associated with the uncertain prospects of the political orientation of the country in case of withdrawal of natural causes it no longer young favorite," — said Makienko.
Libyan state since 1969, manages Muammar Gaddafi.
Because of the high risk of regime change or collapse of the Bolivarian revolutionary project's current president, Hugo Chavez hard to predict after 2020 and Venezuelan orders. In the case of conservation in this country leftist government Our homeland will face a Chinese aircraft industry, which has already won a victory here in the sector of training aircraft, the agency predicts.
"In the end, we can hope that the natural market for Russian aircraft will be some post-Soviet republics and, at first, Kazakhstan and Belarus," — said the expert.
He expressed regret at the same time, these potential Russian markets such as Iran and Syria, are likely to come under the control of China.
"In any case, the Russian political control, to cancel the contract for the supply to Syria tactical complexes" Iskander-E ", and in Iran — S-300PMU-2, working intensively in favor of such specific scenario" — identified Makienko.
On the other hand, he said, after 10-20 years for Russia may open markets, which now seem to be indescribable. In one step away from buying the Su-30 at one point, was already in Thailand.
"In 20-30 years, maybe, will sleep now enormous economic potential of Myanmar" — presented expert.
For Argentina, the purchase of T-50 would be a good asymmetric response to Brazilian plans to purchase 36, and in the long term — 120 French Rafale.
"Right now, one thing is clear — the Russian-Indian alliance is sure to be one of the 3 global player in the fighter fifth generation. This means that our homeland ensured for itself as a world power in the aircraft industry throughout the first half of the XXI century" — said Makienko.