Why does the world, wrapped in a global economic crisis and shaken countless natural disasters, during which, it would seem, it is not to labor, continues to wage war and to arm themselves? Very soft-spoken answer to this question is still in the period of the Vietnam War, gave 15 large U.S. economists, writing almost follow: "It is inconceivable that the economy was any substitution of the war. There is no way to maintain control over employment creation and consumption, which would be comparable to it in effectiveness. War was and still is the most important condition for the stability of modern society. The military sector — the only sector of the global economy principle, where likely full of mandatory and government control. War and only it can solve the problem of reserves. "
More important than the world
At the time, U.S. President Ronald Reagan said, "There are things more important than peace." Notwithstanding the cynicism, this phrase can fully serve as an epigraph to the history of human civilization.
Over the past five and a half thousand years the world's population to manage to unleash a 14,500 wars. In other words, an average of two to three year war. They took about 3 billion 540 million of human lives, but people can not be the brakes. Throughout the history of the founders of conflict and sought to try to conceal their economic background, masking their various "egregious" motives and great slogans. But the fact they do not change. In the base unit at least some public and economic order is the property and, as practice shows the historical process, the property has always been a reasonably interesting not only the sole owner. "The art of war is the art of acquiring slaves" — says Aristotle (384-322. BCE. E.). Thomas Hobbes (1588-1679 gg.) Expanded the list of "People, motivated by greed, use violence to make the owners of other people, their land, their wives, kids and animals." With the increasing complexity of economic and economic life, the political economy of institutions, techniques and technologies of issues of this problem relentlessly expanded. Remained constant and the trend remains. "What would be outside the" noble "goal is not proclaimed by the outbreak of war by some states against others in any public device wars were fought over and accessories, be it slaves, the territory of the colony, sources of raw materials, markets, spheres of influence," — states Doctor of Military Sciences, Dr. Alexander Korabel'nikov.
A victorious war gives the country-winner property defeated — the necessary external resources for their own economic development, provoking internal lift the productive forces and the consumer market, helping to remove an opponent (opponents), opens up new commercial and economic horizons. Thanks to all this, it brings the government to cancel the next level, providing it is not only more profitable and sustainable position in the domestic and external policies, and providing certain tools dominance in the regional or global scale. But such acquisition is akin to playing roulette — the more you win, the more hunting. With all this, as the gambling tables, luck is variable and the replacement of one other winners are constantly coming.
Financial background of similar metamorphosis enough relief seen on the example of 2-world wars and the next world order, the global structure of which is on the threshold of new transformations.
Germany: from business expansion to power methods
To begin with, the future founder of and the driving force of both the first and second World War — Germany — met its success in almost all the triumphant (first from the economic point of view) and the union of the following enhanced by the Austro-Prussian (1866 g) and the Franco-Prussian (1870-1871 gg.) wars.
So, for example, at the Frankfurt Peace Treaty, the former French Empire ceded to Germany so necessary to her Alsace-Lorraine, which was concentrated in 20% of all mining supplies France (1 million 597 thousand inhabitants, or 4.3% of its population) . 5 billion francs indemnity become an important tool for the young German economy, which after the creation of a centralized state began to gain an unusually highest speed. The consolidation of iron ore Alsace and Lorraine, the Rhineland coal allowed to make a strong fuel and metallurgical base of German industry, and the French began billion of its basic source of investment. Only in the years 1871-1873 was created 328 new joint-stock companies with a total capital of over 2.7 billion marks. It should be added that the German industry 70s of the XIX century appeared on the new techniques and technologies since. German engineering came in the number of world leaders. This allowed the beginning of XX century significantly increment competitiveness of German products (the volume of German external trade in the period from 1870 to 1913 year increased approximately three times the price of finished products was higher than 70% of German exports, the German electrical products captured 50% of the world market), increase wages and make better the actual level of the population.
At the end of XIX century, Germany was ahead of industrial production France, but from the beginning of the XX century was left behind and the United Kingdom. The sharp rise in industrial production in Germany is seriously undermined the position of the 'workshop of the world "(that would still not China, and England). The situation is aggravated by Germany construction tremendous civilian and military fleet. With the support of the country's naikrupneyshie German shipping companies are entering the first in the world in total tonnage of vessels of over five thousand tons. It was a direct challenge to the "mistress of the seas" (all the same in England). It was no longer about the basics of British economic and political power.
Young German superpower, in turn, require more raw materials and food, in which she felt an acute need. So, despite all efforts, the price of imports in Germany due to the import of raw materials and food before the First World War, the export price exceeded by more than 600 million marks. Relatively small German colonies could not cover the lack of raw materials. These structural economic difficulties and contradictions, along with other factors, eventually led to an attempt to resolve them by force and global armed conflict.
World wars and the economic power of the United States
It resulted, above all else, was the emergence of new trends and new conflicts. In 1-x, the U.S. and Japan for the war increment its national heritage — by 40% and 25%. United States through the implementation of military and civilian products focused at about half of global supplies of gold. In addition, after the formal entry of the United States into the war they provided the Allies (Britain and France first) loans amounting to 8.8 billion dollars. The total amount of military debt, including loans and granted by the United States in 1919-1921,. Amounted to over 11 billion dollars. These processes laid the basis of growth in the South American economic and military influence in the world.
In-2, artificial interruption of German economic and scientific-technical development, territorial beheading of the country a
nd in particular the huge amount of reparations (269 billion gold marks — the equivalent of about 100 tons of gold, later this amount was reduced twice) in almost all contributed the global financial crisis of 1929-1933 (John Maynard Keynes, who stood at the origins of creation then the Global Bank and international monetary fund, then made the enemy foreclosure is so incredible amount, and warned that this could lead to a global recession) and the rise to power of the National Socialists. Recent tried to solve the problem outlined above, again, by the military. They began a large-scale militarization of the economy under the slogan revision of the Versailles contract that will reduce the time to resurrect and revive the economic system of the country (to increment the creation, eradicate unemployment, etc.). More financial and technological assistance in doing so, they have representatives of the U.S. business community.
At home, the representatives of these communities have been active members of the so-called Council on international relations. In the bowels of the semi-closed structure in the late 30's began work on the strategy of establishing U.S. hegemony in the postwar world. The fact that a new armed conflict is not far off, then there are many who hesitated.
January 28, 1941 the then U.S. Secretary of State Cordell Gull was the first official activity program from the United States as the world's favorite at the end of the war. Its central idea was the concept of "the great space» (Grand Area), which is explained as the post-war world, considered as the object of the South American government. The document contained a fairly detailed advice on how to deal with the Allies during the war and what the initial actions to do after graduation. The document was reported to Roosevelt and made it so deep impression that he joined the State Department's Office of Strategic Planning and informal group of advisers — the creators of programs from a single powerful agency planning future U.S. strategy.
The group continued to work and in 1944 issued a recommendation in which the main purpose of the post-war declared U.S. policy "to ensure a very large space for contemporary America."
The paper concludes with a meaningful setting, "at least the United States should vigorously participate in national affairs, as the major industrial countries and states possessing raw materials. We must proceed from the fact that if one or more of these states will not cooperate in the modern global economic system, then they should know that they will not develop rapidly. Evolving rapidly enough, they fail to provide the necessary equipment purchases from the United States and therefore will be in a state of depression … The nuances of political, military, security will be directly affected by this political dilemma. " The results of the implementation of the strategic plans of the known data.
After the war, the United States, focus at two-thirds of global gold supplies, dollar did, in fact, the world's sole reserve currency, have been made the principal instruments of debt enslavement and the following political and economic domination — the IMF and the World Bank, the NATO military bloc, South American military base settled in all parts of the world (at the moment they are in areas of 32 countries of the world).
Since that time, not a lot of that has changed.
To realize this, it was enough to hear a keynote speech on the budgetary and financial issues, which President Barack Obama said the inspiration April 13, 2011. Being a constitutional chief of the armed forces of the country, he said: "I will never agree on cuts that undermine our ability to protect our national interests or locality of America around the world."
In a number of official documents, these interests are specified. For example, in the "Strategy of national security in the United States subsequent century", placed in 1999, emphasized that economic reasons, namely the well-being of civilization, belong to the category of important fundamental interests, for the sake of the merits of which the government is prepared to use all available capacity, including the armed forces.
The same principles are repeated almost verbatim in the "Strategy of national security in an age of globalization, the United States', placed in December 2000, and the following other documents. Quite true, and openly stated that the war was to inventory and state policies aimed at achieving economic results and the solution of economic problems.
Libya: War for oil and water?
With all of this with the age of the U.S. and NATO countries favorites less his concern about finding yourself some occasions to cover the current economic and political economic goals unleashed their military conflicts.
For example, if the official version of the Panamanian unleashing war (to neutralize the risk of loss of U.S. control over the Panama Canal) in 1986 was called the affiliation of President General M. Noriega to the international drug mafia, and the Iraq — Saddam Hussein's possession of a weapon of mass defeat, the March 29, 2011 in his speech on the causes of the war in Libya, Obama has not strain yourself similar "nonsense." He simply says, "We have no evidence of mass killings of opposition from Gaddafi (in other Arab countries — the U.S. allies, they just are, but they have not been bombarded. — VB), but he could do it." "I did not expect evidence of massacres and mass graves." From this it follows that the cause of the war can serve virtually any not real, but a possible factor, no matter what the hypothetical threat. International law, so Makarov, more is converted to selectively recognized and freely interpreted vestige of interstate relations. The economy is more important of all!
Here's what that is, writes about Pepe Escobar (creator of Globalistan: How the Globalized World is Dissolving into Liquid War — «Globalistan: How the Globalized World is dissolved in the aqueous war», Obama does Globalistan — «Obama makes Globalistan" and some others) in his article entitled "There is no better business than war", located in the Hong Kong edition of the Asia Times: "Few people in the West know that Libya, Egypt and Nubia are on the aquifer, in other words, the ocean is very valuable fresh water. Because as it turns out that this is the visible, the invisible war is actually a war for the principle water. Control of the aquifer is priceless — that there is a need to "save" valuable natural resources from the "savages and barbarians."
Pepe Escobar continues: "This aquifer, located at depth and extending to 4000 km in the desert, was the basis for the" great man-made river ", which Gaddafi built for 25 billion dollars, without taking into debt one penny from the IMF and the Global Bank (what a bad example for the developing countries). Now, the river provides water to Tripoli, Benghazi and all the Libyan coast. Scientists estimate that the amount of this water is comparable to the volume of water in the Nile in 200 years.
Now correlate it with the so-referred to as the 3-sisters — French companies Veolia (formerly Vivendi), Suez Ondeo (formerly Generale des Eaux) and Saur, which are kept under control more than 40% of the global water market. " Escobar did not set the rhetorical question: whether there will be bombed as a result of bombing pipelines this "artificial river"? After all, such a scenario is completely possible if they bombed, France will get a very lucrative contracts for their "recovery." And at the same time it will be the last step in the privatization of all this water — still free.
Qatar, with an emphasis on the support of NATO's "bomb", the first Arab states to recognize the Libyan "rebels" as the only legitimate authority in the country, has already made it fo
r the next day, after a deal with them to sell oil.
The list of those who will receive the prize from this war, if it ends because her plan on the main results of the founders, these examples are not limited to far.
PLA and the economic interests of China
If all this is not a case of apparent redistribution of the Libyan market. The picture is even more extensive. Oil, gas, increasing production and thus cheaper raw materials for not able to get out of the crisis of the "major economies" system, weapons and other contracts, the water, the demonstration of an instructive lesson to all having "independent" line countries.
China, which claims in the future to press the "western owners of the world", so to speak, "understanding" refers to this turn of events — a large-scale rapid modernization of the People's Liberation Army (PLA).
"2.3 million Chinese fighter in recent years will not only more money, and modern, including offensive weapons third generation. In front of them will also be delivered promising tasks to achieve in different regions of the world to protect the interests second largest economy and a global trading power. The old concept of people's war and the people's militia, which provided for the protection of China's anger and securing its territory, internal waters and territorial waters, no longer meet modern requirements, "- writes in an article entitled" Global ambitions of the Chinese Army »Die Welt. And the Chinese really have something to defend.
According to the Heritage Foundation, at the end of 2010, the volume of China's industrial and monetary role in the Arab world amounted to about 37 billion dollars in Africa — 43, West Asia (including Iran) — 45, in East Asia — 36, in the Pacific region — 61 and in Europe — 34 billion dollars.
There are resources? Para bellum!
The problem of the shortcomings of resources and energy at first, trivial for a number of states have at the moment, at any moment could lead to another military conflict, and in the near future and just be a prerequisite beginning of the newest World War II.
These are the findings of a study British bank HSBC. Analyzing them, an economic expert and one of the leading British economic observers Jeremy Warner in his own column in The Daily Telegraph also notes that the country's industry which will choke on the shortcomings of resources will be required to separate them in store poor in ways that are still listed as unacceptable — for example and military leaders. In other words, is not no disguising screens and fig leaves formal occasions. As we litsezreem, preliminary work in this direction is already underway. Words of Krylov's fables "You povinet only in that hunt me to eat" are becoming more and more urgent.
And the situation is exacerbated by the resource still faster than many think.
Not long ago, a French senator from the party "Union for a Popular Movement," Jacques Blanc published a report in which they say the probable danger disruptions in supply of certain metals, minerals and vulnerability in this area of Europe. In recent years the list of necessary supplies expanded considerably today Europe's dependence on foreign suppliers spread to four 10-ka positions. Some of these materials have a dual strategic importance: they are needed for the electrical industry and are used in the military-industrial complex, others an indispensable in the production of electric and hybrid cars. "In most cases, they do not substitute" — says Blanc. He is convinced: "It is urgent to ensure uninterrupted supply of raw materials." How they can be guaranteed? Absolute guarantee can only be in one case — when you are in control of their own. Owners of resources and developing countries understand this. Hence the growth of military spending, which is immediately ahead of even the growth of national economies.
So, for example, according to SIPRI, more unusual is the significant increase in military expenditures of South America, most of which there are plenty of accumulated social and economic problems and there is no real military threat. Yet, in 2010, the countries of South America izderzhali on "defense" 63.3 billion dollars, an increase of three billion dollars more than a year ago. A huge part of the growth of the military has provided Brazil — 2.4 billion dollars. Military spending last increased in 2010 in comparison with 2009 by 9.3%.
Angola, Nigeria, Morocco and Algeria increment military spending by 19.2, 14.6, 6.6 and 5.7 percent respectively. 26% increased their waste on defense Mongolia. Rose appropriate expenses and other countries — owners of resources.
One such country is and our homeland. Our country was destined to throughout its history was sandwiched between a brutal West («Drang nach Osten» — «The onset of the East", according to NATO enlargement has not been canceled already in for at least 770 years old) and "wild wilderness." To survive in these criteria, between a rock and a hard place, it was just straining every nerve. Hence, the specific nature of the Russian economy — the mobilization, centralized, with large municipal sector and the military-industrial complex. This discrepancy in particular the burning now. If China — a "workshop of the world", that Russia is safe to call it a pantry. Here's what he wrote about the founder of the Club of Rome and the Economic Committee of the North Atlantic Institute (think tank of the NATO global economic dilemmas) Aurelio Peccei: "In September 1967, I had the opportunity to travel to Siberia. This allowed me to behold firsthand and get actual confirmation of the abundance in this region untouched supplies of clean water, forests, mineral ores and space — a vast sparsely populated lush lands … ".
The need to share those riches with which our country is on the views of a number of zabugornyh politicians, "experts" and other public people, "owns unfair," said more than once.
In his own speech nedavneshnem President Dmitry Medvedev highlighted: "We can not leave our country without adequate development of the armed forces and law enforcement agencies. We were simply torn to pieces. "
Yes, taking into account the global trends and our Russian prepyadstviya, the threat of being torn in pieces by really exists.
According to the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, the Russian industry is currently unable to produce certain standards of military products that satisfy the current requirements.
In 2009-2010, the total amount of state support defense companies amounted to about 220 billion rubles, but this is, unfortunately, not a good overall dramatically the situation has not improved in the industry.
Resolution of the XII Congress of the All-Russian Trade Union of Workers of the defense industry (7 April 2011) states as follows:
"The situation at the enterprises and trade unions remains difficult. Many businesses and organizations continue to operate the industry is very unstable, grows the number of loss-making companies. The number of loss-making companies by the end of 2010 in relation to 2006 and was grown: for ordinary weapons — 36.2%, ammunition and special chemicals — 52.0%. "
"Continues to drop the number of employees in the industry. During the reporting period, it decreased by 23.2%, making a total of more than 90 thousand people. Lasts outflow of professionals, there are staffing problems. Increases the average age of workers, which in some societies, particularly in the scientific organizations, exceeds 50 years. "
"The activities of the companies badly affected by the consequences of late submission of works and services in municipal defense order, a steady increase in the prices of fuel and energy reso
urces, materials and components. Loading of many industries is very low. "
Members of the Congress felt it necessary to appeal to the president of the country. In the paper, namely, reads: "Accepted government solutions do not allow radically change the situation, which may be exacerbated by the recent result in the irretrievable loss of many industries and the ability to release a batch production, the elimination of the 10-s of thousands of jobs and, as a consequence , bankruptcy of enterprises. "
At the current time in the defense industry consolidated register of organizations included 1,383 organizations located in 64 regions of Russian Federation. Many of these unique objects of the Russian economy, and their development is fundamentally not only from the standpoint of national security, and from the standpoint of technological breakthroughs in the following way. To adequately confront the challenges of the XXI century, and the first major global players attempt to solve their economic problems by war, Russia must exercise more care of their own supreme defensive unit.
The words of Alexander III that the Russian Federation has only two allies: its army and navy, and now sound as burning, as in centuries past.