How is Vladimir Putin towards economic integration with Belarus?

Society members: economist Leonid Zlotnikov from Minsk and Deputy Dean of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs of the State University — Higher School of Economics Andrew Suzdaltsev from Moscow.

Leonid Zlotnikov

Andrew Suzdaltsev

Valery Karbalevich

On whose favor a compromise on oil?

Valery Karbalevich"Putin said that because of the oil agreement Russia spends and Belarus gets $ 2.3 billion. Why Russia is back on subsidizing the Belarusian economy? "

Andrew Suzdaltsev"Belarus has so far confirmed their adherence to the Common Economic Space (CES), and in return gained access to Russian domestic oil prices.

In some ways, the situation is repeated late 1990 s, when the Union State of Belarus also received tax-free oil. But there is a difference. Now Belarus duties on oil products transfers to the Russian budget. Russia wins only strategically, but tactically.

I think that by 2012 Russia will return to the introduction of duties on oil.

Russia seeks to integrate the Belarusian economy, reform it. But I think that it will not work. After Lukashenko has extensive experience in non-compliance agreements. So I think that by 2012, Russia will return to duties on oil. "

Leonid Zlotnikov"First, Russia does not return to the subsidy, and just keeps them. And this year, Moscow 6.3 million tons of supplies to Belarus' domestic needs without fees. According to my calculations, Belarus next year will receive an additional comparison with the current year a total of about $ 300 million. This is due to the export of the oil produced in the territory of Belarus. "

Agreement will be executed?

Suzdaltsev"Russia loses from these agreements, $ 2.3 billion. The problem is that the Belarusian authorities to artificially inflate the Belarusian domestic oil products market that had a smaller volume of their exports, less transfer of money to the Russian budget. "

Zlotnikau"I believe that the Russian budget will lose next year about the same amount of money from the oil relations with Belarus, and that this year. Indeed, although the duty on petroleum products below half the duty on oil, but the fact is that one ton of Russian oil to our refineries produced only 650 kilograms of petroleum products. "

Karbalevich"Putin said that next year Russia will supply Belarus 21-22 million tons of crude oil. But signed and agreement with Venezuela, under which it will supply to Belarus 10 million tons of oil. A Belarusian refineries are processed during the year only 22 million tons of oil. That is, either Russia or Venesuela will have to reduce its supply volumes. If Russia will reduce its delivery, and the numbers of losses will be smaller.

Another question. Russia cancels oil duty because Belarus joins the EEA. But how real is this integration? Or is it a myth? "

Zlotnikau"In theory, the books, the worldwide experience of this form of economic integration is unknown."

Suzdaltsev"CES — a common market. Should be noted that the new organization will work with 2012, and the duty on oil for Belarus with Russia canceled the 2011 problem is whether Lukashenko signed an agreement to comply."

How important is the Russian market for Belarusian products?

Karbalevich"Putin said that Belarus exports to the Russian market 70-90% total export their agricultural products, 40% of engineering products. That is, the stability of the Russian market — is a matter of survival of the economy? "

Russians are richer and are not looking for cheap and quality goods.

Zlotnikau"Belarusian goods in Russia are losing their competitiveness. This trend dates back to the global crisis. Russian marketers, for example, say that a 3-4 years, manufacturers of Russia itself arrange their milk and meat market.

In Belarus, the government subsidies on agricultural products account for over 50% of the costs. And in Russia and Kazakhstan, this figure does not exceed 18%. But in the SES requires the unification of government subsidies. And the Belarusian products will be competitive.

Russia plans to build the world's largest plant for the production of powerful trucks that are going to arrange the Japanese. And will there be demand for our BelAZ? Russians are richer and are not looking for cheap and quality products. "

Tags:

Russia, oil

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