Irans Bluff (strategypage.com USA)

The new year has brought new sanctions against Iran. These sanctions are different from the past because they forbid the major customers of Iran to take the Iranian oil and make increasingly difficult in the purchase of Iran's right products. Europeans are changing oil suppliers, East Asian countries, at least Japan and South Korea. are under pressure to do the same. China looks for vendors outside the Persian Gulf. The annual oil revenues of $ 110 billion is exactly what keeps the Iranian religious dictatorship in power. Because these new sanctions came into force in late 2010, the price of Iran's currency fell by more than 10 percent, and the Iranian economy shuddered. In practice, only in the past year, the Iranian currency has lost about 60 percent of one's own worth in relation to foreign currencies. Currently, one U.S. dollar is worth 16,000 Iranian riyals a year earlier it was worth only 10,000 riyals. Now not only smugglers require a higher fee for the transportation of illegal products to Iran (due to overpricing risk of getting caught and being prosecuted), and all the foreign currency necessary for the purchase of even legitimate of imported products worth 60 percent more. This whole situation is not getting enough attention in the press zabugornoy, but for Iran it is very bad news. In addition, Iran faced declining revenues by 10 percent because of additional sanctions imposed on banking, which makes doing business with Iran more risky — not many people want to face the withdrawal of funds for the violation of the sanctions.

The new sanctions will not be pretty successful if Iran's oil revenues have been reduced by more than a third part, then the majority of Iranians prochuyat it. Iran responded by threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz (a narrow entrance to the Persian Gulf, through which 40 percent of the world's oil.) Iranian economists and financial experts believe Iran's favorites in that new sanctions are worse than all of the past and are a real danger of the Iranian economy and the survival of a religious dictatorship.

Iran has long been the voice of terrible danger and never followed them through. Iran prefers to operate in the shadows, quietly supporting terrorists and irregulars. Iran could use this approach, using submarines and small vessels for the installation of sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. But it will lead to the immediate cleaning of mines by local and foreign fleets, and massive use of military ships and aircraft to protect the continuous operation of mine. Iranian bases will be attacked to kill mines and means of delivery (small submarines and boats) that can rapidly grow to attack the entire Iranian military equipment. It is not clear how well this could have happened. This is because both sides have made significant efforts, so that (the Iranians) to conceal their anti-ship missiles and other weapons and (with a non-Iranian side) to find all Iranian weapons and ways to create a frisky its liquidation. Historically, that the defending party (in this case, Iran) is an advantage, but it is not clear how the situation in this case. It is unlikely that this will happen in the last time, because be months before the sanctions just imposed on Iran will lead to significant losses from the sale of Iranian oil. For now, with Iran, negotiations will take place, many of them hidden or simply not publicized, over its nuclear weapons, support for terrorism and other "disgusting behavior." The Iranian administration does not want war, since by them to their calculations, they could be on the losing side. Meanwhile, you can bluff bahvalstvovat and hope for the best. Iranian management believes that God is on their side and they put their trust that God will be useful to Iran this year.

Iran's bad behavior (supporting terrorism, developing nuclear weapons, the threat to neighbors) left him with a small amount of foreign friends. China, one of its main trading partners, it is a major buyer of oil. But China is clearly given to understand that if Iran's oil will be more than they are able to, then China will pay less for Iran oil, To make up at least some of the likely harm to sanctions from which China could hurt himself. Other remaining buyers of Iranian oil would seek similar concessions. Another Iranian ally is our homeland, but it is unlikely to be to solve a lot of effort to help bolster Iran. The fact that the closure or even attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz would be a gift to the Russian Federation, which is the largest exporter of oil, and does not use the strait. Prices for oil will continue to grow until such time as there is prepyadstviya with the Strait of Hormuz. Other Iranian friends, such as North Korea, Cuba and Venezuela, mostly a burden for Iran if utility.

How would any unsafe nuclear tool, This does not mean that Iran, in the event of it has nuclear weapons, in fact it uses. Historically Iran (And the current time) is not valid such makarom. In order to achieve their goals of Iran prefers to use bluster and bluff less trivial forms of violence (eg, terrorism). A nuclear weapon is a very good scary factor, which is why Iran wants to own it or at least make the last illusion of possessing nuclear weapons.

The Iranian government continues its efforts to identify and arrest the favorites opposition. Even some high-ranking clerics have been placed under house arrest for daring to criticize the religious dictatorship. Even those who are tightly interwoven with prominent reform-minded clerics are being prosecuted in closed courts for daring to criticize the government. New general elections this year will be as rigged as the last, the last in 2009.

January 6, 2012: South American warship came across an Iranian fishing boat 280 kilometers southeast of Oman, and found that the crew of 12 is held captive by Somali pirates 15. It's a common thing when pirates use ocean-going fishing vessels to gain access to the areas, where the poorly protected merchant ships. Fishing boats also provide some cover, but as shown by this case, the crews of warships now stopped and fishing boats. The pirates surrendered, horrified in my life, one way or another made an attempt to use fishermen as a human shield. Iranians were given medical help and taking into account the availability of sufficient quantities of food and fuel, they were sent back to their own way. This is a big win for the promotion of the United States, although the Iranian government and solves significant effort to bring it to nothing, and even tries to expose this incident as part of the South American komplota against Iran.

January 3, 2012: Iran made yet another empty threat requiring the South American aircraft carrier not vorachivatsya in the Persian Gulf. South American aircraft carrier will return the Iranians did not oppose the it.

January 2, 2012: Iran announced that it has experienced three missiles within ten days of naval exercises near the Strait of Hormuz. Partially — is commonplace naval exercises, but detailed study of the exercise indicates that, first, they are organized as a propaganda event for the extraction of the largest indoor and outdoor advertising.

December 27, 2011: In the north-western Iran, and four Kurdish rebels Iranian soldier had been killed during clashes at the border with Iraq.

22 December 2011: U.S. offered credit of 10 million dollars for the information driven to the capture or death of al-Qaeda financier Ezadina Abdel Aziz Khalil (Ezedin Abdel Aziz Khalil). The U.S. believes that Khalil is hiding in Iran, but Iran as generally rejects this. From time to time, Iran says the truth in these matters, but it is very difficult to understand exactly when.

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