India and Pakistan have a more than 60-year history of warfare, which is made worse by the presence of nuclear weapons in states and numerous, massive armed forces. In the past two decades, only increase the power of its nuclear forces and the ability of ordinary, arranging a regional arms race. Their confrontation was the second in the history of nuclear deterrence hotbed of confrontation after the Soviet Union and the United States.
India and Pakistan have not signed the contract on non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and have no intention of late to join. According to the latest news, Pakistan has become the fifth largest nuclear power, ahead of England and India on the number of nuclear warheads (http://topwar.ru/3336-pakistan-stal-pyatoj-po-moshhi-yadernoj-derzhavoj.html). The country is the fourth built complex for the production of weapons-grade plutonium — nuclear Kushab complex, not far from the capital. Islamabad has approximately 100 deployed strategic nuclear warheads. Pakistan is headed for significant success in the production of new medium-range ballistic missiles in the main by China and North Korea. China considers India a regional competitor, for support of Pakistan in almost all military program notes, including aircraft, rocket, tank building, and so on.
For the population of Pakistan, which supports almost all the nuclear program from the government, the existence of nuclear weapons (NW) — is a guarantee of the independence, unity and territorial integrity of the country. Pakistan's nuclear weapons and the means to manipulate public consciousness, the Pakistani media extensively on the story "cyber war", which launched against the Pakistani nuclear programs from Israel and India. According to the views of Pakistani professionals, their goal is to "defame" in the eyes of the public's nuclear program from Pakistan.
In the Indian media as disk imaging constantly raise two issues related to the security of the country: 1) nuclear programm Pakistan and the arms race — is part of a strategic plan for China's "geopolitical environment" of the country, which will be the culmination of a nuclear attack on the Chinese people of India, probably in 2017 year, and 2) the threat of Pakistan's nuclear weapons falling into the hands of Islamic terrorists, "Al-Qaeda".
At the current time, the logic of action of India and Pakistan — the continued movement of nuclear weapons by regions of the country, the continued build-up of production of fissile material (this uranium enrichment, and the establishment of a factory method of plutonium), constant modernization of ballistic missiles targeting the small and medium-range missiles, India creates its missile defense systems, both countries are increasing the number of nuclear weapons, mass produce cruise missiles, precision as a means of delivery of nuclear weapons on the enemy and the terrain, etc. Everything leads to the destruction of war.
Pakistan and India were part of a single Indian civilization and its countless people, including Muslims coexisted peacefully enough, the clashes were between the various municipalities, and not between religions. Then began the "pearl" of the British Crown — British India. British policy — "divide and conquer" — laid the "mine" of future violent conflict.
In the first half of the 20th century there were processes of the liberation of temper, in 1947, India was divided into two parts — in fact India and Pakistan is quite artificial entity: it includes the north-western Punjab, Sindh, North West Province, Baluchistan, they were settled in the main Muslim East Bengal or East Pakistan (today Bangladesh Government) with a mixed population. East Pakistan was an enclave by land from Pakistan was no connection, just by the sea. Another discrepancy was the principality, Jammu and Kashmir, where most of the followers of Islam, and the elite was of the Hindus. Pakistanis began military actions, at first through a group of volunteers, and then drawn into the armed forces. Started the first Indo-Pakistani War (1947-1949). Only in July 1949, the armistice was signed, the result of an arranged by the English section of a single civilization in the death of about half a million people and the migration of 12-17 million people. India got about 2/3 state area, the rest moved to Pakistan.
War of 1965
In Pakistan, did not put up with the loss of countryside and planning her return. In the end, started the second Indo-Pakistani War (August-September 1965), in the spring of 1965, the border between the states had a conflict because of the desert Kachsky Rann. States Army were put on full alert and tightened to the border. Only the mediation of Great Britain suspended the war, signed a truce, divided the disputed area — in 1969.
This conflict resulted in the Pakistani elite to the conclusion that the Pakistani army is stronger and can solve the problem of Jammu and Kashmir by force. Pakistan's spy agencies have started to smuggle the Indian state of saboteurs area to prepare the revolt and start a guerrilla war against the Indian government ("Operation Gibraltar"). But the Indians took to proactively seek — August 15 Indian Corps entered the Pakistani area of the state to kill the camp separatist fighters. Pakistani division did not take a punch, there was a threat to seize the capital of the Pakistani part of the state — Muzaffarabad. September 1, stormed the Pakistani army launched a full-scale war. The air force bombed the Indian town of Pakistan, and industrial centers, the two sides pelted in the rear of the enemy landings. September 6, the Indian army has invaded the area on Pakistan itself (with the border state of Kashmir) troops reached almost to Lahore but were driven counter-attack Pakistani army. One of the most famous battles of the war was the defeat of the Pakistani army pride — the 1st Armored Division. She walked towards the Indian town of Amritsar and had to grab him, but was ambushed and suffered significant losses.
The war would have lasted and beyond, NATO and the United States took a neutral position and imposed an embargo on the supply of weapons and India, and Pakistan. But intervened, Moscow, USSR was an ally of India, and was annoyed that gamble, considering that the subsequent success of India on Pakistan's side will make China and the conflict will become an international character. At the request of Kosygin in Divide flew President Nasser of Egypt, and criticized the violation of the truce. September 17, 1965 Moscow invited both parties to resolve the conflict by the Tashkent talks. January 4, 1966 in Tashkent peace talks, after lengthy debate, they have led to the fact that an agreement was reached to withdraw the troops to pre-war borders and restore the pre-war situation.
In Pakistan and India, the official propaganda has declared war victory: for example, the Pakistani generals claimed that another week and they would have blocked the Indian forces in Kashmir and Pakistani troops would march to the Divide, and their Indian colleagues have claimed that the war would have ended with the capture of Islamabad. Although military experts believe that if they continue the war the Indian army gained the upper hand. The country lost the war hundreds of tanks, planes 10s and about 5 thousand people were killed. In India drew the right conclusions after the war and the subsequent conflict is much better prepared.
War of 1971
During the partition of India in 1947, Bengal (Bengal) was
divided along religious lines into two parts: the eastern part of Bengal, which was dominated by Muslims went to Pakistan, with its capital at Dhaka (later — Bangladesh), part — to the modern India with center g . Calcutta. In Islamabad, dominated by the elite people from the western part of the country, because soon start to develop the tendency to isolation, which helped, and geographic location. Was created by the Awami League party, she sought autonomy in 1966, her favorite Madzhibura Sheikh Rahman was arrested and put in jail, but the movement was growing stronger.
In 1970, a massive natural disaster, a massive cyclone became a prerequisite for the death of about half a million people. Islamabad showed passivity in the aftermath, triggering a wave of popular anger. Madzhibur Rahman, released under public pressure in 1969, and his party won the parliamentary elections, but he was not allowed to take his own office.
March 26, 1976 was ordered to arrest Madzhibura Rahman and started military conquest of East Pakistan ("Operation Searchlight"). The methods were very bloody, destroyed intellectuals, Hindus, just in the course of the war was lost from 300 thousand to 3 million refugees are still 9 million people. Before his arrest Madzhibur Rahman declared independence and called on all to fight to the time when the last soldier leaves the area of Pakistan young country. In the Indian town of Calcutta was created government-in-exile.
In the first step of the Pakistani hardly met resistance, taking all the big town and capturing the opposition, but then turned guerrilla war. India supported the guerrillas, the Pakistani armed forces were not ready to face national squads in the jungle-covered terrain and rivers. Their base camp was on the ground in India, and in the event of danger, they crossed the border and found themselves in safety.
On November 21, there were clashes with the Indian army, December 3, Pakistani Air Force tried an unexpected blow to kill the Indian border air base, but the operation failed. Began war between India and Pakistan, the Pakistani side in Bangladesh were doomed — had no connection with the major powers are limited in resources, air cover was not enough, because they did not survive the impact of 3 Indian Corps. Islamabad tried to organize a war on two fronts, and in the west failed. December 5-6, in a battle Longueval an Indian company which has kept the Punjab Regiment hit Pakistan reinforced the 51st Brigade, the Indian Air Force was killed by hitting a huge part of the enemy's technology team. Indian Army not only parry, and ran across in coming.
In the east, the army came to India Dhaka, General Niazi, not seeing the abilities of resistance, signed on December 16th instrument of surrender 90 th. Army. Eventually became the independent state of Bangladesh.
Since 1984, the smoldering border conflict on the Siachen Glacier in 2003, the armistice was signed. In 1999, Pakistan provoked the Kargil war, though strongly denies his role in it. Pakistani intelligence agencies have developed a plan of penetration into Indian-administered Kashmir and training a number of positions in the mountains surrounded by Kargil informal armed groups. Since early May, the Pakistani unit, with the participation of Afghan militants and Kashmiri insurgents infiltrated the Kargil district. They have taken up to 200 square meters. km of Indian countryside, May 26, about 100 militants violated the border and killed several Indian outposts. They are so entrenched, apparently, many positions have been prepared in advance that the Indian army, so they knock, had to concentrate to 10 brigades of the Army, remove the massive force of artillery, armored vehicles, throw in the battle air forces. Gangs supported by fire across the border Pakistani artillery. Partly it came to melee battles, Indian Army as a whole showed the highest combat effectiveness, but the Interior Ministry and intelligence worked poorly, without revealing such manufacture. The war did not develop into a full-blown conflict 2-armies. India regained their areas.
Prospects for the latest war
Pakistani authorities at the present time are more concerned about maintaining control over the state to strengthen the criteria for the design of Islamist forces, the conflict with India went on the second plan. Anti-Indian rhetoric focused not on fomenting war, and to create a kind of external enemy. To preserve the unity of the country.
In the war of the United States are interested, their efforts apparently tracked down and in the attack on Mumbai in 2008, is clear and close cooperation Anglo-Saxon intelligence with the Islamists, and they almost made constructive Islamist groups, even when struggling with the Soviet Union. This war would destabilize a large region, will be under attack Iran, China, Turkey, and of our homeland, the United States also receive a lot of benefits.
In Divide anxiously staring at the situation in Pakistan, do not go to the conflict, but totally can intervene if Pakistan will develop a full-scale war or civilian clothes design Islamists will have access to nuclear weapons. Divide rapidly rearming the army, ready to confront the enemy of different levels — from the Afghan fighters to two-front war with Pakistan and China. India's nuclear weapons — it is a tool of deterrence, rather than anger. Indian nuclear programm almost became the answer to a successful nuclear program from the PRC. According to Indian professionals to deter Pakistan rather 15-20 charges, they are one hundred percent lead the country out of war, causing irreparable harm to the industrial potential. The Indian Air Force ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads to any point can storm Pakistan. A blow to Pakistan's nuclear weapons India, given its size and dispersal of its strategic nuclear forces, can not bring down a huge part of the Indian nuclear weapons. To contain China India needs to develop strategic nuclear forces than she is busy. Also in Divide into account that the threshold for the introduction of nuclear weapons Islamabad is limited — in the case of a breakthrough front of Indian army, the Pakistani generals are willing to use nuclear weapons first.
Belokrenitsky VY, Moskalenko, VN history of Pakistan. The twentieth century. Moscow, 2008.