Middle East and North Africa rapidly Islamized, immediately accelerated last de-Christianization of these regions. It should be noted that the process of de-Christianization did not start today's spring, and even earlier.
A century back the Christians in the Middle East was a quarter of the population of the region. In 2010, this figure was already less than 5% — about 12 to 15 million people. So, if in Syria in the early XX century, Christians were a third of the population, now they are less than 9-10%. In Lebanon in 1932 was 55% Christian, according to 2005 — up to 34%. How fast was a process of de-Christianization of the region, can be seen on Palestine: Christians in Bethlehem after Second world war it was up to 85% in 2010, remaining 12% is also prevalent in Nazareth's Christian population, now there they were less than 24%. In Jerusalem, the number of Christians had fallen from 53% in 1922 to 2% today. If at the end of British rule in Palestine, Christians were 10%, now its on Palestinian lands, including the Gaza Strip, less than 1.5%. In Egypt, the number of Christians fell from the 1970s almost half, they remained about 10% of the population, and the number continues to decrease.
Factor of the war in Iraq
It is interesting that an important factor in reducing bit of Christians in the population of the Middle East region was the war in Iraq, which unleashed the United States and NATO.
When the regime was overthrown Saddam Hussein, in which Christians lived comparable normal, constructive Islamists accused the Christian community in Iraq collaborator, began to call their supporters "crusaders" and "helpers of U.S. troops." Attacks on Christian churches, their bombings, killings, beatings and kidnappings, not to mention such "nonsense" as dangerous in the address favorites Christian communities and ordinary people have become commonplace in Iraq. A century later in Iraq was restored medieval jizya: a special tax for the Christians, which is sometimes hundreds or even thousands of dollars.
Chaldean archbishop of Kirkuk church diocese said in 2009 that after 2003 was recorded 710 murders of Catholics in the area of Iraq. Of the country's hundreds of thousands of Christians have fled, 10 of thousands moved to Iraqi Kurdistan (Kurdish Christians did not show such intolerance). In the end, Iraq was almost completely cleared of Christians, of the 1.5 million Christians living in the country with Hussein, the country has less than 150 thousand people.
The main factor that led to the elimination of the Christian sector of the population in Iraq, it was NATO intervention. Experts note that under Saddam Hussein, Christians in the state have done well. They own the majority were well educated, most belonged to the middle class of the country. Christians lived mainly in large cities — Mosul, Basra and Baghdad. A Baghdad City Christian community before the war, was listed as the largest in the entire Middle East region.
After 2003, Iraq was formally proclaimed freedom, including religious, but actually in the Constitution are statements that are forbidden in the laws that are contrary to Islamic law (Sharia). Sharply increased religious intolerance.
After the second Lebanon war (2006 year) In Lebanon significantly strengthened its position Shiite radical movement "Hezbollah", the Christian Maronite community, which previously practically rules the state has lost hegemony. From now left the country more than 60 million Christians, and, according to polls, still about half of the Maronite Christians ready to leave Lebanon.
The "Arab Spring"
Structural growth of Islamist sentiment, which came in 2003, after the start of the Troubles in the winter and spring of 2011 in the Arab world, more more complicated the situation surrounding Christian communities.
Most conflicts between Muslims and Christians in Egypt occur. Exceptionally in 2011, there were mass slaughter — in May and October. In Egypt, Christians began to put into effect, "the Iraqi scenario", after the fall of the Mubarak regime, which constrained constructive mood of the country has left more than 100 million Christians, and 10 of thousands ready to leave before the end of the year. It is understood that after the victory of the Islamists in the elections flight will be amplified.
In Libya, the head of the Transitional Council of State, Mustafa Abd al-Jalil said that the country will become the basis of Sharia law, because laws that contradict it will lose its power. As examples, he cited laws permitting divorce and prohibiting polygamy. After a negative reaction on the part of the EU, Jalili tried to soften his words, but it is clear that the rate on the Islamization of Libya will continue.
The only island of stability remained in Syria, where the Assad regime (belonging to the Alawite community) created a coalition opposed to a religious minority against the Sunni majority. But apparently, after the start of the unrest in the country, Christians have come under attack, and there favorite design Islamists have already put forward the slogan of development nezapyatannoy from the Christians of the country.
Elections in Tunisia
October 23 in Tunisia held elections to a constituent State Council, and they (the election) in almost all can find a motion vector of the country for the coming future. On their landslide victory gained moderate Islamist party "Revival", she received 39% of votes. Second and third places were taken by the "Democratic Forum for Work and Freedom" and "Republican Congress."
Her favorite Rachid Ghannouchi has more than 20 years spent outside Tunisia in exile due to his disagreement with the management of the country. He returned to Tunisia only in January of this year, immediately after the victory of the revolution and the overthrow of President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali.
In the near year parliamentarians should form a new government to the latest constitution and prepare the presidential and parliamentary elections. According to the views of the President of the Institute for Near East Yevgeny Satanovsky, there is no hesitation regarding the future of Tunisia, there are uniformly "will be introduced Sharia law."
In addition, Tunisia will be under tremendous pressure to adjoining states, which also toppled secular regimes — Egypt and Libya, which are on the path of Islamization even faster. Plus, the crisis in the European Union, which were the main partners of Tunisia. Theirs is not a serious investment, the economic situation in the country will deteriorate, drop of foreign trade to continue falling stream of tourists. And the economic crisis will further strengthen the position of the radicals. Will be strengthened position of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
While secular regimes in North Africa and the Middle East goes into the past, the region in the long years comes in stormy streak. In North Africa, a mountain in the stormy sea is only Algeria, that a Moroccan ruler over all inferior local Islamists and ready to join the monarchist coalition led by the Saudis.
Therefore, if the Tunisian party "Revival" not cope with the Islamization of the country, we can not hesitate, she will "help" from the outside.