At present, China is at the stage of "prosperity" — an extended economic and demographic reproduction, although population growth Chinese elite was able to stop, but in return received the "aging" of the population and reducing the number of ladies of the population. China's economy (with the help of the U.S.) is experiencing rapid growth, it has overtaken Germany, Japan and the United States is catching up. But this growth lies a death trap if it is the brakes, China will face a dire socio-economic neuvvyazkami that are guaranteed to cause a political crisis, riots farmers and Muslim regions. In the end, China will enter the stage — "death."
Chinese elites are aware of this historical pattern and completely reasonable to imagine that she has planned a way to overcome or at least extend the time frame period of "growth." Chinese philosophers assume that it is possible stage — the "Great Harmony".
Signs of approaching the stage of "death"
— "Overheating" of the economy of China, very frisky growth has led to the fact that if the State will stagnate (and this may be due to the global crisis, demand in the U.S., Europe, Russia, etc., falls, although he maintained artificially Pumped unsecured paper, but it's not forever), then China will surge in the socio-economic problems.
— The feverish arms race, which China has unleashed in the 90 years of the 20th century, the race of weapons including the whole of South-East Asia.
— Growing discontent of the poorest segments of the population (peasants), they are to this day a large portion of the population. For example, the movie "Avatar," which is popular in Russia, gained huge popularity in China. The Chinese associate themselves with fabulous people, "Navi", because the authorities are pursuing a policy of population eviction from ancestral lands to build large-scale projects. While dissatisfaction offset by the ability to find work in the cities.
— The growth of hedonism, the expansion of the "new Chinese" — more yachts, casinos, luxury. China admits evenly viruses destruction — more freedom to get imbeciles (trances, buggers). The growth of municipal corruption and the party apparatus until the truth is constrained by revealing the shootings.
— The growth of spontaneous violence, particularly in respect of babies (which is very bad sign, with very reverent attitude to children), provides for an increase of negativity in the subconscious world of Chinese civilization.
— Search for peaceful ways to go on the stage of "The Great Harmony. Likely only with good will of the Chinese elite and in very close cooperation with the Russian civilization. But taking into account that Russia itself is in search of …
— Outside expansion, including the military, to extend the time period the stage of "growth" needs new terrain, resources — particularly acute problem of clean water and agricultural land values.
Signs of training of military expansion
— The arms race, China for 20 years, and in the 80 years of the 20th century, it was a war, "middling", became a military power in terms of the number two. North American military experts have cautiously they say that China will soon surpass the U.S. power and the number of modern weapons.
— China is preparing its army, as an offensive by land — massive land armies, with lots of heavy weapons, as well as to conflict with the enemy sverhtehnologichnym — rapidly improves fleet, builds aircraft carriers, develops air defense antiship weapon, the Air Force counterspace weapon.
— China's neighbors have stepped up dramatically modernize the armies — South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, India (all have territorial disputes with China, which can be an occasion for a major war). Only Our homeland "asleep."
— In the Chinese press, military circles talking about the need for the expansion of the country's survival.
— In recent Chinese films clearly traced image of the enemy — the "white man", rarely inhabitants of the country of the rising sun.
Relation to the U.S.
China believes that the United States have not managed to behold the role of favorite and that the United States is waiting for "restructuring". Chinese elite thinks that the U.S. Army does not "pull" traditional war, and go to a huge war for Taiwan. Although it will maintain its own Asian "allies" (diplomatically, can be an instrument, financial). In addition, China — a "factory" of the U.S. and naikrupneyshy holder of U.S. debt obligations, the war with him, and in particular the "real", will bring a staff of more loss.
Because U.S., the UK and France, before the second world war to the last will sustain the expansion of China, at the expense of their neighbors. In addition, the American elite will be profitable war in Asia, the world will forget about their dilemmas.
Territorial claims of the Middle Kingdom
According to ancient Chinese geopolitical concept: China — is the "center of the world", and surround the Celestial Empire "barbarians" and "subhuman", who must pay tribute to the empire. Due to the fact that China is very conservative on some issues, this concept has been in Communist China rethought and modernized. Mao Zedong: "We certainly have to get the South-East Asia, including South Vietnam, Thailand, Burma, Malaysia, Singapore. … Area such as South-East Asia, is very rich, there are a lot of minerals, he fully deserves the cost to acquire it. In the future, it will be very useful for the development of Chinese industry. So Makarov, will be one hundred percent to compensate for losses. Once we get hold of Southeast Asia, this area will be to increment our forces … "(1965)," We must conquer the globe … In my opinion, the most important thing our globe, where we will make a strong power. "
List of the "lost Chinese territories" is very broad: Burma, Laos, Vietnam, Nepal, Bhutan, northern India, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Korea, the Ryukyu Islands, more than 300 islands in the South China, East China Sea and yellowish, Kyrgyzstan, part Tajikistan, South Kazakhstan, the Afghan province of Badakhshan-Shan, Mongolia, Baikal and Far South East directly to Okhotsk. "The lost Chinese territory" are more than 10 million square meters. km.
This is superior to the area of China (9.6 million sq. km.) More than doubled. After Mao, the Chinese leaders "are cool" and such claims are not voiced, but they have remained a historical concept.
And do not think that China forgets what he thinks is his — he returned Hong Kong (until 1997 belonged to England), Macau (until 1999 was owned by Portugal), chop off part of the territory of Russia (2005 — 337 sq. km.), 1000 thousand square meters. km. in Tajikistan (in January 2011, and claims to be 28 thousand square meters. km.). Stronger than China and weaker neighbors, the more "appetite".
Also unclear faith in diplomacy. China many times, even before he became the number two power, to join with their neighbors in armed conflict: two border conflict with India — 1962, 1967, Sino-Soviet border conflict — in 1969, the war with Vietnam — in 1979, two border conflict with Vietnam — 1984, 1988, three Taiwan Strait crisis. China is "consumed" three vast areas that are not part of the Chinese civilization — the East Turkestan (captured in the 18th century), Inner Mongolia (just after World War 2) and Tibet (the 50s of the 20th century).
To the land of the rising sun and the people of the country of the rising sun in China rather negative attitude, the reason is very impartial, in the late 19th — early 20th century, Japan was involved in the robbery of China coupled with the West. Twice attacked China in the years of the second world war has arranged a real genocide in North China, millions of Chinese have been killed (no precise figures). And Japan so far has not brought an official apology for the policies of the then government.
There is a territorial dispute over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, which Japan invaded in 1895. China regularly finds that the Land of the Rising Sun is time to return the "native Chinese" areas, open this zayaviviv in 1992. In 1999, the situation has worsened because the shelf, were found huge supplies of natural gas and the two countries have begun preparations for its production.
Japan at the end of 2010, even revised its military strategy, which is now the main threat to the land of the rising sun Our homeland is not named, but the problem of North Korea and the arms race, which had initiated China. Because Japan wants dovooruzhit submarine fleet, Navy, Air Force and otherwise strengthen the friendship with the United States.
The Korean Peninsula
Korea since ancient times, is considered a "vassal" of China. At the current time, China supports the DPRK and developing trade and economic cooperation with the two Koreas. But how China, if the peninsula plainclothes war breaks out and the communist regime of North Korea will fall is unclear. As an option — likely occupation of North Korea.
It is considered part of a single and indivisible China, from 1992 — to 1999, there were negotiations for reunification, but failed, because the Taiwanese management said, China and Taiwan — a "two countries on both sides of the Taiwan Strait."
China began preparing for a military solution to the issue. U.S. and Japan, in the current time support Taiwan, the United States Army equips Taiwan. But what would happen if the United States will face a severe internal crisis, or another war (Iran, Pakistan, …). U.S. will not be able to defend Taiwan, resources will not be enough, and of the South American public does not understand: why protect the Chinese from the Chinese.
Taiwanese elite in the current time secures the armed forces: Navy, the development of unmanned aerial vehicles, anti-ship missiles, air defense, asks the U.S. to implement the new fighters.
The problem of the Spratly Islands and Paracel Islands
Paracel Islands — a small uninhabited archipelago in the Tonkin sea, captured in 1974 by China, but claimed by Vietnam on him, and Taiwan.
Spratly Islands — an archipelago in the south-western part of the South China Sea, comprising more than 100 small islands, reefs and atolls, their area is less than 5 km ². The total area is more than 400 thousand km ². Region 6 contested states — Vietnam, China, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei.
The cause of the conflict — a fundamental strategic position of the island, the region is rich in biological resources and the ability to find rich deposits of oil and natural gas.
Part of the island is occupied by military troops from Vietnam, China, the Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan. Constantly occurring small skirmishes, in 2008, the Philippines said they would "fight to the last sailor and Marine" for the Spratly Islands. There is a possibility of a major war. All six countries in recent years, securing the armed forces, especially the Navy, special attention is paid to the submarine fleet, naval aviation.
The "old" enemy of China, was under the dominion of the yellow dragon a thousand years, until the 10th century of our era. China is a competitor for the impact on neighbors in Southeast Asia, there are territorial disputes — Spatli Islands and Paracel Islands.
While Vietnam was an ally of the Soviet Union, a serious threat to him was not, but at the current time, the level of danger is very grown up. Management of Vietnam attaches armed forces, finds contacts with the United States (strolling rumors that even ready to give Cam Ranh as a military base) to strengthen cooperation with India.
China believes the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, part of southern Tibet and accordingly its own territory. India wants to see China regained terrain — Aksai Chin. China increases economic, military cooperation with Pakistan, Bangladesh, which are historically and culturally part of the Indian civilization. China is increasing its influence in the countries surrounding India, the Indian elite who usually finds its own sphere of influence — Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka.
So grab Tibet, India, not nature. In response to India increases the power of the armed forces, is stepping up cooperation with the United States, Russia. Limited the ability of a major war inaccessibility border of China and India, the mountains.
China believes that the province of Badakhshan-shun "native Chinese." But while Afghanistan is a continuous war, a greater attention to the economic expansion. Apparently, when the U.S. and its allies withdraw from Afghanistan, China will be the "senior" in the region and will receive the necessary resources it without war. Afghanistan is destroyed, it requires large investments in the rehabilitation of infrastructure in China they are.
China claims to be 28 thousand square meters. km. in the Eastern Pamirs. In January 2011, Tajikistan lost one thousand square meters. km. the disputed areas. Given the virtually zero, compared with China's military potential of Tajikistan, sooner or later he will give all the "disputed" area, and maybe others (taking into account the possibility of civilian war in the country). The only salvation for him — the return of the Russian Federation.
In 1996 and 1999, Kyrgyzst
an has transferred to China about 12 square kilometers. its territory, on this, so far, China has calmed down. But taking into account the plight of Kyrgyzstan: economic difficulties, weak army, ethnic conflict (Kyrgyz-Uzbek), the possibility of spillover of the Troubles from Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan is destined to become "prey" strong. As for Tajikistan in the criteria of the global crisis, the only salvation of the people, from the "kitaizatsii" or constructive Islamization, the return of the Russian Federation.
1992-1999 years was a diplomatic process in the course of its China received 407 square meters. km. areas of Kazakhstan. Over the issue of China's territory does not lift, it is considered settled. But Kazakhstan is not much populated, the military potential of small border with China is enormous — more than 1,700 km. and how to behave in the PRC in the criteria for the necessity of survival, of course.
Is a continuation of Inner Mongolia and therefore a natural extension of China. In the 20th century, China has attached its not only because of the powerful intercession of the Russian Union. China is fascinating that when a large area — nearly empty of people (2.7 million), with no real armed forces (about 9 million people).
In 1991, Mikhail Gorbachev signed a contract in which the border was held in the middle of the fairway of the Amur River. Earlier, the Chinese border was the River Amur. 2004-2005 biennium. Putin gave China 337 square meters. km. Russian land. At this territorial issue, seems to be resolved, but the "appetite awakens during the meal." China is at a crossroads, and if the choice is made in favor of external expansion — Our home more affordable "client." While China has limited the economic development of Russian territories and settling virtually empty areas of Siberia, the Far East.
A possible first victim of Chinese expansion
The first victims of yellowish Dragon seems to be:
— Taiwan, because of principled position of China, Taiwan — is part of the Chinese civilization. And peace and likely final — if the Taiwanese elite overpower his ambitions. If there is a military operation, the victims will bolshennymi, but I think the United States and the West make some noise, but really will not make war;
— Northland: Our homeland, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, due to the fact that it is sparsely populated areas, with bolshennymi supplies of resources and a weak military capabilities (major war in the west part of Russia, and China will have time to resolve all the issues to capture Siberia and the Far East before they are able to come to their fights).
Blow to India, not China is fascinating theater of action is not appropriate (the mountain), India's largest army and its human reserves, almost the same as that of China. Against India, China may hold a limited operation in order to support its own ally — Pakistan if India will knock on it.
The war with Vietnam or any country in South-East Asia, is not profitable. Raw material resources in these countries are limited, countless people, the army strong. Because these countries are China to leave later, can not be subordinated to the war, seeing the fate of the northern neighbors yellowish Dragon they will become "vassals" of the PRC.
Japan seems to be the last, marine captures spending hard enough. But given the lack of love for the Chinese people of the country of the rising sun, their fate will be very sad, very thin out the population of the islands.
Feature expansion will be the factor that the Chinese elite will spare no fighter, no technique. In China, a serious demographic crisis, the "aging" of the population and an overabundance of young guys, the lack of women. The more polyazhet in fighting the better, inside China will fall "boil" of social tensions. And the need for mass production of military equipment, tools, support the economy.
Being able to make our homeland for their own salvation?
— Diplomatically support the peaceful reunification of the mainland of China and the Chinese island of Taiwan.
— Increase the volume of economic cooperation, crisis and social upheaval in China — is a signal that the start of the power expansion is very close. We need peace in China and the growth of the economy and culture of its people.
Need a Russian cultural expansion — the Russian language, cinematography, education, literature.
— The strategic alliance with India, recognizing her Indian civilization — Pakistan, Bangladesh. Mutual assistance in the event of Chinese aggression.
— The vast military-technical and economic cooperation with Mongolia, the Korean state, the countries of South-East Asia. Forging an Alliance with Vietnam.
— Immediate restoration of the Pacific Fleet, a major enhancement of the Far Eastern Group of Forces.
— Large-scale re-programm the development of Siberia and the Far East (for the base generation can take Krupnova Yu), the alignment of the demographic imbalance, when the bulk of the population lives in the European part of Russia. The program support fertility Russian and indigenous peoples of Siberia and the Far East (3-4 kids per family).
— The Russian elite has shown the will to live, quietly warned China that the invasion of the Russian sphere of influence and land of Russia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Mongolia) may lead to a limited nuclear strike weapon, the rich coastal towns of China.
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