V.Silitsky: Lukashenko is elegantly minimized the external challenges

Society
Drakakhrust: Vitali, before the elections remain two hours. We do not yet know what will happen tonight. But now, we can say what the current campaign is different from the 2006 campaign?

Silitski: Obviously, the less violence. Even allowing for the fact that the beginning of a pattern of repression steps. Exactly how does it differ, we can say after 3 days. But to define a number of factors.

In this election, there was no real struggle for power. The first — tried to fight for power, one candidate, but his forces were very weak. The second — the power to choose manipulation rather than proactive scenario. Proactive — this is when the government is trying to clamp immediately everything. On once were allowed some liberal scenery to be more related to external than internal factors.
Positive for the expansion of freedom of society the result was precisely because disappeared degree of political tension. After all, no significant internal challenges Lukashenko during the election did not occur. There were external calls, but Lukashenko them quite elegantly minimized. It is nicely spread and normalize relations with all foreign players.
Professional foreign policy of the Belarusian authorities in these elections — it was unexpected for me.

Drakakhrust: This morning, Lydia Yarmoshina sounded early voting numbers — 23%. It is 8 percentage points lower than it was in 2006. Does this mean that the final figure will be a vote for Lukashenko is more modest than in the last election? And this morning, Lukashenko said that Kastusyou public polls came in second place. So it will be in the official results?

Silitski: I will answer the second question, I'm not sure. Kastusyou — one of the possible contenders for second place. Perhaps it will be Sannikov, but spragnazuyu that it will not Nekljaev. If the 10 candidates, no one but one does not have a proper political capital, and they can be set as desired. In 2006 he was clear number two. They wanted to stick to the last, but not atrymalasya.Pa my experience, if the vote count was normal, the second place would be Nekljaev.

As for the numbers of early voting, I think it is really an indicator that the official figure of votes for Lukashenko will be closer to the results of 2001 and not in 2006 — around 76%.

Drakakhrust: It is believed that the result of the campaign to determine the area. What's your prediction — that will solve Area? What will happen in the Square?

Silitski: The area is very important. The issue of power is almost not worth it, but there's the question of what is this power, what would be the course. It depends on the power relations with the outside world. Will there be enough Lukashenko patience. He hardly gives this liberal decoration.
Another question — is there a plan for those who lead the people in the area, will be able to detain people on more than 3 hours. If not, you do not need any reprisals. All will resolve.

There is not a bigger challenge for the government and the opposition. After all, if everything quickly dissipate, the political capital of leaders who call people on the area and who pretend that the people following him, not for myself, like, say, I go — this capital will znivelyavany.

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