Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has decided not to sell advanced weapon — C-300 — to Iran. In administration Obama is being touted as a dividend to "reset" relations with Russia. And although the administration did not offer direct quid pro quo to the Kremlin (from the Latin. «Qui pro quo», almost — who instead of whom "in this case — the" exchange of services "- approx. Lane.), Moscow will have to wait steps from Washington in response to the usmotritelnoe shaking outstretched hands of Obama.
Both — both Obama and Bush — begged the Kremlin did not do in 2006 signed an agreement on almost 1 billion. bucks to sell Iran anti-aircraft missile systems S-300 and Medvedev on Wednesday officially announced that the transaction did not take place.
Analysts in a white house considering the decision of the Russian Federation, which, according to the views of Kremlinologists, comes from the Medvedev as a new dawn in relations between Russia and the United States and a significant step in the upcoming isolation of the regime in Tehran. A senior administration official, speaking for «The Cable», said that Moscow's refusal to implement the missile systems S-300 and a number of other types of advanced weapons is a policy decision, since the imposition of sanctions against Iran for Russia is more expensive action than for the United States.
"The last two years they openly read as us that for them it is not equivalent deal, and that we adhere to various criteria in assessments of threats from Iran — said the bureaucrat. — It was a bold, important for us, a decision which indicates how important Medvedev to "reset" with President Obama. "
Bureaucrats explained to the Obama administration gave a clear grasp Medvedev and other Russian bureaucrats that the sale of S-300 to Iran — reddish trait that can not be crossed. This question was rising at each meeting of the highest level between the two countries-name. Israeli officials did the same thing in meetings with their Russian colleagues.
The issue was raised in July, during Medvedev's visit to Washington. Two weeks back he re-open a discussion during a visit to Russia by the Russian Federation's senior director of the State Security Council Michael McFaul and Undersecretary of State William Burns. Defense Secretary Robert Gates pressed the Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov, in discussing this question during his visit to Washington last week (along with a lingering possibility of the Russian missiles to Syria.) Hillary Clinton met a minister of foreign affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in the day when it was announced on the refusal of the transaction.
How, why, after long years of Russian finally decided to disrupt the sale of guns? In Washington, imply that they have something in what Moscow is a need and that in Moscow believe in the commitment of the United States to promote. Our homeland has been fighting for the highest U.S. support of their application for membership in the World Trade Group (WTO), and Moscow is planning to finish the job this year.
"The momentum for accession to the WTO — that is what they are to behold the next great talks with us. We are exactly in the center of it. This asymmetric because it is more in their interest than ours. But I think we should do it, "- said the representative of the administration.
But, according to the bureaucrat, administration Obama did not ask Russia about the service and did not promise, in turn reciprocate. The idea is to do with the U.S. steel RF worth more than their contacts with Iran, and both countries should act in their own self-interest.
"In fact, the goal is not the development of good-quality relations with Russia, and the promotion of our national security, economic interests and the promotion of human values," — said the bureaucrat.
But the presentation of professionals on how to apply for this step Our homeland is divided: should this be considered a success "reset" policy, taking into account that our homeland has continued to provide assistance to Iran in other matters, and remains in a confrontation with the West, continuing the occupation of Georgia ?
Clearly, the United States and our homeland in the current time collaborating on such major issues as Iran, more than before, and that the Obama team has made question implementation tools to Iran a priority in its own relations with Russia. That in this case prompted Russia to the last step? Maybe it was a combination of reasons: the desire to get further concessions from the United States and the deterioration of relations with Iran. Tehran protests against the Russian decision, Chief of the armed forces of Iran referred to the decision "illogical", since, according to him, it does not fall under the action of the resolution number 1929 of the Security Council of the UN.
However, some skeptics believe that Moscow has not yet made the strategic decision to abandon Iran in favor of the development of relations with the United States.
"Let's wait a little before you open the champagne", — said David Kramer, who was an assistant Municipal Secretary for Democracy and Human Rights under the Bush administration. He appreciated the actions of the Obama administration, forced the Russian to abandon the delivery of S-300, but noted that Moscow as before cooperating with Iran in Bushehr, where there is a nuclear reactor. Russian company "Lukoil" could undermine U.S. energy sanctions. Maybe even Russia's accession to the criticism of the U.S. and EU sanctions against Iran, which gives Brazil, India and China.
Kramer in the review articles for the "Washington Post" is also very critical of McFaul and Burns for the inadequate conviction occurred the other day meeting arrests activist Lev Ponomarev and other Russian human rights activists.
"Unfortunately, it is unlikely Administration Obama will read the truth about RF until such time as the promotion of a "reset" of relations with Russia is one of the major foreign policy success. Worse, the administration can not tear away once linking the struggle for human rights and the problems of relations between the U.S. and Russia. This is a signal to Russian officials that their conduct does not entail consequences, "- writes Kramer.
A senior administration official said on article Cramer. In an interview with «The Cable» he just made the objection that the Obama administration is not silent about human rights violations in Russia.
"We do not play this game. We will not remain silent on issues of democracy and human rights, in order to get their concessions on the C-300. Confirmation of this are obvious. We do not depart from his own words. We released the 10's allegations of non-compliance with human rights in Russia, — said the bureaucrat. — This is what we call the interaction of a 2-directions. "
The administration has refused diplomatic practice of "linking" when the United States gestures communicated with the relevant steps of. They are convinced that the deepening of cooperation with Russia will have spin-offs in different areas, and progress will be gradua
"You do not have to wait for that behavior immediately become constructive and enlightened only because the United States announced a" reset "- said Samuel Charap, fellow at the Center for South American progress. — Our homeland remains as before Russia. "
The refusal of the Russian Federation to respond to international calls during the war in Georgia in 2008 showed that in Moscow believe that they are a little confused, in spite of going West. "They were not worried that Washington thinks, since they do not put at stake — said Charap. — On our side, cooperation in the political debate from time to time is seen as an endorsement, a legacy of the Bush administration. "
Other experts in Russia have seen in this step is a symbol of success Medvedev's foreign and out of control, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, the former president, who in 2006 signed a deal for the C-300.
"It seems to be an independent statement Medvedev. At first glance, South American policy of encouraging Medvedev and Putin ignored, it seems, has strengthened its position in this case, "- said Alexandros Petersen, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
But although administration Obama does not see a direct connection, the Russian, of course, want to get something for their efforts. In a statement on the C-300 indicates that our motherland can lift the ban at least some time. This means that if the white-washed house to wish that the "reset" has progressed, he has to continue to make concessions to Moscow, such as an agreement in the field of civilian nuclear energy, advocated by Russia, but in the Congress opposition against him stands.
"I think that's what they will try to get, and if they do not get something substantial in return, we will see a shift away from that promise," — said Petersen.