Results and outlook on life in the Net Igor Ashmanova — 1st-founder of Russian IT-industry
The government turned to RuNet
In 2012, our government, in the end, found that RuNet occupied by alien political and ideological forces. This event has an impact on everything. It is clear that no power can vsepolnotsenno rule in the occupied areas, because the power was shaken. But these "strangers" a great experience, and they have long been working successfully streamlined technologies of information warfare — in Serbia, Georgia, Ukraine, Egypt, Libya and Tunisia — and won everywhere. Russian government is opposed to world-class player, grandmaster. With all of this in his hands most of the Internet technologies (browsers, search engines, social networks, operating systems).
To preserve the sovereignty of the information necessary to do something, but what? Rapidly develop your website, and other OSes — is unrealistic.
Sovereign tool of the country — it's the law. Our government has taken on this tool. In the summer of 2012 laws were passed to protect kids on the roster and illegal websites are being prepared, and other laws "about the Web." Started blocking web sites and pages. It was much much much noise that is coming to freedom of speech and censorship.
In fact it is — it is not censorship. It really protect children.
Here is another question: would it not be in the process of implementation of the Law on the Protection of kids created techno and organizational infrastructure for the unnecessary blocking of political content? The answer is very common, yes, there is such an infrastructure in most countries, it will be created and we, with all this, it will be created in any case.
Changing the landscape in social media
"Living The magazine" once past the main discussion forum RuNet, almost died due to constant technical failures and lack of development. Management of the "Learn" shifts the blame for DDoS-attacks and unknown attackers (vaguely hinting that it is, for sure, malicious hackers FSB wish to silence the democratic community in LiveJournal). But others are popular social and commercial services RuNet have not the least pressure attackers, but continue to operate measured. I think if you Learn everything remains with the management, the objectives and the owners, as it was in 2012 — the "Learn" will not survive 2013.
Blitzkrieg "the Facebook" in RuNet completely failed. The number of active users "FB" to stabilize at a few million, it became clear that the one hundred millionth "VKontakte" he did not win. "VKontakte" convenient, dearer, and in addition, as they say verbatim students: Why "Facebook" if "VC" we "can look the video and listen to music bespalevno."
There was a tendency in the middle of a prestigious network of intellectuals — a pointed cross of "VKontakte", loudly declaring that. Revived "Classmates" and once again began to gain an audience.
"Yandex" and Mail.ru also strengthened its lead as the most popular portals enjoying RuNet.
"Twitter" is also stabilized at about 2 million active users per month.
It seems that social networks and portals RuNet in 2012 defended his seat against foreigners.
Internet bubble of 2010 — 2012 years deflates
Sonorous failed IPO "the Facebook" and "Groupon." In general the decline of coupon, group them and similar services built on nezapyatannoy greed.
Start-up hysteria, the main trend in 2011, is also disappearing. Do not understand romance frontier in RuNet seem quite complete.
Internet business has become quite pragmatic and constant: it has entered an era of huge battalions of significant audiences and budgets, transaction processing at high speeds, based on the sale of user data on auctions sites and advertisers. It looks like the romance and history of success go towards the mobile web and the television.
Leading search engines in 2012 introduced the personalization of search results. This means that the search results on the same request now will be different for all users, regardless of their search behavior and assess their interests search engine. The method of analysis of the results of interests and options, of course, was not disclosed.
The leading social network, the first "Facebook" also significantly increased the personalization of messages tapes for their own users, selecting for their "most exciting" with the hidden algorithms. These configurations, according to press releases, targeted at increasing the convenience for the user.
In my opinion, they are in fact cause the alienation of people coming into the network, their closure in their own narrow aimed at a specific niche topics, semantic apartment, cloisters: in fact, will simply not build anything that you do not like or seem uninteresting and means the chance of finding new and change their point of view becomes smaller. And yet this process intensifies, a positive working relationship and leads to "zakapsulirovaniyu" of consciousness.
The loss of attention and memory
In 2012, an epidemic swept RuNet "video clip thinking": the user account has been fragmented, unstable. The average user does not hold the focus of attention, can not take longish texts. No one looks longish clips. Content must be finely granular, easily digestible, read diagonally, consist of the usual images of "memes" and archetypes.
With all of this memory is the average web user was quite short-lived, no one even remembers what it was in the past month, not to mention about the past year.
Previously, the main discussion of the political platform RuNet was "Living The magazine" — a unique, purely Russian phenomenon. It was also the place of discussions, and enough storage and obmyslennyh longish texts. There could even open a discussion and read what is written in 2003.
At the same time, the political RuNet get-together to a large extent moved from the "Learn" to "Facebook" (because of fashion, technical problems and stagnation in the "Learn" and a number of other causes of severe).
A "Facebook" not only does not encourage writing longish texts and commentaries, not only solves itself automatically for users who read them, and who is not, he is also virtually no pamyati.Ves content rapidly buried, goes beyond the edge of the screen and is not the search.
The lifetime of messages in social networks (where it gets all the comments, huskies and attention from users in general) — for several hours. Post a week ago to find a hard month — and it is virtually impossible to anyone interested.
The same thing — in the "Twitter" and solely in even more pronounced form.
Little memory in all senses become a kind of trend of the year. And demonstrate that the current online battles, each of which seemed to begin from scratch. No one remembers that all of this has already been discussed, tested, tried — and did not work out quite good. It's like at the moment in Syria seek out chemical weapon, and the audience had forgotten how once nuclear weapons were found in Iraq. Perception of the video clip and
a small public memory allows you to repeat an old promotional schemes: one reception once worked, and will work at the moment.
It's about the RuNet, and in the global web, perhaps similar changes have occurred even earlier.
Network and responsibility of the media
In RuNet completely developed infrastructure "washout" of news and removing responsibility from the media.
RuNet whole year working on the generation of information events for the media.
For example, pile on, we derive a message to the trends of the Russian "Twitter" — and here it is newsworthy to the media. Well, how — the trend of Twitter! Throwing in social networks will be worth something only after it happens, "washing" in the media.
Why do I call an information box stuffing "by washing"? As the media itself is released from liability after the link to the network. Earlier media reports had earlier somehow responsible for what they wrote. But at the moment everything is possible, as fairly say, "Well, that's the same in the web said …", "How to report back to the Web." This is what we have heard and central TV channels.
So Makar, journalists completely removed from the responsibility for the reported information to the reader.
The emergence of a huge number of text bot — also the result of the year.
In the Russian sector of the "Twitter" — up to 5.4 million messages a day. 2.5-3 million of them — candid debris that is generated only 50-100 thousand accounts. And most of them — bots, scripts. Example: suddenly there is a big splash a few 10 s of thousands of messages per half day itself like this: "I've been such a level in such a game." In fact, the game itself this helps: Generates messages through accounts of users in social networks. And while it's not garbage in pure form, but it is foul InfoSpace.
Or, for example, on October 26, just 3-4 hours was created more than 250 thousand messages with the tag "# Olimpiadynebudet" and with a machine-generated text (of 100-200 options: "All the stolen", "How shameful in front of strangers" ). This was attended by about 20 thousand accounts. The tag was in trends "Twitter", and after half a day all over. Why — is unclear, it may be held accountable for propaganda budget, and can be, at this time in Sochi meeting took place a principal.
Of the remaining 1.5-2 million messages in the "Twitter" 20-30 percent — garbage, but more small, loose (our system that monitors RuNet, it is not always behold the he is more smeared out, you need to look in the eyes.)
Finally: meaningful messages in the "Twitter", well and often in "Facebook" — 2.1 percent. Even repost with the comment, in other words, posts under the "copied and commented" — uniqueness. Virtually no one commented. All InfoSpace fills repost, huskies and other non-trivial act.
This epidemic, I would not even referred to the outcome, and event of the year. When we are looking RuNet is realized — it came as a shock. Unusual content, and in fact there is no real communication. There is a regular broadcast, but read. Why? The fact that the network, as well as classic media — a magnifying glass, a means of gain, there is even the slightest signal correctly filed, amplified by many orders of magnitude. And because small means you can achieve great things.
Sad trend of the year: now the Web can do anything.
Many in the past year, quarreled on political grounds, the online community had a large split. Degree of hatred rose dramatically. Including the people with whom many years peacefully communicated. Emotions are going through the roof, people hear each other ended up in a conversation just run across to abuse, insults and rapidly become accustomed to that style of communication. Many find that the standard excuse: the network is always so, "it's the Web, boy, here may send" As if the offense ceases to be an insult if it is written in the "Facebook", and not the voice said.
With all of this, and in the public field, and in the media, came whipping hatred and moral barriers fall, dropping all the masks. Business and informing the media that were previously kept at least the appearance of objectivity, for the moment quite finished smuschyatsya and took one of the political parties (in the main, of course, liberal).
At the moment, a journalist, including online journalist — is angry political fighter, and not sober observer. And it is not shameful for the loss of innocence prof.
It is not shameful business magazine journalist to be an active participant in meetings, to fight the hated riot police, go to parties and political structures that are not shameful to distribute in their own Tipo neutral media pure propaganda. Do not give away shamefully decent publications massively to his associates, "press crust" for "otmazyvaniya" at rallies, etc.
In general, the division, hatred, rejection of responsibility, the removal of masks and the final loss of shame — this is also how frustrating it did not sound, the result in 2012. RuNet intensively participated in it.
Formed statist internet militia
People statist worldview has developed a feeling that the government plays in the web that in general — the truth.
In 2012, formed a militia Internet: these people consider it their duty to fight in the web with the Liberals. "Statists" united partisan manner, evenly, in the main for the time of last year's protests and rallies. With that in all of, without a call and help the authorities: that of "the movement from below," and quite strong. I watched them: created as drops, evenly blended into all great teams. You need to keep in mind that by this time was already long since created a powerful army of Internet fighters from the liberal camp. For long periods of time, no one opposed. or almost none. There were some structures Surkov, the so-called "Bots Nashi ', but, in my opinion, it was more terrible rumors from the back side. And if they were, they did not do a puzzle, since the bots (or a cheap bio-robots) with real people can not be beat, goes bad. Yes, in general, to illumine 2011 could see how they were doing their task: RuNet was, in fact, occupied by liberal propaganda. In 2012, the network is not only appeared opponents, and the real battle began.
As they say the Chinese, portend very hard, especially when it concerns the future. So I can only call the trend.
The impact on the country will increase RuNet
In a brand new year, the country's penetration on the Web will last. Continue the legal battle for influence on RuNet. In the Duma will be made to bills of garbage on the web in general. Will build public-private infrastructure filtering. We will see the first sonorous courts about blocking websites, as liability for "online bazaar".
The politicization of RuNet will increase
It would seem that, where else? But the role of the network grows — means test to use it will only usilivatsya. Technology ballot box stuffing and distribution disk imaging is also not standing still. We will see the final text blurring the boundaries between robots and humans mechanized. RuNet reincarnated without annoying rumbling in the political field of battle, where the main fight will be between themselves and the small boats — robolyudi.
The frequency of appearance of new themes, frantic and full discussion of epidemics forgetting increase even in times of the current cycle in a couple of weeks to a day or a period of 3-4.
Speak to the telecom
In 2013-2014, will merge with th
e Web and television. When this may not be the computer as many thought, and a TV set. Many TVs have a more massive than computers, they are connected to the network, let you go on Youtube, download music and movies from torrent.
The market will be the development of "second screen": downloading of recommendation application on its own tablet, and govern with its screen TV set or choose transfer in real time. In 2013, offer new services: sports viewing and discussion on the website telekanala.V application for "smart" TV set, for special Internet sites for interactive television. Many users to be rather a "smart" TV, they will not or no longer will use a computer.
In 2013, with the mobile Web will be published in more than half of the users. Many of the new mobile user in the coming 2-3 years may already be completely miss the stage furnishing desktop computer, since the tablet and phone will cover all of their internet needs. There will completely new services and social networks, initially living in the mobile device and do not have a web of its own base.
Igor Ashmanov. Ph.D., special recognizable in the field of artificial intelligence, software engineering, project management. Managing Partner, "Ashmanov and partners." He graduated from the Mechanics and Mathematics Faculty of Moscow State University.
Engaged in information technology since 1983. Managed development programs from spelling ORFO in "Computer Science", was co-owner and CEO of "DeLuxe" produced VOX dictionaries, Executive Director Internet holding "Rambler". During this time, he has released several 10-s projects, among which:
At the current time — the general director of "Ashmanov and partners," the chairman of the board of directors "Nanosemantika."
Igor Ashmanov — Member International Union of Internet Professionals "EZhE" twice won in the category "Man of the Year" competition in network ROTOR (in ROTOR ROTOR 2004 and 2006), as part of the movement "EZhE" There is a gallery of prominent figures of the network to which DFI is Igor Ashmanova.