The worst thing that can happen in the field of defense and security — is to ignore the trends of possible threats that get the features of regularity, and not react to them. Will focus only on some of these trends.
The consequences of the regime "by default"
First trend is de facto linked to the development in the U.S. and some NATO countries precision delivery systems and non-nuclear weapons arsenal with the introduction of cruise missiles and aircraft, including the hypersonic propulsion. The second is related to the implementation of the United States set of programs designed to create criteria for deployment in space frisky shock-intelligence systems to consolidate gallakticheskogo and air space in the "single operational environment", which allows to build a flexible system for solving problems of oppression as a potential opponent for all transcontinental space and on the local level, at least some theater. And the third trend, which is destined to be the 2015-2020 regularity, is to try to bring to life the concept of "fighting in a single information space."
Of course, that all three of these trends — only "part of the whole" and they are united by one motivated function — Consolidation of military and technical advantages at the global level.
In truth than others can explain the presence in the United States is already almost 200 thousand cruise missiles filled with high-precision non-nuclear munitions? And this despite the undeniable advantage of America compared with at least some state of the world on both general and strategic types of weapons. It would seem that there is an obvious redundancy that does not have a reasonable explanation. But this is only the first memory from a common sense perspective.
There is in fact another meaning, and it comes down to the declared U.S. strategy for global esteem, allowing simultaneous kick to put the entire depth of the enemy country. Key words in this strategy are the "simultaneous blow", which can be scheduled only if the massive use of cruise missiles, along with the use of other types of guns. It follows from this statement and the scope of tasks. And all this against the background of a busy complex intelligence, unmanned and manned spacecraft, the global network of interaction network-centric capabilities, etc.
There is legitimate question: what can and should be opposed to the development of such a script?
The answer would have to break down. For the past 20 years, none of the Municipal weapons programs failed, and their "content" and the provision for the financing of these years were clearly inadequate degree of growing military-political and technological threats.
It is not that the real situation in the Armed Forces and the defense industry, deliberately suppressed. On the contrary — there are a number of highly qualified and motivated publications in magazines and newspapers ("Weapons and military equipment", "Aerospace Defense", "Military-Industrial Courier," etc.). But with all this there was no reaction to them, usually do not. There was a situation where the country and the leading political forces of society has become about the most desirable prepyadstviya state security to respond in a "default" instead of the harsh realization of research challenges of responsible debate and decision-making.
Meanwhile, for a variety of components to ensure complete system security defense "point of no return" is back. This directly applies to most parts of the aviation facilities and general arms control and communication systems, certain types of electronic warfare, a number of specific materials, products and devices, etc. Specific examples of the creation of efficient systems and materiel (eg C-400, "Iskander") remain faster only exception "piece goods", a very poor reflection on the defensive capacity of the country.
This must be done immediately
Fundamentally see what all the previous years Applets AME truly reflected in the main folding current trends in the field of defense policy, methods of combat oriented implementation tools and resources to concentrate on the main lines. So there is not the degree of "correctness" of these programs, and in the trivial discrepancy level of resources available for their execution and effectiveness of the use of what is received.
In the end, we have what we have. And the means to ensure the security of the defense more than it is now, it seems, will not. This reality. It is very worrying. Reaction to it could become active municipal policy in the sphere of defense, reflected in the adoption of measures Eager, a kind of "road map" to improve the armed forces and defense industry development for the coming 10-20 years. The structure and composition of the measures should be the result of severe research, although a number of necessary steps is quite understandable and inevitable is at the moment.
First step: Eager necessary measures to increase the efficiency and resistance to different kinds of impact of strategic security system (EWS, the Strategic Missile Forces, VKO). Contrary to specific incidents in these areas managed to maintain workable groups and the armed forces, and industry. It is here now there have been severe ability to guarantee a country's strategic security for at least the coming 10-20 years. This event should be the main argument for making political decisions about the concentration of resources on core areas of security for the coming years. And then the value must be real.
The second step: to warn the upcoming "washout" Prof. personnel in the Armed Forces and the defense industry. Now the level of professionalism in the Armed Forces and the enterprises of the defense-industrial complex clearly not the difficulty of tasks to ensure the safety of the defense. Against the background of the current success of the army reform obscure more devastating blow received system of military training, military science. A number of military scientific research institute liquidated or reorganized in science centers with a significant decrease in the ability to research the military-technical problems. Markedly decreased ability of institutions Defense without the help of others to develop technical specifications for new standards of AME or at least equal positions to lead the interaction with civilians Institute. At the same time greatly weakened institution of the military office, which from the time of Peter was always a guarantee of the properties of the Russian guns. The problem of training and retention of highly qualified personnel in the armed forces an
d defense industry has become a major and without harsh measures at the level of active state policy not resolved. And the first example program need meaningful action to ensure the attractiveness and prestige of the service or work to ensure the safety of the defense.
Third step: required to take harsh measures to increase the level of mental development management and defense aircraft. This task is much more serious than the usual substitution of one frame to another. Examples of several successful companies defense caught ability to execute at the best possible standards of Western companies in the effective management of business, show how hard it is, but it is necessary. And if such a statement of defense industry enterprises tasks are no longer perceived as fictional, the Armed Forces of all the more difficult, though of course that developed over many decades of practice command and control aircraft is becoming increasingly inadequate difficult problems to be solved not by the number and skill.
4th step: to prevent the impending gap in the creation of products VTN need in the shortest possible time to transition defense companies on the 4th and 5th technological orders. This equally applies to both developing companies (transition to full automatic design of the current cycle — the system of 3D-design) and industrial. Of course, that this task is very capital intensive, and its solution is not "on" in the system of international relations is unreal, just as without the use of imported components base unimaginably creating modern pieces of AME. And such a practice should not only be a rare exception, as at the moment. With all this in parallel to produce measures that would exclude the situation where developers and manufacturers of defense products became hostages of suppliers of imported computer-aided design of devices or products and materials. Solving puzzles that could contribute to the creation of Centres of certification of imported products and materials devices to assess the possibility of using them in the systems and means of arms and military equipment and vehicles gallakticheskogo home and not on the orientation of the 1st, and several suppliers monotypical products. Now, these puzzles are solved in fragments, only in the form of individual personal examples that do not reflect the real state of affairs in the defense industry. Since ancient times there is a need to have a complete re-equipment program from the defense sectors of the industry, which is in alignment with the system of Prof. frames. Provided for the re-equipment of enterprises DIC three trillion rubles for the coming 20 years — the amount is large, but the effectiveness of its use will directly depend on how aggressively its use is linked to the values of AME Applets.
Here fundamentally see that one of the sources and the ability to implement the Company's transition defense by 4 and 5 technological orders may be the introduction of mental capacity created by Innovative Infrastructure (RUSNANO, the fund "Skolkovo", industrial parks, SEZ, research institutes). There is now an opportunity to translate the interaction with these institutions on a qualitatively new level. Not uncommon are situations where, for example, in research institutes are the real means of financing, but there is a lack of true knowledge-intensive tasks formulated. And here is just what alliances are likely to "enterprise university" on the basis of the latest superbly. One of the abilities of such alliances could be the solution to the classic challenges for defense companies — the inability to transform the mental capacity (skills, knowledge and reputation) in assets (licenses, rights of intellectual and accessories brands). In the criteria of such alliances may seem a real possibility of the use of civilian technologies for the defense industry, which is very critical in the criteria of a modern economy;
Step 5th: to implement the measures aimed at restoring the role of scientific and technical expertise in the area of the creation of projects of AME. Specifically, the restoration of the role, and not to increase it: now there is nothing to increase. Institute for opposing harsh, expert opinions to a risk assessment, a comparison of technical solutions — all this is a long-standing history faster than current practice. Not to mention the Interagency examination. Now everyone is talking about our most powerful arguments in the field of strategic nuclear forces — "Topol-M" and "Mace". But all this is not enough people know with what care and personal responsibility of each professional in 1997-1999 consisted of selecting these projects among other interdepartmental committee chaired by Academician NP Laverov. And it is possible to avoid errors that could lead to a fundamental strategic consequences. Now examples of this kind in fact.
As soon taken some steps to give the MIC is very fundamental for defense functions. Very limited function examination of scientific and technical projects doing now NTS at MIC. This in itself is fine, but his ability in that there is very limited. Institute of expertise in the defense industry should be an important element in the system of decision-making concerning the development of the military-industrial complex and the implementation of projects in the field of IWT. Such institution does not have to be countless, his task should be only to the organization of the examination process in the formation of an effective mechanism for the selection of professionals (peer organizations) and to determine the responsibility for the provision of low-quality reports. Such institution in their work should be based on mechanisms for sectoral and interagency expertise, an expert company that is independent of any indication starts to form. And obviously, the real expertise in today's criteria can not be just a matter of "public" — to realize it is necessary forms the respective budget.
Noticeable example of the formation of the expert community was the formation of non-commercial partnership "non-departmental advisory council on the dilemmas of air and space defense." And this is just the beginning. No hesitation is that if the smallest support this kind of initiative on the part of military-industrial complex, this problem can find a frisky and applicable solution.
The second step: essentially provide certainty in the funding of research and development in the interests of the Defense Ministry. This one of the main issues that determine the development of IWT, remains a complete confusion: repeatedly confirmed intrigued by the Ministry of Defense in the formation of a certain analogue of DARPA, but without any consequences, immediately stopped funding research that office. In turn, the Ministry of Industry also does not fund certain research and development, with no civilian implementation. So Makar, a vicious circle is not in favor of the defense capacity of the country. It remains to hope that the military industrial complex will not be indifferent to this dilemma and certainty will appear.
Step Seven: must be brought into line with the criteria of a modern economy system of contractual relations, first in the pricing of products of military-technical purpose. Inherited from the Soviet system of pricing for products VTN very negative impact on the state of defense companies. This system was based on the level of profitability established aggressive and "normative" average salary. This leads to the fact that in the years ahead becomes unprofitable to produce reduction in
the number of employees of companies defense by increasing the efficiency of their work and, on the contrary, stimulated by its buildup. Moreover, the system can not be linked with the increase in efficiency produced by AME and does not govern rassredotachivanie arising from all this risk. In this case, all the "normative" restrictions apply only to the head of performers that makes them hostages to advance co-authors of all levels.
In a more serious situation are companies that create particularly complex systems and systems which, because of their specificity or because of financial constraints does not provide replicate, and therefore to them it is impossible to use the mechanism of lowering the cost of series.
Without the applicable solutions prepyadstviya pricing on products VTN all the discussions on the reform of armed forces and defense industry may prove unproductive. "Basic" proposals aimed at creating a pricing system that is adequate to the current level of development of IWT and the market economy, justified and not once offered in the late 90's — early 2000's as the League of defense industries, as well as Department Head of the Ministry of Defense weapons. And they never (!) Does not become the subject of harsh debate nor the ministry nor the Finance Ministry nor the relevant committees of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly either. Clarifications have always been the standard, "It will lead to additional costs for the sun." Yes, of course. But soon it would lead to great savings capabilities for the country as a whole, and most importantly — would preserve the scientific and industrial-technological potential of the country.
At the moment, when the situation is brought to a complete nonsense, it is necessary to try to maintain and increase at least what's left. Unfortunately, the professionals of the highest level for this very specific and complex dilemma is not very much. Yet in the middle of defense industry workers has not gone unnoticed by the MIC verbovaniyu initiative to address this prepyadstviya professionals from leading scientific organizations and institutions. And it opens up a certain perspective.
This reality. And based on this reality, we need to find and search for solutions that would enable our country's defense system to provide security for the guaranteed level. The same task should meet the logic of military construction.