How to ease the crushing burden

He graduated from the summit in Lisbon, its results, taking in the Portuguese capital of the newest NATO strategy and prospects of creation Russia-NATO joint missile defense almost pushed to the second plan reports from the front of the war in Afghanistan. Although there occur very momentous actions that could affect the environment not only in Central Asia, and far beyond.

Legitimate target

West's Afghan campaign, which began October 7, 2001 U.S. forces lost — Afghanistan is in full agreement with Rudyard Kipling remains the "burden of snow-white man." South American army in accordance with the directives of President Barack Obama to be taken out of the country in 2011. Pentagon officials, commenting on the situation, called the other dates, in most cases — 2014 year. It is understood that only the Afghan army and police would be able to independently ensure the country's "law and order". But Afghan President Hamid Karzai said: Afghan security forces will need the direct support of Western troops in for at least 10-15 years.

How to ease the crushing burden

Afghan Army (ANA) at the current time, there were 113 thousand people. In 2011, its population is meant to bring to 171.6 thousand soldiers and officers. The personnel of the Police (ANP) in the same period will increase from 120.5 thousand to 134 thousand people. But the fighting capacity of the Afghan military and police, judging by their instructors, beneath criticism: the transition to the Taliban, desertion with the gun, and the role of the commission of the crimes of drug trafficking are widespread nature. Although the training of local security forces carried out since 2002, in the first half of 2010, only 10 staffs, 26 army battalions and several special units could without outside support to plan and do surgery to battalion level (degree of readiness CM1). 37 units could well act only with coalition troops (CM2), and 25 were unable to participate in such operations and training were held on (CM3).

The campaign in Afghanistan has revealed NATO's inability to win the war with the enemy, applying guerrilla and sabotage strategy. Now we can say that besides the Yankees real role in the fighting in Afghanistan was only the British, Canadians and Australian special forces. Most of the other members of the international contingent coalition ISAF (about 150 thousand soldiers and 100 thousand personal guards of the 46 states) played demonstratively representative role. For example, in contrast to the U.S. presence in Afghanistan was initially "crusade against terrorism", the Bundeswehr, as claimed by the official Berlin makes here "humanitarian mission" is not engaged in military operations, and training police, building roads and schools. However, for the Taliban and fighting with them militants "Al-Qaeda" (mostly Arabs, Chechens, Uzbeks, Tatars and Uyghurs) all soldiers ISAF — wrong, the occupiers on the land of Muslims and, as it should, legitimate target.

Military-political PR

Scale Islamists coming to the big Afghan town, including Kandahar and Kabul, it should be expected no earlier than 2011. In general, the only provinces now, absolutely free of Taliban presence and kaidistov are controlled by the Northern Alliance Tajik Panjshir and Badakhshan, which occupy less than 10% of the territory of Afghanistan. Nedavneshnie statements by U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, a South American corps commander in Afghanistan, General David Petraeus and CIA Director Leon Panetta about the defeat of the "Al Qaeda" is not justified. Last expands its activities in the historic "Khorasan", which includes Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Iran. In addition to the 55th 'Arab' Brigade, a more active unit in the region — led by Abdullah Saeed, "Lashkar al-Zil" ("Army of Shadows") operates on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, where there are over 160 training camps and bases of the "Black Guard "trainee bodyguards senior management" Al-Qaeda ". The organization joined the Taliban and kaidistov, having established a control zone ISAF «field practice" for militants of "Lashkar e-Toiba", "Tehrik Taliban Pakistan", "Hezb-e-Islami" Gulbuddin Hekmatyar (clan haroti Ghilzai tribe) and the "Haqqani" (Zadran tribe ).

In preparation for the care of the country, South American military, saving manpower, minimize the possibility of collisions with the Taliban. Touted in the media as victories operations in the provinces of Helmand and Kandahar have shown that military action in Afghanistan was replaced by the "military-political public relations." This strategy includes preparatory publication of information on the direction and the ultimate goal of "strike" (which allows you to spread out the militants), slowly moving towards it (in the way the Yankees and ANA remains a small number of fanatical extremists) and a triumphal occupation "under the camera" this or another town (preserving the surrounding area controlled by the Taliban.)

Together with this, even if you forget about the very significant losses of the Afghan army, coalition forces also have damage — first in "mine warfare". It is much greater than the number declared officially by the "work" of statistics that do not take into account a number of categories as a "combat deaths". The special theme — the rise in the number of suicide cases in the main among those who took at least one "trip to the war."

The specificity of real step is to build a coalition withdrawal of troops and the strengthening of its armored vehicles. The case in Afghanistan topped this year than 30 thousand fighter (of 40 thousand requested by General Stanley McChrystal, who retired on June 23 of this year, resigned after a controversial interview with harsh criticism of the country's top political control) languid 68-ton M1A1 Abrams tanks (formerly tanks used only the Danes and Canadians). Other members of the coalition of NATO nations have pledged to increment the number of ISAF to seven thousand people, including the German contingent to 850. While not intending to take part in the hostilities, the Bundeswehr rejected the introduction of Leopard 2 tanks in favor of the Swiss BMP Eagle IV and German Marder 1A5 with enhanced mine protection (special agreement on the transit of them were signed with Russia). German units stationed in Afghanistan, reinforced by South American TOW anti-tank missiles and Dutch self-propelled howitzers Mobat, whose task — to restrain the attackers on the far distance, as the Israeli Heron UAV 1. The Taliban started in response to the mass production of easy-to-use and effective booby trap IED with remote control, penetrates armor at a distance of 100 meters.

How to ease the crushing burden

Passive actions of the coalition, not seeking, as shown counterterrorism operation "Moshtarak" (February-March, Helmand) and "Shefaf" (March-April, the northern provinces), the real military advantages, destroy or displace the opponent and control over the territory, virtually ensured Taliban victory and kaidistam. The consequences of this
victory in the long term (not just in Afghanistan or Central Asia, and the Near and Middle East), more terrible than the fall of the euro or any other government or downgrade of the South American president. Some of them — large-scale terrorist attacks in Europe and the United States, the Islamist organizations around the world, increased terrorist activity in the Russian North Caucasus and the border with Afghanistan, former Soviet republics, the explosive growth of drug trafficking in this country, which is naikrupneyshim largest producer of opiates — just predictable. Others — namely, increased confrontation Shiite and Sunni radicalism, with the support of "their" part of Iran and Saudi Arabia — are not so clear, but more devastating.

It seems incomprehensible that a victory over the Taliban could not be reached by other means than those employed and used Taliban themselves. But the destruction or expulsion from their living areas of supporting them on the basis of a code of tribal solidarity of the population — a significant part of the Afghan Pashtuns, including the Ghilzai, which is a favorite of the movement "Taliban" Mullah Omar has not even had a chance to discuss. This is evidenced by the strong reaction of the public to publish on the website WikiLeaks 91,713 hidden materials on Afghanistan that provided the public the opportunity to get acquainted with the fact that in fact happened and is happening in his country. The question to what extent adopted in the modern world, the rules of war applicable to the enemy, which not bound by the rules and maintained a civilian population, remains unanswered.

The balance of power

It should be noted that the comparison of the current situation with the war in Afghanistan, which led to 80 years of the USSR, faster, in favor of Moscow. Russian troops really warfare, and showed no willingness to fight, financial assistance was to build real-world objects and road network, and not in spending the allocated funds (more than 80% of which does not reach Afghanistan), and the control of the territory was more effective than the ISAF. In the current situation of confrontation between the military (Pentagon) and civilian (Department of State) of the wings of the American administration, copied subordinates Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton "on the ground" with the United States has played a cruel joke, neutralizing pragmatists in favor of the theorists who are trying to introduce democracy in western Afghanistan type, just as barely acceptable to the local population, as socialism.

The Taliban are kept under the control of four-fifths of the area of the country. Terrorist attacks and rocket attacks carried out by them in all areas, formally subordinate to the Karzai government, including Kabul. Adventure through the passivity of the coalition forces, not even trying to damage the mountain trails are free to move across the Afghan-Pakistani frontier with the support of the Pashtun tribes of the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA). The only really valid tool to combat them, used ISAF, — drones. The introduction of UAVs for strikes against targets in Afghanistan and Pakistan has lowered the loss of the middle of the civilian population, but caused a very negative reaction of Islamabad, at the same time and political governance, and the military. As a consequence, with the growth of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan anti-Western sentiment transport corridor through which a disturbance is the main supply of the coalition forces, is under increasing threat. Which became in 2010 the practice of destruction on the ground in Pakistan convoys of fuel and other goods to Afghanistan — a "soft answer" Command of the Pakistani army to pressure Washington to his demands to "strengthen the fight against terrorism in Pakistan" and "insulting the small" financial and economic assistance Islamabad.

The campaign in Afghanistan has revealed NATO's inability to win the war with the enemy, applying guerrilla and sabotage strategy

Pakistan worries strengthening positions in Afghanistan conventional regional rival PRI — India. Divide active role in the reconstruction of Afghanistan's economy, trade and transit police training makes the danger of an Indian foothold in the north-western border of Pakistan. United States, despite the protests of Islamabad, welcomed the Afghan-Indian cooperation (as opposed to the Afghan-Iranian). The president Karzai to assure your own political and physical survival after the departure of the main forces of the coalition, is trying to establish strong ties with anyone who so wishes. Even with the "moderate" Taliban. Last, but ignored the Kabul "peace jirga", a role in which 2-4 of June 1600 was ready to work together with government delegates. But the Interdepartmental Intelligence of Pakistan (ISI) despite U.S. lobbying integration into the Afghan system of government representatives priklnnyh Islamabad Taliban "Kvettskoy shura" and the "Haqqani Network".

In the past year English (January 28) and Kabul (July 20) conference on Afghanistan Hamid Karzai provided opportunities necessary for dialogue (which critics consider surrender to the Taliban), including "Peace and Reintegration Programme in Afghanistan." Will he be able to use these opportunities — the question. After all, national reconciliation in Afghanistan is complicated not only the opposition of the Pashtuns to Tajiks and other ethnic minorities, and the split inside themselves Pashtun tribes in the middle of the Taliban dominated Ghilzais and Hamid Karzai — Durrani of Clan popolzay. The situation for Afghan President complicates the problem of refugees — a natural talent pool of the opposition. On the territory of Iran in September recorded more than 940 thousand Afghans who fled their homeland (their total population in Iran, according to professionals, surpasses 1.5 million). In Pakistan, the number of migrated here from Afghanistan is approaching 4 million. With all of this from Iran to Afghanistan since 2003, returned more than 1.8 million people, and of Pakistan (from 2002) — more than 3.5 million.

Karzai poised between Pakistan and standing (in the person of intelligence management, current President Asef Ali Zardari and his main rival Nawaz Sharif) at the beginnings of the creation of the movement "Taliban" and hitherto supportive business with him (along with the assurances in alliance with the United States), and India that the Taliban as the ruling regime never recognized. Contact the Afghan president to Tehran least high-strength. Iran is not interested in the return of "Taliban" to power and strengthening aggressive Shia "Al-Qaeda". In addition to cultural expansion in the area of its historical impact (Herat) Tehran supports in Afghanistan, the Shia Hazara leads (as well as our homeland) active in the fight against drug trafficking, and (along with PRI) Baluchi separatism. Another large regional player — China is interested first in the development of the natural resources of Afghanistan (received a 30-year concession for the extraction of copper in Aynakskoy plain), monitoring of drug trafficking and the elimination of Uighur separatists.

The government of Afghanistan is corrupt and unprofessional, most of the governors and senior officials receive a basic income from the production of drugs. In this openly accused brother of Hamid Karzai — the governor of Kandahar province, Ahmad Wali Karzai. The legitimacy of the parliament and the president is not clear, and the support of the population is small. Already in the elections of the country in 2009 was revealed falsification 1.1 million ballots cast for President Karzai. According to the results of the parliamentary elections of 201
0, during which about 2.5 thousand candidates competed for 249 seats in the House of the People (Wolesi Jirga) — the lower house of the Afghan Parliament, had to cancel a quarter of the votes. Attempting to enter the United States in Afghanistan, the principles of modern democracy has failed.

On the eve of departure of coalition forces from Afghanistan and the termination of currency flows, Hamid Karzai, despite the precariousness of their situation, and perhaps specifically for this reason, defiantly demanding patrons and donors. At the NATO summit in Lisbon, he wrangled with Barack Obama, accusing 1.5 thousand employees of the South American Embassy in Kabul that they act as a structure-independent imperative, demanding to cancel parts of NATO night raids in search of Taliban and foreign professionals to pass under the control of his government. "Put on the spot," the U.S. President Karzai failed, but the redistribution of donor support in its favor, he has headed for. If London was pledged for Afghanistan until 2011, 10.5 billion dollars, of which 30% deducted at the disposal of the control of the country, in Kabul, Karzai insisted that his government had received 50% of the 11 billion dollars allotted by "the implementation of the development strategy the state of the economy. " Note that at the Paris Conference in 2008 the Afghan government requested from donors more than 50 billion dollars, 29.8 billion of them — "for rehabilitation and construction of roads, agriculture, education and health care." Meanwhile, 40 billion dollars received in 2002-2009 at the disposal of Karzai and his associates from the international financial institutions, just disappeared.

Moscow's interests

Minimize the loss of our homeland in this area, having written off Kabul 11.2 billion dollars of debt on outstanding loans Soviet military and clearing payments, also passing the Afghan Ministry of Interior 20 thousand machines and more than 2 million rounds of ammunition. It must be stressed that the complication of the situation in Afghanistan has advanced considerably cooperation with Moscow, Brussels, interested in securing a long stay in the alliance Irina troops. The increased importance of the Russian Federation for the transit of goods to Afghanistan as worsening problems in the Pakistan route and constructive cooperation with Russia in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia explain the positive shifts in the position of USA and NATO as a whole with regard to the role of Russian Federation in the collective defense, and in the future, may to be, and in the system of collective security in Europe.

Agreement to enhance the joint struggle of the Russian Federation and NATO Afghan drug trafficking — another direction, which throughout the period of the "war on international terrorism" coalition forces ignored. Deliveries of opiates on the world market (as cannabis) — the main source of funding is not only corrupt Afghan authorities, and acting on its territory of terrorist organizations. But over the years, the development calls for Moscow to stop Afghan drug trade were ignored by Washington and Brussels. The evidence that the situation has changed, was held in Afghanistan at the end of October, with the participation of the respective departments of the Russian Federation and the U.S. special operation during which were eliminated morphine and three heroin laboratories, destroyed more 900 kg of heroin and more than 150 kg of opiates.

Ultimately, no matter what happened to play a role of in the cooperation with the Central Asian Republics, the United States, NATO or individual countries within the Union to stabilize the situation in Afghanistan — is quite in line with the public interest of our country. Much less that the Russian troops in Afghanistan will not be oriented in any criteria, as stated control of the country. And it is — the main thing.

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