In May 2012, Viktor Yanukovych will go to yet another visit to Moscow. To understand what can "bring" from this trip the president of Ukraine, it is necessary to make out what was expected of him in the Kremlin, what can go Yanukovych, and what not, and why.
First, it should be noted that the management of the Russian Federation has long made its offer Ukraine and add to them is nothing special. It is about the privatization of Ukrainian gas transportation system, Ukraine's accession to the Customs Alliance and the Common Economic place with a view of the forthcoming entry of Ukraine into the Eurasian Alliance. This is a strategic task of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, the solution of which will dedicate its own third presidential term. Only affirmative Viktor Yanukovych on issues of fundamental importance to the Russian Federation will allow to count on lowering gas prices, the arrival of Russian investments in Ukraine, and the personal support of Yanukovych, Vladimir Putin. And now she needs Yanukovych as ever.
It should also be emphasized that in the middle of Ukrainian management there is some weird misunderstanding that domestic prepyadstviya Ukraine does not relate to the Russian Federation and their decision to pay for its own account, it's not going to. For example, the problem of the Russian language should worry mainly Ukrainian self management, as well as to raise its head Ukrainian nationalism. Our home can show concern for the situation of the Russian majority (most specifically) in the Ukraine, but less so. Similarly, in tenth place on the agenda of day or issues of personal investors, whose interests are often trying to infringe on Ukraine. The point here is that a similar policy is at odds with the global rules of the game and exacerbates the already low level of vkladyvatelnoy attractiveness of Ukraine.
Certainly, Russian control trevozhut prospects of Ukraine's rapprochement with the European Union and NATO, but the Kremlin is clearly understood that the Ukrainian pro-Western policy management has, at first, the Ukrainian president. The voter southeast and Crimea does not support any European integration, nor how much more cooperation between Ukraine and NATO against Russia. In fact, the "European integration Yanukovych" and the sample due to its bargain for certain privileges in the Kremlin look stupid. To experience the consequences of unpopular steps should be the one who solves them.
Certainly, in the Kremlin Yanukovych may justify the impossibility of Ukraine's accession to the Customs Alliance and the Common Economic Place the lack of consensus in the Ukrainian society to integrate with Russia, and these arguments are looked awkward. Yanukovych came to power under the slogan of development of good-neighborly relations with Russia. Entry Ukraine the CU and the CES is performing his own campaign promises. This is a technical issue, as well as what the Party of Regions will assure the Western Ukrainian electorate of the benefits of integration with Russia. All the more surprising words can be that the entry of Ukraine into the Customs Union and Common Economic Space will not support the Ukrainian parliament. They will support everything you need to Party of Regions and Yanukovych personally, if not sincere, then South American banknotes from the love that they once justified in voting for the desired regionals laws. It would be a desire to have Yanukovych building bridges of friendship with Russia, but it is not. On the contrary, in the Ukraine last annoying propaganda of so-called "European choice". In other words, if Yanukovych and prevent something to fulfill his campaign promises, that are not nationalists and russophobes, and he and the staff of his administration.
So Makar, a set of arguments, Viktor Yanukovych, who Tipo deter him from making a decision on Ukraine's accession to the Customs Union and Common Economic Space, looks unconvincing. Equally unconvincing is the proposal to change the management Ukrainian prices for Russian gas, which Tipo surpass average European prices. Excuse me, but in the past 7 years, specifically Ukraine was the pioneer of the revision of all contracts for gas. Who povinet that Ukrainian negotiators in their own calculations often made mistakes and in signing gas contracts in 2009 came from the likely fall in energy prices? Especially since, after all these gas wars, another attempt to revise gas contracts looks like unacceptably extravagant whim of the child. In general, long time to realize that certain statements of Ukrainian authorities designed for internal use and outside of Ukraine only cause confusion sincere stupidity of their creators. Russia is not worried, why Ukrainian consumers can not pay the prevailing gas prices, it is difficult Ukrainian government.
Without reciprocal steps on the part of Ukraine, Our homeland is not going to revise gas contracts. The aggressive policy of Ukrainian management in recent years makes unenforceable any concessions on the part of, on the contrary, gives the right to act against Yanukovych and the Party of Regions as tough and all available political, financial and economic resources, which include the so-called "trade war." Reasons for them abound in the Russian Federation. Further weakens the position of Viktor Yanukovych in the Moscow talks autumn parliamentary elections in Ukraine, the results of which are not visible, as it seems at first glance.
Russian control well acquainted about the mood in the Ukrainian society. The Kremlin knows that Party Regions each month loses its electoral support, and their victory in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of the fall of 2012 can only be achieved at the expense of administrative resources and the creation of a virtual risk entering Parliament constructive Nationalist Party in "Freedom." In other words, in fact, political strategists expect from the Party of Regions does not capture the voice of the voter on the results of its activities for the previous period, and due to the danger of intimidation of voters nationalist revenge. Other circumstances vote for the Party of Regions in Ukraine not. Most likely, before the election will be initiated provocations constructive nationalists power demonstrate its power, revealing punish them, and the voter is left with no best, as to vote for the regionals. This scenario distinction between "us" and "them"
always worked flawlessly in the Ukraine.
The situation is radically changed if the fall elections to the Verkhovna Rada will not be considered "global democratic community," Ukrainian authorities accused of massive fraud and would need to re-election, it is obvious to the complete victory of the opposition, as it was in 2004. In my opinion, the hype about the "Tymoshenko case" all just an excuse to put pressure on Yanukovych and the Party of Regions, to discredit them in the eyes of society, with a view to the forthcoming removal from power of substitution and to moderate nationalists. In the West, well aware that the Ukrainian party, who are now in opposition, under any criteria will not go for a rapprochement with Russia and with the coming to power will continue to engage in demagoguery on the entry of Ukraine into Europe. Only if European integration Yanukovych was at odds with his campaign promises, for "postoranzhevyh politicians" do not. How does the Party of Regions, the changer will solve the financial and economic difficulties of Ukraine, no one was worried.
If the West really made a bid for the removal from power of the Party of Regions, behind which is likely to be followed by the impeachment of President Yanukovych and the full transfer of all power to the opposition, it is only to support the future of the Russian Federation is now incumbent. The question arises, why the Kremlin to support unpopular and discredited policies?
Our homeland would support Yanukovych just a 2-cases, if he had a policy of not contrary to the interests of the Kremlin, and used the support of the majority of the population of Ukraine. All this, as I wrote above, no. For what RF confrontation with the West and to recognize the elections as valid? And if neither the West nor our homeland nor the Ukrainians do not support the existing regime, then hold on to power he has no chance. As for the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Security Service, and then they, in view of the sad experience of 2004 in the case of the "Orange Revolution-2" will take a wait and see attitude, because perfectly know that immediately confront the West and Russia Ukrainian management is not able to. Yanukovych and protect his family, knowing that the oligarchs still succumb to pressure from the West and Russia, no one will. Ukraine is not Russia, but Yanukovych Lukashenko. As can be seen in real time of the Russian Federation need not Yanukovych, and Yanukovych need our homeland as the only country able to support him in a difficult moment.
In Russia understands that a hypothetical rise to power of the nationalists in the end will only strengthen the RF the Ukraine. If until 2010 the Russian regions of Ukraine voted for pro-Russian candidate, then disappointed in him, they will be louder and sharper advocate for full and unquestioning integration of Ukraine and Russia. If the Kiev authorities are not able to protect their rights and interests, the Russian citizens of Ukraine will appeal particularly to Moscow. The arrival of the nationalists to power, even if moderate, could eventually end in uncontrollable processes of disintegration of Ukrainian country.
Hard to say, guess whether the Administration of the President of Ukraine on the likely prospects for the loss of power by 2013, but it's totally real. As I described the scenario will be realized depends almost everything and of Viktor Yanukovych, and a meeting with Vladimir Putin. It is not often the case, when the interests of the Russian Federation and the interests of the Ukrainian elites are the same, but it seems that the real moment came this particular case. Unambiguous decision on Ukraine's accession to the EEA and the vehicle that can take Yanukovych at the May meeting in Moscow will allow not only to solve the financial and economic prepyadstviya Ukraine, and return the lost trust of the voter to the Party of Regions, which is equivalent to preserve their power. What's it for today's Ukrainian elites the main argument in accepting all the decisions.
Most importantly, it must recognize the Ukraine is that it is impossible to achieve concessions from the Russian Federation, if you stand to her ass. Pay out of their own pockets European integration of Ukraine in Moscow no one is going, as well as to maintain its political spending.