The situation surrounding the nuclear programs from heating up by the day. In the Persian Gulf South American fleet strength increases. Maintain full sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran has become a fact. Tehran is preparing to resist, including the military. Meanwhile, the continuing tensions in the Middle East is very profitable of, as it supports the highest oil prices and, in fact, is sponsoring its imperial ambitions. Will all the same war in Iran? Perhaps, today — is the most important issue in world politics.
• «A comprehensive assessment of the situation around Iran show that the situation around this Islamic country develops intense — commented Sergey Grinyaev, Ph.D., CEO of the Center for Strategic assessments and forecasts. — There is every reason to believe that the recent trend continues at its forthcoming exacerbation. Almost everything now depends on the development of the situation in Syria — a fundamental ally of Iran in the region. Coupled with the fact the summer today, the separation can occur. "
— What scenario, in your opinion, will develop a solution "Iranian" question?
• I believe that the conflict will occur more rapidly between Israel and Iran, than between the U.S. and Iran. Although, of course, the U.S. will not leave its own ally, and will assist, as was the case in Libya, the Pentagon formally chose to remain on the sidelines. The reason for this — the proximity of the presidential election campaign in the United States.
• In recent years, we see the implementation of the strategic plan of reorganization of the world, caused by changes to the underlying reality of life under the influence of a number of key reasons: proximity to the exhaustion of hydrocarbon resources, the rapid development of information technology, transforming the global economy and world money and some others.
• One of the goals of this plan, as it is seen, is the establishment of control over the main hydrocarbon fields. Another goal is to reformat the geopolitical map of the new world, in which role should be distributed differently than on the map "developed imperialism» XX century — now need a different configuration of geopolitical centers, if in the last century.
• Specifically for this reason we look so dramatic painting in other parts of the world — in Europe. This geopolitical center does not fit in the modern world view. He is very attached to diminishing the supplies of oil and gas, which makes it very manageable suppliers of hydrocarbons.
— Means war unprofitable Europe. But as it is independent in their own decisions, or, as usual, will do what utter in the U.S.?
• Over the years the EU as a mechanism for control of one of the geopolitical centers were formed and mechanisms to control himself. This, by the way, "signature" style of the British Empire by the "Great Game" — forms the situation so that to the extent necessary to be able to change it later if something goes wrong. Example — India-Pakistan border or on the African continent, drawn by not without a role in Britain and has generated a lot of regional conflicts.
• The legal framework of the EU in the years formed the Cool War under the gaze of the United States and England specifically to consolidate efforts in the event of an emergency. And it is not possible to think about the independence of EU action in the stringent criteria of the current situation.
• It turns out that now, these mechanisms are involved. Under the influence of Russian and Iranian supply of raw Europe becomes more compliant with their suppliers, which raises fluctuation leadership role of the U.S. and NATO, and in fact even ahead of China. I believe that in recent years we will witness today Chertovskikh transformations design under the title "EU". But it's a slightly different topic.
— What Europe will be able to change the supply of Iranian oil?
• In the short run may be to increase the supply of hydrocarbons from a number of Gulf states, Libya, Algeria and Iraq. But the main supplier, of course, will be our home — the other is so obvious (at first — because of existing transport infrastructure) nominations yet.
• It is no coincidence already taken diplomatic measures to strengthen control over Central Asian resources whose access to the market as in the past is dependent on Russia. By the way, such acts will lead both to the forthcoming EU-Russian rapprochement, which fits into the overall plan to eliminate the EU as a geopolitical power, because will allow to strengthen intra-European conflicts and to speed up the destruction of the system.
— Why is the U.S. so pushy? Case in geopolitics and in pursuit of their own economic and financial interests?
• The United States on his own nature and his own role in the modern world are interested in fueling at least some of the conflict, at least some of the planet, but he would not directly affect "the vital interests of the principal," the United States. It so happened that in the criteria impermanence of the world monetary capital prefers to "take refuge" in the dollar under the protection of U.S. aircraft carrier connections. So "for whom the war, and for whom — dear mother."
• The situation in the States themselves are not flawless, but the instability of the world makes them relatively more attractive than other economies of the world, which leads to an increase in the flow vkladyvatelnogo so desired power-hungry U.S. economy.
• In addition, the work in the criteria of impermanence — American Pipit (I'd even said, the Anglo-Saxon) diplomacy. The indisputable achievement of recent decades is that organically managed cooperate huge advantages of information technology (Internet, social networks, etc.) and the classic "multi-pass" British diplomacy. Now we look at the practical application of this creation.
• The way the foreign policy strategy implemented by the United States maintain dominance in the criteria of a changing world, there is not nothing like the "information blitzkrieg." Its essence is that the United States can not impose and maintain such pace for various kinds of action that is not acceptable for any of the other parties — party events.
• Remember 1941. Why is the smallest German army succeeded in the first few months actually defeat the reddish Army with great potential to? Specifically because it has a greater mobility (both technical and managerial) German army was able to impose and maintain such pace of, first, strategic operations, which was unacceptable to the Red Army.
• We now look virtually the same act, but on the new technological level — often for many acts we are obliged to respond after the fact, rather than ahead of.
• More fundamentally, and that by taking these or other operational steps, the United States has always remained on the chosen course once — global dominance should remain with them. And there may be things worth seeing — former allies who have become a burden to the new criteria, simultaneously rejected and approaching those who yesterday were seen as irreconcilable opponents (which, incidentally, is also recognizable Anglo-Saxon reception).
— Let's go back to the "Iranian issue". What is the role in this conflict, China and India — a huge consumer of Iranian oil. Without their sanctions against Iran are unlikely to be effective.
• Sanctions against Iran — it is stil
l a tool against Europe, not against China, India or the Land of the Rising Sun. As for China, it will make up for a shortfall again through Russia, Turkmenistan and Vietnam. For India situation indeed be difficult. But it is also in the script, "The Great Game."
• If India does not get fully make up for the loss and this will lead to a lowering of the economy, it will be an additional incentive escalation of tensions with Pakistan, which is an already seething in recent months.
— The worsening situation in the Russian Federation will be profitable or we will lose more after the onset of the global recession due to the sharp rise in oil prices?
• The situation is so makarom that the complication of the situation for Russia profitably. We really need an expensive oil (and gas too). In particular, we will need it in the second half of this year — taken now require pre-election promises of social severe cash infusion, and the funds in the economy is not so little. Neglect will lead to future growth and the already tense social situation in the country.
• High oil prices somewhat evens the situation, but it will only support the economy in the coming six months, which will further — it is difficult to predict. Previous experience indicates that in the absence of real modernization of the economy however was not the highest value at energoelementy, its an every day is not enough: oil and gas Needle works exactly like a needle junkie …
— Our homeland Iran are neighbors on the Caspian Sea. There are transport links, including oil and gas. Do not put the emergence of a large armed conflict under their danger? How can develop general situation in the region in case of attack on Iran?
• We are neighbors with Iran (in contrast to the U.S. and EU member states). There's no escape. Moreover, the role and importance of the Caspian region with the passage of time will only increase. Specifically for this reason that now our homeland and Iran on the Caspian Sea, faster, not just neighbors, but rivals for supremacy in the region. Our homeland in recent years seriously lost its position here, but they boosted Iran.
• Again, the same is not accidental seen an escalation of tension in the region in recent months. Turkmen and Uzbek gas — really want the product to the European market. As for the development of the situation in the region recently probable deterioration of the situation in Iran, I would have directed attention to the follow-up. USA under the guise of withdrawing from Iraq had redeployed its own ground forces. Lasts severe pressure on Syria.
• Fluctuating Turkey aggressively put in place by France, immediately changed the picture of preferences in the Caucasus. Activated by the Kurds, both in Turkey and in northern Iraq. Kazakhstan shocked with a series of "popular" shows. Uzbekistan received additional preferences to the United States, as well as Kyrgyzstan, which does not ask for the withdrawal of U.S. bases from its territory.
• Afghanistan transformed over the years into a powerful U.S. military bridgehead in the region — the number of U.S. / NATO bases per unit area it has no equal in the world. The cases of targeted killings main figures in the scientific and military-political environment of Tehran. So, in fact, is all set to rage against Iran — a country cushioned on all sides, leaving only some "cosmetic" acts of diplomats and spies for the end of the story.
— What is in this light look foreign policy acts of, as in the case of prevention of armed conflict, and in case it starts?
• As I mentioned above, Iran for Russia in recent years has transformed from a uniformly mate in the opponent's dominance in the fundamental geopolitical region of the Caspian Sea. But this is more guilty of Russia itself, which in recent years has spent sluggish foreign policy in Central Asia and the Caspian region, often not having its own strategic eye on the development of the region. This, incidentally, is also seen certain enthusiasm — a conflict with the role of Iran would inevitably lead to a drop in its role in the region for at least a couple of years, which, of course, in the interests of Russia.
• At the same time, the change of the current regime in Tehran to Moscow more bad because it would further complicate the situation for Russian companies in the global energy market. Moscow still take Iran as a partner in solving a number of fundamental yourself energy projects in the region. Although Iran on this issue preferred to pursue "their game." A good example of this — repeated statements about Iran's launch of its oil and gas exchanges in the economic zone on the peninsula of Kish, while refusing to pricing of energoelementy for dollars U.S..
• But the question remained unresolved — as long as no one can damage the U.S. hegemony in the pricing of strategic raw materials (including, by the way, and Russia itself). At the time, Iraq's attempt to abandon the oil trade from the U.S. dollar has served as an important stimulus to the U.S. and NATO aggression against the country.
• In the case of prevention of conflict by peaceful means, the Russian Federation will have to dramatically increase the foreign policy efforts in the region, because seriously militarized Iran would pose a severe threat has economic interests in the region. As for foreign policy steps, over the past few years we have been (and time) the case to behold as it is going to happen.
• In the event of conflict, the birthplace of our attempts to use the mechanisms available to it on the band several international organizations, the UN first. But the impact of these actions will be insignificant — maybe get a little pull isolation, but less. Once again we hear the brilliant performance of our representative at the UN, but not in his power to influence the situation. If the decision of an attack on Iran would be accepted, Our homeland will not be able to prevent it. Moreover, the domestic political situation is forcing more attention and effort given situation inside the country, and not the outside.
• The only force that can now have a significant impact on the situation, is China. Moreover, the guidelines of their own policies in this regard it has already outlined, saying that will be required to enter into a conflict in the case of aggression against Iran because it considers itself inadmissible likely economic and political losses. I think that at the moment there is a big trade with China. And, as often is the case, the likelihood of sudden moves, for example, Taiwan will be handed over in exchange for loyalty to Iran …
— What is the fate of the Bushehr nuclear power plant in the event of a conflict, and can suffer if our citizens working at the station.
• The role of nuclear power as the 1st part of the Iranian nuclear infrastructure would be unflattering — it will be destroyed, even though the reactors will remain intact — the radioactive area of infection is not in the interest of even the aggressors.
• How Russian staff working at the station, and the staff of the embassy of the conflict will not be affected. We provide an experience of the Russian Federation to withdraw from their own people under threat, so that in this time the MOE will work as "excellent."
• The question, of course, in the other — what will be the picture of the world, if the hawk eyes will prevail in the policy of the United States, and the instinct of self-preservation of Israel out of control, leading to the outbreak of aggression against Iran? The answer to this question we will know quite soon …
— The first violin will play Israel?
• Western countries no longer convinced that Israel can not help others to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, quotes the French Le Figaro InoPressa. The crisis caused by the Iranian nuclear program that takes a critical phase. In Mon, 23 J
anuary, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed the European embargo as "a step in the right direction," but he also warned that "sanctions should evolve as the merits of the results."
"Despite the secret war, during which killed four Iranian nuclear scientists, explosions were made at military installations, there have been a virus attack on computers that support the operation of companies to enrich uranium, Tehran continues to implement its nuclear program from and, in the views of the majority of professionals already recently able to develop nuclear weapons. "
• The Western countries, and at first the Americans fear that the Israelis can cause sudden pre-emptive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities than provoke a full-blown crisis in the Middle East.
• «Israel calls the" red line "the possibility of unexpected acceleration (a nuclear Iran) utilities that Americans believe that this feature is not near, — said the head of the last Israeli intelligence Amos Yadlin in an interview with the Israeli newspaper Maariv. — United States — a global power and a strategic capabilities that are not available in Israel. " Israel takes Iran's nuclear program from the problem of not as diplomatically as a danger to the existence of their own, the article says …
• «According to the British weekly Sunday Times, during a telephone conversation between Netanyahu and South American President Barack Obama, Israeli Prime Minister refused to rule out an attack against Iran, promising to put Washington in the fame of his own plans in 12 hours, in other words, at the last minute with a diplomatic and military points of view, "- writes the creator of the article in Le Figaro InoPressa.