Our homeland has attended to expanding its business in the Caucasus. By this method it wishes to regain its former impact in the countries of the region. Similarly, do the other powers of the world — through investments, business, trade, they make their exposure.
Administration of the President of the Russian Federation wants to discover the extent of the role of Russian capital in the economy of the Transcaucasian states and realize can be whether to expand its presence. Namely, it is about republics such as Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan. The study of the situation will control for Interregional and Cultural Relations with zabugornom countries under the Russian president.
According to the results of research will be a strategy for promoting the interests of the Russian Federation in the Transcaucasian region, taking into account economic factors and inter-regional cooperation between the countries. The Kremlin wants to prepare a general plan for the region as a whole and personal — for each country.
Even in totality, the region looks very poor. Thus, Armenia's GDP was $ 20 billion. bucks, Georgia — 24 billion., Azerbaijan — 94 billion. (Total — 138 billion. dollars). For comparison, a similar level of GDP in Hungary — 130 billion., and in Romania — and quite 161 billion. bucks.
But on the geopolitical importance of the South Caucasus to the Russian Federation is one of the first places. There are ways of transporting oil. Caucasus — is a buffer in the way of brutal Islam (as Kazakhstan as such — in Asia). The Armenian diaspora is the second in the world in the art of lobbying (after Jewish) in superpowers such as the U.S. and France. In the end, playing the role of such a pragmatic factor: proizoydi in some of these states plainclothes War (this scenario is likely in Azerbaijan) or war between neighbors (the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh — until now a smoldering conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia) — Russia will rush in and weave thousands of refugees from the region.
Specifically, through the economy of the world's leading powers have now impact for most countries (usually low and moderately). Back in 2001, economists Valery Galitsky (when he was deputy. Chairman of the Russian State Statistics Committee) and Sergei Popov made a methodology for determining the impact of the economic zones or other countries. It included a range of features (more than 30), among which, that is, were such as the fraction of imports from the country of "overlord", the level of direct investment, imports technology, the number of students enrolled in the "mother country", etc. For example, we show that the strong dependence of the threshold from one country to another is 20% of total imports and 25% of foreign direct investment.
Following the procedure of Galician-Popov turned out that in the world there are only 4 superpowers: the United States, France, Germany and Japan. Also, these regional powers: Our homeland, Spain, South Africa and Brazil. It is interesting that China was not among even regional powers. Also, in any or another list was UK. The researchers also separately allocate Italy as a nation on the move to a regional power (in the Mediterranean).
Galician and Popov made a retrospective analysis that has proved that in 1985 the Soviet Union on a global scale, too, was a superpower (and not only by degrees glow military machine) — approximately at the level of modern France.
The largest jump in 20 years did Germany. Moreover, the degree of its influence continues to grow, and if they go down, then in 2025 in an economic sense, it will be the "mother country» № 1, beating the United States.
In the meantime, the economic impact zone of Germany looks like this:
The researchers concluded that the behavior in the international arena increasingly Our homeland is similar to Spain, Brazil and South Africa. All four countries have much in common in geopolitical terms: the ambience of the underdeveloped countries, or, as in Spain, such as underdeveloped former colonies. Ethnic community (South Africa, Spain and Latin American countries). Political will and the desire to lead.
Then Galitsky and Popov wrote that our homeland while providing their impact its dependency on the world only through trade. A factor such as an investment, it is not used (very low and the level of technology exports, foreigners studying in Russian universities and cultural influence — namely, lobbying for the use of the Russian language in most areas of life dependent states). But specifically investment — that is what our home would increase very rapidly.
On the other hand, the Russian Federation should be prepared that the government dependent and semi-dependent countries may try to reduce its impact. Galician and Popov wrote that this is — a global trend, first for states trying to play its own game in their region and to escape from the clutches of the superpowers. As an example they cite Pakistan. Shred imports from the Land of the Rising Sun for 10 years fell from 16% to 9%, Germany with 8.5% to 5.5% — no country now has to import more than 12% of Pakistan. Not surprisingly, now that Pakistan claims to be a regional power (though these ambitions are not supported economically, and only export "instability" — through their own fighters to India, Afghanistan, Indonesia, etc.).
In general, the environment in the middle of, in its area of today and the potential impact of such fundamental states do not. Even if someone breaks out of the range of the Russian Federation, their fate remains the same — to be a semi-colony of another power. As such, it came out with the Baltic states, who left under the full control of Germany.