On the coming week, we will celebrate the 92nd anniversary of those events. Fortunately, we can celebrate this date in a free country, which was safe. But times country We are free, we can use this freedom and a little game of «political fiction». How would look now Polish-Russian war? Below, we outline three scenarios are hypothetical.
War of the impact
It's hard to wait, so first of the second decade of the XXI century Our homeland has suddenly decided to fulfill their dream to create a native of large pan-Slavic countries, managed from Moscow, and performed with his own army to the side of the Vistula. Times have changed and are not the same capacity. A possible conflict in the plane of our days are — it seems to be a struggle for influence. The conflict, the role of which — do not take control of a hostile state, and to strengthen their position in it and maybe weaken its power. Our home does not avoid similar incidents. Confirmation — the war with Georgia in 2008. Moscow's goal was not about to take control of their own this former Soviet republic, but only in the fact that it to loosen: irritated the Kremlin defiantly pro-American and anti-Russian policy alternately President Misha Saakashvili, because Moscow has decided to put a halter on her. But it lasted a few days do not clash over Russian occupation of Georgia. The Kremlin had the secession of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, he decided that such clicks on the nose Saakashvili will be quite a hundred percent and withdrew its troops from Georgian countryside.
Polish-Russian war over spheres of influence would have probably another character than the clash of 2008. In Georgia, the Russians moved in tanks, sent an army there and languid technique. "In the case of Poland, we most likely would have faced sabotage Russian special forces or with surgically-precise missile strikes on strategic targets in our country, for example," Petrochemicals "in Plock" — the employee of the Warsaw Institute of General Boleslaw Balcerowicz (Boleslaw Balcerowicz). Such actions could be targeted only to weaken Poland, their goal was not to capture our country.
War of the countryside
Robert Kaplan (Robert Kaplan), analyst tank Stratfor released not so long ago the book "The Revenge of Geography," in which introduced the idea that the main driving force behind the global configuration conflicts are on the map. In other words, if a boundary has been moved once, at some point in its new location may be a precursor of a military clash. In turn, the head of Kaplan in Stratfor George Friedman blasts in three years back the book "The Next 100 Years", wrote that in the years 2020-2050 financial situation in Russia will be quite desperate and would have to put an armed attack on their neighbors, as the Kremlin otherwise be able to ensure the functioning of the tremendous country. If both of these statements were correct, the war between Poland and Russia would be inevitable, and it would be a real war, in other words this with what we dealt with in earlier centuries — from the struggles and attempts to occupy the enemy terrain.
If we analyze the potential of the Russian army, it can be concluded that such traditional war not be very different from the conflicts of the XX century. Under President Medvedev Our homeland has announced constructive modernize its army, but so far all the promises and over. The most advanced Russian weapons — this class submarines "Antey", but they are in a war with Poland, just might not be very useful.
In addition to "Anthea" Our homeland does not have any technique that she would be permitted to deviate from the strategy that brought success in the second world war: the battle of throwing such a huge number of fighter, which the enemy would not be able to stop.
Russians with all this helps geography. They would knock on our country with 2-sides: from the Kaliningrad region and Belarus friendly terrain. We would have remained only place that we can survive two or three weeks, and then to help podospeyut NATO allies. History teaches us that it is best with allies goes on joint photo made at the next summit, but still, there is reason to believe that they remember what happened in the 1939th when they did not help us.
Let me remind you that all of these considerations — from the category of political fiction. And since this is a game, why not see it in a scenario in which she attacked Poland on Russia? Such an option is as possible as the one that we have to defend against the Russian army. Polish invasion could occur, for example, in the situation, if the Kremlin tried to make a military invasion of the Baltic states: Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia. These three countries are members of NATO, and at the time of such strike would enter into force on the 5th article of Washington contract, which states that an attack on the 1 st of the other members of the Alliance commits to assist him. Poland — in this case a proximal neighbor which due to natural events would come to the rescue of all the faster.
What do we have? In 1-x, 48 F-16 aircraft, which conduct regular training on the Baltic and may prove very effective weapon in the war itself, especially because the Russians aircraft of this class is not much. But other offensive weapons we have — not so much. The strategy of the Polish armed forces provides for purchase of equipment that improves the mobility of our army will be more recognizable for Afghanistan and Iraq, "Wolverine" and other armored vehicles, and unmanned aerial vehicles (they are already in service with NATO) and helicopters. Maybe moving briskly around the arena fighting stunningly trained military units might be able to pin down the numerous forces of Russians.
And yet the game is coming up with hypothetical scenarios of the Polish-Russian war, no tunes to life-affirming way. We — not very many benefits to reflect this conflict without fear. If it happened, we would have to come from those same advantages as in 1920: more than the highest morale, determination in the battle, the best strategy and the well-known bit of happiness. First is the hope that the time the usual confrontations finally a thing of the past. "Every civilization — its wars. In the era of civilization information war will be developed for the information, "- emphasizes the general Balcerowicz. The magic of the Vistula was made possible also because we were able to unravel the Russian ciphers, and because of that, we knew in advance about the movements of the Red Army. During the second world war, the Poles were able to open the "Enigma". So it may be, the War of the information would be for us and this is really terrible?