Mankind has entered in 2011: We confirm our worst fears

Important and exciting information to the Chairman of the International Committee GEOCHANGE Prof. EN Khalilov, concerning the possible development of events in the environment in 2011, transferred to the Information Agency WOSCO.

Important Information President of the International Committee GEOCHANGE Prof. EN Khalilov, a data, the Agency WOSCO 19.01.2011

Elchin Nusratovich finally ended in 2010, called by many the year of natural disasters and mankind entered in 2011. What can be expected from the nature of this year?

2011 started a series of strong earthquakes: January 01, with a magnitude of 7.0 in the province of Santiago del Estero, Argentina, 02 January with a magnitude of 7.1 and 10 January with a magnitude of 6.0 off the coast of central Chile, January 12, with a magnitude of 6.5 near of Japan's Bonin Islands, and 18 January from 7.2 magnitutoy in Pakistan.
January 4 to activate one of the largest and most dangerous volcanoes in Italy — Mount Etna. (Photo:

Continued major flooding in Australia, began flooding in Germany — Melting snow and heavy rain led to the fact that the country's major rivers burst their banks. Dozens of cities already were under water. There are reports of casualties. Which began in late December 2010 floods in Brazil, has become even more extensive in early January 2011 and by January 13 of this flooding and accompanying landslides have killed more than 480 people in the flood zone were the largest city of São Paulo has a population of about 20 million people, and the region Serrana, north of Rio de Janeiro and the city of Teresopolis.

According to our estimates the world has entered an active phase of natural disasters in 2011 and it will last until 2015, after which the expected decline in geological cataclysms, but the jump in global warming, which will lead to more melting of glaciers and the flooding of vast areas from 2016 onwards. The maximum values of the number and energy of natural disasters are expected in 2013-2014.

Report of the International Committee GEOCHANGE covers the period up to June 2010 ( Since then it's been more than six months. How can you comment is not covered by your report, period?

Unfortunately, our worst fears were confirmed. Talk about natural disasters is always very difficult, because this issue is related to the victims, the grief and suffering of many people in the world. But scientists who study natural disasters, have no moral right to remain silent and indifferent to watch the events taking place, for the analysis and forecast — that is our main goal. The international community, the heads of state and ordinary people can get competent information about what is happening in nature, only from scientists. The main question: "What happens in nature is and what to expect in the future?". If the international community has an answer to this question is highly likely, it is possible to timely prepare for future natural disasters, to join forces in different countries and to implement effective international coordination of their actions and, thereby, minimize casualties and losses from natural disasters. This explains the active operations of our committee in the world.

Earthquake victims

If we consider the statistics of natural disasters since June 2010, it fully confirms the upward trend in the number and energy of natural disasters, which is reflected in our report for the period up to June 2010. According to the world's largest Swiss insurance company Swiss Re, in 2010, economic losses from natural disasters totaled $ 222 billion, which is three times the economic losses in 2009 ($ 63 billion).

Here are a few striking examples: the catastrophic flooding: in Pakistan, Brazil, Australia, China, Mexico, etc., major earthquakes in Haiti, Chile, Italy, Turkey, China, Indonesia, etc., volcanic eruptions in Iceland, Indonesia, in the Far East in Ecuador, and others; summer forest fires in Russia, Israel, etc., abnormally hot weather throughout the northern hemisphere summer and abnormally high levels of snowfall in the winter. The death toll in natural disasters in 2010 exceeded 320,000 people, while in 2009 the death toll was about 15,000 people.

According to the report of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL), in 2010, from natural disasters in Latin America killed 300,000 people, damage to 49.4 billion dollars.


At the head of disasters in 2010, according to the number and extent of damage are flooding. Most monstrous in its tragic flooding in Pakistan began in July, after prolonged rains and continued through August. The flooding was caused by the release of several of the banks of major rivers in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. From floods have killed at least 3,500 people, millions of people were left homeless. The number of dead from the effects of the disaster may exceed the number of direct victims of flooding in ten. Nobody knows exactly how many people died in the flood.

Flood in Pakistan, July, 2010

The number of flood victims in Pakistan, according to the Prime Minister of this country, Yusuf Raza Gilani, has about 20 million people. Confirming this figure, the UN secretary general said that 15 to 20 million people in Pakistan need of basic necessities: food, water, tents.

Perhaps this child, who was born and surviving in the center of the natural disaster is expected to have a bright future (pictured right).

In Pakistan, there was a very large humanitarian and social disaster caused by natural disasters. According to experts, the country suffered an economic loss of $ 43 billion. Meanwhile, despite some assistance to Pakistan, international organizations and some countries, in fact, the people of Pakistan was left alone in the struggle against the elements and its consequences. This further testifies to the inadequacy of international laws to provide humanitarian assistance to the affected countries.

Severe flooding in Brazil have shaken the country from May to August 2010. Officially dead in floods in Brazil including more than 400 people, but more than 1,000 people are missing in the state of Alagoas and 500 people are reported missing in Unian dos Palmares in Alagoas.


In April, the 75 towns of Brazil announced emergency. Completely flooded and destroyed the whole city was in the state of Alagoas Brankine, home to 12,000 people.


According to the mayor of the city of Ana Lopez, the city Brankine beyond repair and will have to build a new city in a totally different place. In Brazil, the 2010 flood killed 556 people, and the economic damage exceeded $ 1 billion.

Severe flooding and landslides due to atypical rains in Mexico, virtually the entire year shook the country, and in the second half of the country was subject to flooding from June to late September. The damage caused by the floods in Mexico in 2010 was 5.3 billion dollars. In Colombia, floods and landslides killed more than 280 people in Guatemala — 174.

Second only to Pakistan, the stunning scale of imagination, was the flooding in Australia, which began in December 2010. In late December, the north-east of mainland Australia hit tropical storm Tasha, causing severe flooding in the country.


In particular, in the state of Queensland, which lasted several days because of rains the rivers burst their banks. Under the water were 22 cities in the state of Queensland. Flooding in Australia swept area that is larger than an area the size of France and Germany combined, in the flood zone were more than 200 thousand people.

Flooded area on January 14, 2011 covering an area of about one million square kilometers This flood was the largest in 50 years. According to the latest data, the economic damage caused by the element could exceed $ 9 billion. Australia was forced to stop production at 75 percent of coal and iron ore mines. Exports of coking coal from Australia have already halved. Meanwhile, the country's largest provider of this type of fuel — accounting for half of total world exports. Experts predict a rise in coal prices in the coming weeks by 30 percent. Due to heavy rains the water had a significant acreage of wheat. As experts warn, it could lead to food crisis in Australia. In some cases, the price of food there is already increased by 50 percent. To restore infrastructure damaged by severe flooding in the Australian state of Queensland, could take several years.


If the scale of the territories and economic damage in 2010, first place is flooding, the number of victims, the most tragic disasters, the earthquakes are. Only one earthquake in Haiti, which took place January 12, 2010, killing 222 thousand people. The consequences of this earthquake brought the country's social and humanitarian crisis and the inability of the independent existence of what has openly declared in January 2011, President of Haiti. Despite the continued assistance provided to the country by the United Nations, international organizations and individual countries, poor sanitation and a complete destruction of the infrastructure of the country, led a large-scale epidemic of cholera, which has killed several thousand people.

One of the strongest earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.7 occurred off the coast of Sumatra (Indonesia) on 25 October 2010. The earthquake was accompanied by ten weaker tremors — aftershocks with a magnitude of 5 to 6.2. The earthquake caused a great tsunami. The number of victims of the tsunami on the west coast of Sumatra exceeded 400. According to the governor of the province of West Sumatra, the waves that wiped out several villages facing the Indian Ocean coast of the island, deprived of shelter and four thousand.

Volcanic eruptions

October 26 and woke up the largest active volcano in Indonesia's Mount Merapi, located in Central Java. Its eruption has killed more than 150 people. October 30, there was another major eruption of Mount Merapi, and November 4 volcano has erupted with renewed force. 218 people are reported missing.

December 6 in Ecuador erupted volcano Tungurahua, located 130 km from the capital — the city of Quito. Column of steam and ash ejected from the crater of the volcano, reaching a height of 3 km.


Forest fires in Russia in the summer of 2010 were the most ambitious in the last 100 years and classified as natural disasters nationwide. The fires were related to fire and peat began in mid-August in the Moscow region and other regions of Russia.

According to the head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia Sergei Shoigu, in the Central and Volga regions of Russia burned 1170 homes and 2178 people were left homeless. In extinguishing fires were employed 238 thousand people and 25 thousand pieces of equipment, produced and planned deployment of forces from other parts of Russia in the affected regions. In coordination solution extinguishing forest fires directly involved the President and Prime Minister of Russia. In this process, were used not only emergency services and equipment of the Ministry for Emergency Situations, and the Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Interior, and many other ministries and organizations.

At the end of August, the area of the fires in Russia exceeded 500,000 hectares, and the number of fires has exceeded 10,000. Fires continued until the end of September killing more than 150 settlements. In connection with the Haze from Moscow were evacuated many embassies.

Red Square in Moscow during fires. Photo: AP / Mikhail Metzel

The main cause of forest fires in Russia is considered a heat wave that led to the drying up of vegetation and the rapid fire of peat deposits. The problem was compounded by the fact that the quenching of fires traditional means impossible — it requires special techniques. During the fires in Moscow and the Moscow region affected a large number of people. Directly during the fires in Russia killed more than 50 people. Meanwhile, from the extreme smoke in the air and increase its concentration of carcinogenic substances, only in Moscow during the fires, deaths among the population more than doubled (from 360 to 700 people daily).

The main causes of increase in deaths — the impact of smoke on the health of people with cardio-vascular disease, asthma, hypertension, lung problems. Most affected by fires Mordovia, Tatarstan, Belgorod, Voronezh, Ivanovo, Kirov, Moscow, Nizhny Novgorod, Ryazan, Ulyanovsk, Vladimir, Lipetsk, Tambov and Tula region of Russia. According to the world's largest insurance company Swiss Re, by fire, smoke, air and heat wave in Russia this summer have killed more than 15,000 people.

I think I have given enough information to make sure that the natural disasters in the second half of 2010 were as active as in the first. Currently, the International Committee GEOCHANGE prepares an interim report for the period from 01 June to 31 December 2010 with a detailed analysis of the dynamics of the environment, but now I can responsibly say that, unfortunately, our worst predictions were confirmed.

What other negative effects can be expected from natural disasters in 2011?

According to our data, if 2010 can be a year of floods, then in 2011, amid ongoing floods, hurricanes and tornadoes, even earthquakes and active volcanoes. This year marks the beginning of high seismic and volcanic activity around the world.

I brought up the data in the world's largest insurance company Suiss Re, according to which, the damage caused by natural disasters in 2010, more than 300% higher than the damage in 2009. A number of countries suffered such losses, from which they can not recover on their own without foreign aid (Haiti, Pakistan, Australia, Mexico, and others). The crisis in the economy of the affected countries have already started to draw into the abyss of another global economic crisis the entire global economic system. Agree that the increase in world coal prices by 30% just because of the floods in one country — Australia — is a major economic indicator. If we consider that there is a real risk of increasing the 2011 number and severity of natural disasters by 100%, compared to 2010, we can expect a doubling of economic damage. This means that by the end of 2011, the international community will witness the first signs of the next global financial crisis, the scale and the effects of which may be much deeper than the previous crisis.

Dear Professor Khalilov, what you offer, whether there are specific plans for further activities of the International Committee GEOCHANGE or international releases and analytical functions of the committee report is completed?

To date, the International Committee of the GEOCHANGE, bringing together prominent scientists from more than 80 countries around the world, sent a communiqué signed by more than 300-mi scientists from 86 countries and a report on global environmental change, more than 100 heads of state and more than 50 influential international organizations, including the United Nations, the European Union, the Organization of the Islamic Conference, and others. Scientists and the international community expect reaction and action from the UN, heads of states and international organizations in connection with the sharp increase in the number and energy of natural disasters around the world. Their determination and promptness of action depend the lives and destinies of people around the globe and stable development of human civilization. Need to take action and spend a lot of work to improve international law, the system of the safety of civil aviation and transport, shipping, international coordination of disaster management, etc.

International Committee GEOCHANGE not going to take a passive stance. We understand that the world is on the threshold of great danger — a position of waiting can not be justified and we will not be forgiven by future generations. Since 2011, the International Committee GEOCHANGE launches a contingency plan, the implementation of which the world community will be kept informed. Secretariat to the Committee in various countries have already started sending special handling of complex proposals to parliaments, congresses and other regulatory authorities in the various countries, in order to begin the adoption of special national and international laws governing the various aspects of the action during the preparation of forecasts, directly in natural disasters and the process of recovery. In addition, after a year of training, officially launched the International Congress "Natural cataclysms and global problems of modern civilization» — GEOCATACLYSM-2011 and the international exhibition to be held in September 2011 in Istanbul (Turkey). The Congress will be interdisciplinary and will cover all aspects and issues related to natural disasters. The main section of the Congress: 1. Earth Science 2. Economics and Finance, 3. Vehicles 4. Health 5. Emergency Management 6. Construction 7. Ecology and Environment, 8. Communication and Information Technology, 9. International and national law;

International Congress will gather representatives of all interested countries and organizations for the emergency forum together to discuss the most pressing issues to reduce casualties and damage during natural disasters. The ultimate goal of the Congress is to discuss and approve a joint effort of the International Committee GEOCHANGE, WOSCO, GNFE and a group of international experts of the "international emergency program to reduce risks and negative effects from natural disasters" covering the development of a set of international laws for the interaction of the international community in disaster areas, forecasting natural disasters, earthquake engineering, and other important aspects. Resolution of Congress program will be presented to the Secretary General of the UN and sent to all the heads of states and their legislative bodies for consideration and appropriate action.

There are special sections of the Congress, the General Assembly of the International Committee on Global Environmental Change and International Conference GEOCHANGE "Forecasting the 2011 earthquake." We can already say that the Congress will be attended by representatives of over 100 countries around the world, among which are well-known scholars, members of parliaments and governments of various countries, prominent public and political figures. More detail the terms of the Congress can be found at:

Thank you for the interesting and detailed interview.

International Scientific Information Agency WOSCO, 14.01.2011, the

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