Society on these topics in the "Prague accent" political scientists argue Victor Martinovich, Leading and Yuri Chausov.
Drakakhrust: From a university course in the history of the CPSU remember the controversy Plekhanov
Lenin about the revolution of 1905. According to Plekhanov — it was not necessary to take up arms, according to Lenin — you need to, but more decisively and energetically. In Belarus, the 2010 revolution as such weapons and was not, sharpening, fittings, explosives and other existed only in the statements of officials and advocacy commercials BT. Nevertheless, revolution, revolution or attempt, peaceful, "color", yet the revolution was.
So you disagree with someone — with Plekhanov or Lenin? There was no need to take — whether it is necessary, but more strongly? Whether it was necessary at all to act differently? Vladimir
Podgol: I do not agree with any or the other, or with you, Yuri. During the democratic revolutions of the main weapon — the moral high ground. The most effective weapon in the evening of the 19th and the whole previous period should be smehavaya smehavaya irony and aggression that make up the culture smehavoy Belarusians. Unfortunately did not. And this despite the fact that the teams diplomat and poet — the entire flower bed witty persons. The final carnival in the central squares of the capital needed to make all laugh, even Yarmoshyna and Lazavik, Lukashenko's sons, and the dictator himself — to cry. The politician, who turned in a bogey opponents quickly dies.
See that Lukashenko did with Yarmoshina with our leaders at the beginning of the play. Yarmoshina Statkievich with derision: "You are the most convincing, Nicholas, after you have signed in Vitebsk as much as 20 dead." The general also said flatly: "I'm not a clown in their theater." And what conclusions? It was necessary to make clowns tyrant and his aides. We have not seen a single mask with a mustache, no mask Yarmoshina was not dramatizations, although the team was a member of Sannikov "Free Theatre". Our leaders came up with the idea of the Government "national salvation", and he had to go with the idea of saving people. It's like a toy on the porch elektrashokeram Egyptian shark. Well, she bared her teeth. Now we have received not the moral victors and victims.
DrakakhrustViktor and with whom you disagree — with Lenin, Plekhanov, a headrest? We had to get up, do not, in general it was necessary to act otherwise?
Martinovic: In my opinion, it was necessary to climb. And in my opinion, all was well. On the part of the organizers of the calculation was palittehnalyagichny literate and fairly balanced. And all supposed to work: the president is illegitimate, on hands — evidence that in the first round, he did not win, we turn to the prime minister and so we go to the Government House. This logical chain looked quite reasonable. All that has happened, including the transformation of the presidential candidates in the prisoners, the potential winners in victims — is, to me
does not appear to result from their mistakes. Very well written Vladimir Mackiewicz, who noted that he could not predict this, because it predicts only rational steps, and all that happened was an irrational phenomenon, whose roots are thought of cowardice in the neural responses. So now we hear more emotional assessments of the situation than the weighted analysis. What happened, is difficult to analyze carefully.
DrakakhrustYuri, do you agree with this approach? If we continue the analogy with 1905, the order of General Trepava — "spare no bullets" — also was irrational? Or is it a standard, in his own rational response tyrants?
Chausov: Any analogy conditional, including analogy with the revolution of 1905. As for Mr. Podgolov analogy, it is not new — all this company sounded compared to the farce, theater, stage. This carnival, fictional style was celebrated by all. And at some point, and the candidates themselves came to believe that they are just actors in a play. Stylish dissonance between light comedy and drama of the whole ending felt in many reflections ex post facto, now.
As for the Revolution, I would not agree with yours, Yuri thesis. In my opinion there was no attempt to revolution. And we can not put the question — do you agree with Plekhanov to Lenin. We live in the 21st century, and the important role played by media factor is significantly greater than in the days of Plekhanov and Lenin. It seems to me that the government propaganda in covering the events of the current square will make the opposition stronger and more radical than it actually is.
In this sense, the effect of this area will be unpredictable. Relatively speaking, Plekhanov and Lenin did. At the beginning of the campaign in the opposition could be isolated, "Plekhanov" and "Leninist" groups were those who focused on the repetition of the Plaza-2006, for the installation of tents, the long-term and, above all, a moral protest, and were more radical groups . Now all zlilosya into one stream and attempts to state propaganda and intelligence agencies to share it through the ambiguous statements made by some candidates do not have soil.
The area feels the moral support of society, this is manifested in how much assistance the things money is now going to support political prisoners.
It seems to me that most of the people in the area has not been set on a radical, "Lenin" in your terminology way. Otherwise, it would be a real resistance overclocking, violent actions of special services. But the assault rhetoric of individual leaders, who started playing in the "Leninist" scenario, played a bad role, has created fertile ground for those provocateurs, which you can tell that they really were the main actors in this area.
DrakakhrustYes, that's me made a strong impression that factor, that of persons against whom criminal charges for Square-2010, there is no one who personally broke the door and hit the glass in the Government House. I have a question about what Victor called iratsyyanalnastsyu. Why is this going on? It can be assumed that the 19-th power was in an excited state. But why she continues to behave so cruelly? Of particular horror cause public repentance. I remember how, in the 30s people were recognized in the heinous crimes. You can give examples of other countries, where it is much more vigorous action caused much weaker sanctions. But we're not talking about other countries and about Belarus. So why? Or is it the law of the counter-revolution, all reactions? Victor
Martinovic: It seems to me that such a response is really happening counterrevolution, is a demonstration that we are now living in a different country than the one we lived in before the people with stun grenades attacked Neklyaeva. Done so that everyone understoo
d that a country that we even had time to fall in love, has passed. Unreasonably harsh words of Alexander Lukashenko about the Internet, about the media, one would not say, mean that we are going back to the past. Geopolitical
The rationale behind this is that Russia — again, our best friend. What about the fact whether it was necessary to do so, and if there was another way, it is obvious to everyone that it was not necessary and that was not the only way. The team managers liberal, which was responsible for the country last year and a half, quite successfully coped with tactical tasks. And if it were not so brutal, the objectives have been achieved, Lukashenko would have stayed for the 4th time, but would make it more elegant.
This brutality worked against Lukashenko and the rights Kalinkina, which says that Belarus has now been held hostage by Russia. Maybe this was done intentionally.
DrakakhrustVladimir, I say again that there are two different things. It is one thing — the evening of the 19th, perhaps there before the eyes of the people of power Pictures April storm the presidential palace in Bishkek. But when the next day came to the area a couple of dozen people, when it became clear that the square wave will not go further, why was not made generous gesture, "I won, I forgive everyone"?
Podgol: Unlike colleagues who refuses to analyze the irrational, I'm only on the methods of study of the irrational and the ground. There is a smart quote from Lukashenko that we will run even if the mouse is not there, we'll catch it and where it is necessary. These words, written a few years ago were repeated, but in a different form — that goofy democracy, we will no longer be, and journalists will be responsible for every word. And Interior Minister Kuleshov responded to this order, stating that we are the face of all who were in the square, and each will be arrested and punished. This
means that there will be further arrests and detentions. This means that the conditional wrestler who was in the showers, and then in the legs that have sustained people to the area, will be eradicated completely. Lukashenko has suffered, endured all this time, giving the candidates say they want to meet with anyone they want. He also reported how the people respond to it.
That's enough, the dictator can not tolerate such freemen, should all go order. Here in this country we go, because this is the mentality of a dictator who feels that the authority, moral authority is lost. Then the power you need to plant the power to the people feared. And it is also a moral power — the power of fear.
DrakakhrustYuri, do you agree with Vladimir? And if so, what Lukashenko was frightened — the people on the Square or these election results? According to some of them and have pretty sad. On election day, there was war exit polls with a range of numbers vote for Lukashenko from 30% to 81%. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said that, according to reliable sources, Lukashenko received 40%. And how many actually, in your opinion? Or it does not matter — part of Belarusian society has recognized the right to control Lukashenko, partly reconciled with that right?
Chausov: The theory of Mr. Podgolov I think not without rights, although the terminology and controversial. I would say that such brutal harsh actions of the authorities — is rational actions with irrational motivation. There was an attempt, successful or not — we do not know — perakadirovki minds of community activists so in the general population. This year, the authorities were faced with a very difficult task: the elections were to be liberal to the outside observer, and still repressive — for indoor. And the size of the role played perakadirovki. Now very few people, except professional OSCE observers will recall petition liberal terms. Area eclipsed everything, blood stains on the snow crossed all positive steps in the course of the election campaign — a new electoral code and the relatively liberal environment campaigning. This is not a counter-revolution, it is anti-revolutionary action to prevent the revolutionary protest. But, paradoxically, these anti-revolutionary activity has occurred in the absence of a full-fledged revolutionary project. In this situation, state violence was completely rational and conscious way, the impact on society.
We are so far under the influence of these dramatic events that are going on — there are arrests, searches, many friends and relatives are in prison, and some predict the future is difficult. Who in the spring of 2006 could have predicted that the result of the political situation then compiled to Alexander Lukashenko reconciliation with the West. Only the most desperate optimists then talked about it. Do the math — and official, and numbers of exit polls, they are now very few people are interested. However, it should be noted that these elections did not create a new leader, supported by the electoral support of the second Milinkevich not. The authorities have done so that the elections did not create a new electoral strong figure. Strong policies hardened now in the dungeons of "American."
DrakakhrustVladimir, the results of this election — is really a black box. But do you agree with George that really matter, and what's there and how many are there? Or is it a big difference does it make? Every person — spontaneous sociologist, he somehow sense the mood of the majority. Or it does not matter?
Podgol: First, I agree with the speaker. Does it matter who won. And victory is considered dually our natural social scientists, our students and our voters. The first — someone who gave in the face, and the second — who, in spite of the fact someone who gave in the face, morally defeated. In this sense, the political battle has just begun. The behavior of the leaders, their colleagues, their teams are now much depends on this battle. Went process. It is impossible to summarize. And now the numbers really do not matter.
DrakakhrustViktor and you the same question — whether the value of the digit, which no one knows?
Martinovic: As no one knows should be taken literally. In my opinion one of the causes of what happened at the Plaza, is that sociology in Belarus destroyed Even Alexander Lukashenko does not know how much interest he actually scored. And does not know is not the first election. Our system eliminates the counting of votes counted valid results even for the president. In 2001, the vote or were not considered or were considered conventional. In 2006, they were not considered even for information Lukashenko.
And in a situation where no one knows the numbers, we must be proactive. We can assume that Lukashenko realistically scored 50%, but I suspect that this feeling was not with him and his entourage. This forced the use of force.
Do the math, sociology, Belarus has become a phenomenon of faith, you either believe
or NISEPI and Manaev Musienko or exit polls BelSat that this time will differ even from those NISEPI. No scientific sociology in Belarus remains.