Elections in Belarus ended the life of inhabitants went into its usual course — without any turmoil and shocking shots on TV and terrifying rumors. People are busy pre-New Year troubles. Everyone hopes for the New Year to find happiness, prosperity, love, friendship, in the end, just to gain new experiences.
But something understated and not all clear, no explanation yet, no, no, and pops up in memory of the Belarusians.
And probably the most asked question among them after 20 December was — why people came to the area?
Debate on this subject can be long and tedious. But to find the truth, or close to it, take a look at the program of those a year or two tried with foreign sponsors not only to express themselves publicly …
Excerpts from the strategic plan of GC "Tell the Truth" (2009godu)
(Style and original spelling retained)
On the prospects of socio-political transformation of society and the state in the Republic of Belarus
VI. Possible scenarios for the future campaign
6.1. Basic rationale for the choice of options scenario campaign
"… What is the main difference between this campaign from the campaign of 2006.?
There have been several new factors:
- · Factor crisis and the sharp decline in the economic well-being, which in the future may increase;
- · The factor of personal safety, including the factor of his youngest son;
- · Factor interest Lukashenko in power legitimization through recognition of Europe (the country needs loans and the market for Belarusian goods);
- · Factor downgrade Lukashenko.
- · Internetization countries: the potential of new media for the campaign.
It should also be borne in mind before the election, Lukashenko may declare a program of modernization of the country, made several demonstrative and symbolic actions. Among them are:
- · Changing the electoral law (without changing the electoral system)
- · Changes in tax legislation
- · Changing the law on political parties.
It should also be remembered that, unlike in 2006 Lukashenka will not play on the economic achievements of his regime, and the pedal will likely foreign policy successes and the "breakthrough to Europe." In this case, it becomes a trump promotion of European subjects, that it can simultaneously limit the application of repressive measures against the opposition. If Lukashenko still be able to slow down the effects of the crisis, it will use it in their rhetoric.
If Lukashenko take the initiative from the opposition and put forward a reform program, it may well give a figure Milinkevich as a major competitor. Milinkevich now works objectively to this scenario, offering the program "Belarus to Europe."
Any of the scenarios are based on a figure the candidate of the National Trust and assumes mass protests, as an instrument of pressure on the government. The candidate of the National Trust is not a candidate of any one or more of the opposition organizations, although it acts as an alternative to the current government. The candidate of the National Trust as a consensual figure might have a chance at going beyond the 30% of the electorate, which today are critical to the current government. Relatively speaking, the candidate of the National Trust is closer to the "embodiment of Kostunica," and not to "option Yushchenko."
Defining candidate of the National Trust is an expert way. Formally, his appearance on the political scene is in the broad public campaign "Tell the Truth." The campaign "Tell the truth" is the background of the civil campaign, which is based on public disclosure total lie about the real situation in Belarus. The campaign is the process of gathering evidence of fraud on the part of public authorities acting at all levels. In the course of this campaign is the excretion of the candidate of the National Trust on the political scene, its legitimacy in the eyes of public opinion.
In this situation it is necessary positioning candidate of the National Trust in relation to the other opposition candidates. Likely will not be able to exclude from the presidential campaign of Representative UDF and Milinkevich as the leader of the "For Freedom" (the process of positioning has already started). In any case, the leader of the National Trust to the first stage (prior to registration as a candidate) to publicly distance themselves from the processes taking place in the opposition, but not to get involved in a confrontation with them. In the second stage (active phase of the campaign) can negotiate that on a favorable rating dynamics should lead to the withdrawal of opposition candidates in favor of the leader of the national agreement. It is important not to let any of the opposition leaders began an independent game that fundamentally undermine the very idea of national confidence.
Nominate an alternative candidate Lukashenko National Trust also has the element of surprise for the team the incumbent. Today, it counts on the standard of the opposition, which spends the major force for the implementation of the procedure of "single candidate." The nomination of the new entity and not through the usual political processes — move non-standard, which can confuse and lead plans at this stage to a tactical win.
Whatever the choice of scenario has several mandatory problems to be solved in any case and without which the campaign is fundamentally impossible:
1. Monitor the situation. It is assumed that the coming year — half — a time when the possibility of significant changes in the short term. Requires constant analysis of the situation to determine the likelihood of a particular scenario;
2. Nomination of the National Trust;
3. Create an organizational structure and team of the candidate. In all cases, campaign management should be technologized and professionally organized. Necessary to exclude the principles of personal sympathies and svoyachestvo. To the active phase of the campaign (the beginning of the collection of signatures) should be developed: the organizational and management scheme of the election campaign: zoning and mapping of constituencies, hiring canvassers, the appointment of foremen, prepared forms and channels of monitoring and reporting;
4. Agenda setting campaign formulation of positive and critical message campaign;
5. Development of the basic texts on the campaign. By the time of the active phase should be created: the program of the candidate (a lengthy summary version and version for printing), all of the major campaign materials, information files, portfolio of the candidate;
6. Internet-based campaign in support of the candidate: activation blogosphere, seizing opportunities and YouTube RuTube, social networks. Targeted production of pulses for the dissemination of information (rumors, jokes, promotional information);
7. Information campaign. By the time of the active phase of the campaign must be made all Internet projects, an information campaign in the press. The main task — to maintain the pace of the growing campaign, the peak of which will be on the day;
8. Campaign Organization Western pressure on the Belarusian authorities to the full participation of opposition parties in the district and territorial election commissions;
9. Petition and candidate registration. Tentatively be collected about 250 thousand signatures;
10. Preparation of mass protests.
The main difference compared to the upcoming campaign with the campaign in 2006 should be to its timely preparedness. One of the major mistakes of the past years was the fact that prior to the campaign, the main activity was to select a single candidate, and the preparatory organizational work coincided with the active phase of the campaign, which led to a permanent tactical delay. Another difference is the technology use campaign. The campaign should be based on the principle of a business project a professional, not a political management. Accordingly, campaign financing should be constructed in accordance with the comprehensive and reliable estimates, and not arbitrary: such a project can not begin without a guaranteed and fully funded.
Here are some possible scenarios for the campaign, which can be transformed from one to another depending on changes in the situation:
The script for "Victory" possible in the event that triggered the crisis and will factor more or less abrupt change in public sentiment against the current government. Dynamics of the situation will be obvious, not later than three months before the election. This scenario is realized when running Lukashenko himself. When he makes his place "successor" is a script used if you can not persuade the successor to the negotiations. The script includes the following required components:
- · Identification of the candidate of the National Trust by the expert, through the evaluation of a set of preferred experts in the public mind the characteristics of the candidate, as the most suitable shape for the purpose of this campaign;
- · Performance of "Tell the truth" campaign as a background for the nomination and removal of the political scene of the candidate of the National Trust and update its policy provisions;
- · Conduct an information campaign to disseminate information about the possible resignation of Alexander Lukashenko: initiating rumors, including on the Internet channels. Must accustom public opinion and the opinion of the elite to the very possibility of such care
- · Creation of a new agenda for the campaign for the opposition candidate. Emphasis on economic and social issues as the most disadvantageous for the government;
- · Negotiations with alternative candidates and their removal in favor of the candidate of the National Trust. Reason — Rating change;
- · The campaign of "door to door". This campaign should not take place in fragments, and consistently in all major cities of the country. The main objective of the campaign "door to door" — creating a sustainable awareness of the candidate;
- · Permanent demonstration activity by holding public events. If they do not succeed the first days of the massive campaign to resort to symbolic activities that would be bright, eye-catching and will go on increasing, especially in the case of the repressive response of the authorities;
- · Mass visualization alternative campaigns through the use of simple and accessible symbols campaign. Creating an atmosphere of solidarity through its symbolic notation, the use of technology flash mob;
- · Organize a multidisciplinary campaign for election observation: the control plane (total surveillance of domestic resources by agitators), depth (by international observers), an exit-pool studies, suggesting that in this case the government will have to resort to fraud, because, as shown by actual measurements and the dynamics of the economic situation, convincingly defeated Lukashenka can not be;
- · Organization of action to protect the results of the election: the script, code-named "Space-win." Scenario is based on a combination of factors: public protests, which must have a cumulative effect and update the idea of personal responsibility chairmen of election commissions. The script for "Space-win" is built as an extension of "Tell the Truth", which at this stage, people are demanding the truth about the election results. Mass action starts from the first day of voting, that is, 5 days before the primary election day, peaking in the election day and continues until after the result. The main requirement — revision (cancel) the election results, the change of the President of Belarus.
The script for "The changes here and now" implemented if the economic situation deteriorates, but Lukashenko can temporarily keep it under control and he is running for election, or if Lukashenko not participate in elections and pushes successor. If Lukashenko pushes successor in a crisis, the task of the candidate of the National Trust is to force the successor to the negotiations, with a clearly defined "hard" negotiating agenda. If the negotiations break down, the script is transformed into a scenario of "victory." If the successor is nominated conditions when the state can temporarily restrain the economic crisis, the objective is to force the maximum power to the negotiations, the result of which will be presented to the institutionalization of change and approval of the candidate as a subject of political life through the script "Change is here and now." Such negotiations are a reality, because the successor will understand that the economic crisis will continue to grow and with it the social tension, so changes made as a result of negotiations, can afford to balance the situation. If negotiations break down, it is necessary to implement the scenario of "Victory" with the requirements of the second round of elections. The second round win for the government almost impossible. Announcement of the second round will automatically lead to consolidation of the opposition and the mobilization of the opposition candidate, as well as to the demoralization of the authorities, who will see a real opportunity to change the country's political leadership. In the case of the second round will not have problems with the mobilization of people to the area.
The components of this scenario:
- · Conduct analytical work to monitor the probability of this scenario. It is assumed that the probability of this scenario is evident not earlier than 3 months prior to the election;
- · Nomination of the National Trust through the campaign "Tell the Truth" and its positioning relative to other alternative shapes (single candidate from the UDF and Milinkevich);
- · Negotiations with alternative candidates and their removal in favor of the candidate of the National Trust. Reason — Rating change. If towards the elimination of all or several alternative candidates can not, it weakens our campaign, but does not eliminate it;
- · Organize a multidisciplinary campaign for election observation: the control plane (total surveillance of domestic resources by agitators), depth (by international observers), an exit-pool studies;
- · Campaigning pressure on the government "Change is here and now." The campaign is in the active phase — "The Square", starting six days before the election day. The leitmotif of the campaign: "We do not believe that Lukashenko will change, we need guarantees." In this case it is necessary to ensure continuity of public actions. Keep in mind that the interest of Lukashenko in international recognition of the election results can play a positive role, as will force the incumbent to refrain from harsh repressive action against the demonstrators, because, if the protesters are dispersed, it will not allow the EU to recognize the election;
- · The candidate of the National Trust to make demands of public and institutional guarantees for change in the country. Formed a political opposition to the proposal from the government;
- · Further action depends on the results of voting. If a candidate is gaining national consensus convincing number of votes, the above scenario is realized "Victory";
- · If the opposition can not collect a convincing number of votes, the campaign is continuing pressure on the government under the slogan: "Guarantees change here and now." One factor is the pressure — external — legitimization Lukashenko should not be possible without the institutionalization of our candidate, that is. Other — internal — the need to share responsibility for the further development of the country against the backdrop of a deepening economic crisis;
- · In this case, the script continues to be "Change is here and now," but the goal of the "area" of the other — forcing the authorities to negotiate. The area is as long as Lukashenko or successor agrees to negotiate with the candidate of the National Trust or not accept a number of requirements area;
- · Negotiations with the authorities in the form of "round table", a public forum, etc. Goal — the institutionalization of opposition and registration of its political subjectivity. Our candidate is a national leader in full-weight of the new trust and institutionalized opposition.
There are two factors that can significantly reduce this scenario. First — if Lukashenko manages to keep things under control with additional financial injections. In this case, it is clearly in the lead in the campaign.
Second — if you can not agree on the withdrawal from Milinkevich, whose position is objectively beneficial to government as an argument in favor of international legitimacy.
Eliminate the possibility that the addition of these factors is not possible.
In this case, our candidate lies optional — forced by the script "Change Square," Milinkevich for more radical measures. That is, the pressure is not only the power but also the opposition, which is ready to solve their own problems to make concessions in matters of real change in the country. Compulsion to negotiate power and forcing the moderate opposition (Milinkevich and others) to request from the authorities to make public negotiations with the opposition. Pressure Milinkevich important because if he admits defeat and victory Lukashenko or his successor, it will make possible the recognition of the election by the EU (as the level of trust in the EU Milinkevich high enough) in the absence of any change in the country, that is, actual consolidation of power in its positions. It can be assumed for this scenario that the government will try to use the opportunity. Goal — the institutionalization of opposition and registration of its political subject-remains the same. Our candidate is also in this case, the leader of the National Trust and the new institutionalized opposition.
The attempt of this scenario was made Milinkevich in 2006., But was unsuccessful for reasons both technical and political. Milinkevich movement "For Freedom" was the result of the election campaign, but did not become significant political actors. Chance to create such an actor appears at present, based on the availability of new factors, which we discussed above … ".