What will Assads departure?

What will Assad's departure?

Israeli political society continues to prepare for the overthrow of the regime of Bashir al-Assad, intensively discussing the likely consequences. A similar activity has not gone unnoticed. South American media indicate that for the near future the eyes of Israeli politicians endured significant changes. Previously, most of them have tried to refrain from commenting on the Syrian issue, now they are virtually unanimously expressed the doom the current regime there.

According to the views of Ehud Barak and Moshe Ayalon, the overthrow of the Assad regime — a matter of days. According to the views of these politicians, such a turn of events would lead to a sharp weakening of the Iranian positions, and along with it the constructive-minded anti-Israel groups. Regarding the concern over the fact that after the fall of the Assad regime will come to power constructively minded Islamists, the Israeli politicians rely on the fact that new elections will bring to power a moderate Sunnis. This statement was not the case, because a large part of Syria's population are Sunni.

But, in spite of everything, the Israeli political summit openly treats warnings Ariel Sharon over the fact that the place Assad can come constructive "Muslim Brotherhood".

Ehud Barak once said that mode Assad loses all control over the situation. But what caused these statements is unclear. Yes, a huge multi-million dollar campuses held demonstrations and rallies, but they are all in support of the incumbent president. But we should not forget about the existence of cities like Homs and Nahal, the inhabitants of which are bad enough to Assad's government. So Makar, meetings testify to the power mode, but does not guarantee him a measured future.

Israeli Minister for Strategic Planning Ayalon sure that in any case, the fall of an old regime will be accompanied by bloodshed. Indeed, while one thing is clear: the acting president is not going to give up, because his support as in the past in most major cities, is also feeling behind them the support not only of China and Russia, and Iran.

Bashar al-Assad himself confident that the samples are related to shift it first with the development of relations with Russia. He stated this in an interview. He also said that such pressure from the West was not a surprise. After all, prerequisites for this were outlined in 2003, when the United States invaded the area of Afghanistan and Iraq. In the same year came to Syria Colin Powell (Secretary of State of the U.S. government at the time) and claimed the review of relations with the Russian Federation. He openly stated the need to complete rupture of the agreements, and in the event of failure threatened to anger. Powell said, and the fact that Iraq is a sufficient amount of military equipment to use it, and against the Syrian country. Assad also told reporters that the South American government vigorously supports constructive Syrian opposition: rebels, "Al-Qaeda", "Muslim Brotherhood." In addition, the same support to terrorists and has a number of Arab states.

So Makar, talk about the failure of the peace authority is not necessary. But, if we assume that an old mode fell, then who will come to power? Can be referred to Israeli politicians moderate Sunnis? In 1-x, you need to find that this is a measure of moderation, in-2, see all credible Sunni favorites on the subject of temperance, in-3, to find which of the Sunni groups have a real impact in the state. But as the situation in the military and social issues specifically defines the number of strongest weapon, it is clear that power get the Islamists.

Part of professionals relates to the Sunnis and advocating a return to the Quran Salafi, although their understanding of the world pronounced religious intolerance.

The ideas "Muslim Brotherhood" look more moderate. Not long ago, some media published a statement spokesman Zuhair Salem group, in which he stated that Syria — this is a temporary phenomenon, so how was created to end up signing a contract in 1916 Sykes-Picot (a "BM" of this document does not recognize). He also emphasized that the primary purpose of "Muslim Brotherhood" is the creation of a single Islamic country.
As we see, the differences are not special. And they both believe Alamito and Druze have no right to life of the nations. So Makar, the bloodshed in the country inevitably. And the guilty will be those who try to push Assad to power methods, including the Western countries.

Meanwhile, the situation around Syria continues to heat up. Almost immediately after the introduction of the United States, the European Union and the Arab League sanctions and the case entered the Libyan mercenaries. They are ready to join the "Free Syrian Army".

"The Syrian Free army"- This is a typical copy of the Libyan rebels. Its organizers were defectors from the Syrian government army. This group was formed in the coastal areas of Turkey and not once clashed with the legitimate army. The emergence of support in the form of Libyan rebels indicates that the power scenario is beginning to gain momentum. According to the views of analysts, there may be several options for the development of subsequent events: the Syrian government army establish order in the country, as it was made in Egypt. By the way, the loss of Assad's supporters have tallied 1.5 thousand police officers. The second option — the power stroke, which can likely cause either NATO or Saudi Arabia (though perhaps more, it will be Arabia). Turkey, on the contrary, the power scenario is unprofitable. Because then it must be taken on its own terrain thousands of refugees, among whom and ethnic Kurds (and they are very very destabilize the political situation in the country). There is Israel, but it makes no sense to go to war.

A third option would be Iran's interference. With this state-Syria ties on mutual agreement, signed in 2009. In addition, if the government Assad falls, the threat of strikes on Iran itself will increase many times over.

Although not yet officially Western countries do not they say on the application of measures of force, all well aware that just did not mention anything about the invasion of Iraq or Libya. Please also had a variety of sanctions, and reports of human rights violations. Well … All of this is already in Syria: Arab League have imposed economic sanctions, Turkey threatens to cut off electricity, the Western media do not stop the attacks on Assad and his government. It seems that anything decent is not expected.

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