Ended burning the "Arab Spring" have been even more bloody "Arab Summer and Fall" came the "Arab winter". This allows you to make some conclusions about the situation in the Middle East, North Africa and make a forecast for the near future. Loaf over what do these actions for Russia, and what policies it should be carried out in relation to these processes.
Already at this point it is clear that a more active role in the region play a few local and external players. And the part of the local players finished the game — Egypt and Libya does not have to be centers of power, and the victims of the battlefield. The active players are more active in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran and Turkey. A more active and powerful force OUTDOOR — is a militant alliance of Britain and France, and behind them the United States. China and our homeland less perceptible and more are political and diplomatic means, although not forgets to fight for market share in the tremendous tools and capacious region.
West, Turkey and Sunni monarchy for blood Syrian Arab Republic, Bashar al-Assad. In addition, the active preparation of world public opinion for war with Iran. For this we conducted several awareness campaigns: 1) the world is no longer a one-year frighten "the Iranian nuclear bomb," and soon poured kerosene with the IAEA report, and 2) Tehran blamed in the preparation of the revolution in Bahrain, which suppressed the security forces of the Cooperation Council of Arab the Gulf (GCC), and 3) the Islamic Republic was accused of plotting to kill the Saudi ambassador and undermining the Saudi embassy in the capital of Israel and the United States, and 4) The authorities of the kingdom of Bahrain have accused Iran of preparing a series of terrorist attacks on their country. The terrorists planned to disrupt Tipo in Bahrain Saudi embassy building and auto bridge that connects Saudi Arabia and the island kingdom.
Of course, that made the Anglo-Saxons and their allies did not stop and we will see more than one provocation may be, and a very powerful attack, like the actions of September 11, 2001, where it will be found, "the Iranian track."
And before the impact on Iran to solve the problem of Syria, bringing the situation to a better civilian war against the Sunni majority and the Alawite Assad supporters. Open intervention in Syria conflict is fraught with the entry into Iran, a scenario where the regime of Bashar al-Assad will fall, "he" is more profitable.
The situation around the Islamic Republic was such that war is inevitable. The development of the crisis is pushing the Western world to unleash a major war in the Middle East, so that in any other way affect the whole world. Although neither Tehran nor Jerusalem, nor the population monarchies of the Persian Gulf, Turkey and the Middle East are not interested in the war.
This, and the war has long threatened Tehran, Iranian forces management to develop its nuclear program from, spirited pace improved defensive ability and to respond to the brutal expression of Western or Israeli politicians the same way.
It is clear that care about the future of Iran's elite Islamic Republic means the need for adherence to the so-called "Nuclear club." Lesson near future is simple: either you have a nuclear weapon and determination to apply it, or a country that conducts independent policy can crush at least some time. The DPRK has a nuclear bomb, and the ability to produce nuclear weapons, it will not touch. Saddam Hussein did not have nuclear weapons, the country was occupied, Hussein was executed. Muammar Gaddafi arranged with international society and abandoned development of the Libyan nuclear programs from that offer and offer to do and Iran, but the West has broken all the vowels and unspoken agreement. Libyan Jamahiriya crushed, her favorite, killed brutally revealing.
No need to consider Tehran "lamb" — the Iranian military, political, spiritual elite have plans of creation of so-called "Shia caliphate", to become the hegemon of the Islamic world. A nuclear weapon in the formation of a "great power" does not hurt. At the "restructuring" of the Islamic world in favor of Tehran world can get a nuclear power with a decent military, scientific and economic potential.
Naturally, the West and Israel is not Iran behold the favorite of the Islamic world, it is necessary to eliminate, unwanted rival does not need — so enough problems. This will support the West has Turkey and the Gulf monarchies, because implementation of plans of Tehran — is the collapse of their plans on the "Sunni caliphate" or "new Ottoman Empire."
Tehran's allies under attack
Syria — the most powerful ally of Iran, but, apparently, this country "smooth out" earlier than would strike on the Islamic Republic. The country is enveloped virus excitement, and every day come alarming announcements, start talking about the proximity of civilian war orchestrated by outside. In the battle thrown resources Sunni monarchies, Turkey, the Western states. Thus, the main UN human rights — the High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay — announced in the Syrian Arab Republic plainclothes war. According to her, the number of victims in the SAR has over 4 thousand people, more military scamper to the opposition and armed resistance to the government is getting stronger.
Her statement coincided with news of another — is a consolidation of the Syrian opposition. Under the auspices of the Turkish authorities on December 1, on the ground in Turkey, talks were held between representatives of the 2-opposition organizations that achieve the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad — Syria, the State Council and the Syrian Free Army (SSA). The two organizations officially recognized each other. Syrian State Council said that the PAS is a really existing structure, which is fighting against the Assad regime. In response, the Council recognized the PAS central political structure of the Syrian opposition. The two sides agreed to coordinate their actions and establishing constant communication. Previously, both the opposition forces acted separately: the Council did not at first recognize forcibly methods of struggle for the overthrow of the Assad regime and insisted that the revolution must go peacefully, and representatives of the CCA stated that the violence of the authorities need to answer the same.
Came a little earlier bad announcements of Turkey: Ankara long read about economic sanctions against the CAP, but did not impose them, since they deal a blow to the Turkish economy, but geopolitical interests have overcome economic judgment. November 30 sanctions were imposed. The Turkish government has blocked the mechanisms of strategic cooperation with Syria, the Syrian bureaucrats and entrepreneurs to prohibit the race in Turkey, frozen cooperation with the Central Bank of ATS, monetary assets of Damascus, etc. In addition, Ahmet Davutoglu said that Turkey could use military force against Syria. Apparently, it is about the development of the so-called "Safety zone" on the border of 2-countries. According to the views of the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, at the Syrian authorities, "acting against its own people, there is no mandate to rule." These announcements have once again confirm the outlook of double master policy of the West and its allies — Ankara pursues a military operation against the Kurds (in the adj
oining areas of the country — Iraq) on its territory exposes the massive repression of Kurds, but the Turkish government in a "bloody" no one blames , not including the Kurds themselves.
So Makar, the regime of Bashar al-Assad in the current time was almost complete diplomatic isolation and the danger of war on two fronts: on-1's, the need to protect the border with Jordan, Turkey, and of Israel, with not all of course — security guarantees no one will , in-2, to fight internal enemies. It is not clear that Iran would be able to provide direct military assistance to Damascus, if the intervention will be developed in a "gentle scenario" — Plainclothes war, the creation of "safe zones".
Hezbollah and Hamas
Management of these movements is not interested in a war with Israel against Syria or for a broad coalition of states. They understand that they are prepared for the role of pawns to donate without any special feelings. They were profitable current situation. Management of the Libyan "party of God" prefers to be limited to the warlike speeches, even though the political impact of the Shia organization in Lebanon headed for historic highs, re-orders completed, firepower strengthened fortifications restored. But if a big war starts, Hezbollah and Hamas will simply crushed Israel's war machine.
Besides Hamas current time is in an uncertain. The Palestinian "Islamic Resistance Movement" refused to support the Assad regime, having lost a year-long financial support of Iran, and is not immediately accepted the proposal of Qatar to support the Syrian opposition. In addition, the command of the Israeli army, concerned about the deteriorating situation in Egypt, the transfer of weapons into Gaza from Libya, the radicalization of Palestinian Arabs over the issue of the recognition of the Palestinian society, the world, thinking about the complete destruction of Hamas. In such a situation Jerusalem to kill the military-political Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip and establish strict control over its border with the Egyptian government. Because Hamas administration is considering redeploying its own headquarters in Jordan.
At the theoretical level, in conjunction Hamas and Hezbollah are able to put up to 100 thousand soldiers and use multiple 10-s of thousands of missiles and short-range missiles acts, there is information that the opponents of Israel and a few 10-s medium-range missiles acts. But Israel can kill a first strike with missiles mid-range offense, and then defeat the combination of these movements. Hamas units owned by low combat capability, and it is not clear that they will have a serious resistance, most just run away. The level of training, armament and combat capability of the compounds of the Lebanese Shiite organization is much higher, but in the event of war in the settlement (if Hezbollah would intervene in the Iranian-Israeli conflict) IDF undoubtedly eliminate the enemy.
The contradictions, the preconditions for a major battle
In practice, we look at how the region's Near and Middle East have developed massive intractable conflicts amicably between countries, unions countries, political parties, movements, ideologies. The situation is somewhat similar to the geo-political situation in front of the first and second world wars.
— West, the Anglo-Saxons against the Islamic world. Antlantisty going to kill Islam as an idea that makes it difficult to build a new world order, one hundred percent discredit Muslims. To do this, destroyed secular authoritarian regimes that combined the ideas of Islam, socialism and capitalism, the power in the country are Islamists. Supported by the construction of the "Sunni Caliphate", which will be a tool in the struggle with India, China, Russia and Europe. Because Syria has long been condemned, the Alawites have to give the Sunnis. Sunnis and Shiites to the pits. The process of starting World War II.
— Israel vs. Iran and the struggle for survival. Iranian management believes that the Jewish government has no right to exist, at least in its current form. For Jerusalem's Islamic Republic "enemy number one", the most powerful enemy in the region, able to recently make a nuclear weapon, and the media for nuclear weapons in Iran already. The Jewish elite is willing to go to war without the help of others to suspend Iran.
At the same time, Israel as a powerful regional political-military force prepared to confront immediately on several fronts, including former partners — Egypt and Turkey. Jerusalem is trying to make the case with Greece, Cyprus, Armenia, the Kurds — Ankara's geopolitical rivals.
Before more unsafe contractions Israel wants to "clean up" of Hamas (the ruling in 2007 in the Gaza Strip, the Palestinian Islamist movement and political organization). Israeli forces and Hamas in the near future exchange blows, the gunmen fired at the Jewish area of the country with rockets and shells, and the IDF air strikes on militant positions and their favorites. Office of the Israel Defense Forces said about wanting to kill this Palestinian movement in the medium term. According to the views of the Israeli military, Hamas militants have received a significant amount of weapons defeated the military forces of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, which occurred after the revolution and war.
— The Arab world against Israel. The collapse of the regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, the gradual strengthening of the position of Islamists in Tunisia, Morocco and Egypt, a surge of radicalism in Palestine, the unrest in Syria — all this and many other reasons lead the region to the latest large-scale Arab-Israeli war. Which in one way or another can take part, and Turkey. The West as required Israel surrender, in 1938 gave Hitler Czechoslovakia. In general, there is a scenario where Israel will implement the plan of creation "Greater Israel." Then the Arabs will have quite bad, the owners of the West is not against a significant reduction of the population of the world population, including the expense of the inhabitants of the Arab world.
— Monarchies of the Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia, and the first of its satellites, Qatar against Syria and Iran. These gentlemen implement a plan to build "the Sunni caliphate," and it needs to crush the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, that Sunni seized power, and to kill Iran. Invitation Riyadh and Doha against Morocco and Jordan (they were called the Union of Arab cooperation of the Gulf (GCC)) makes this company from a regional alliance in the pan-Arab monarchical union. In Tunisia and Egypt, the Saudis and Qataris are betting on the formation of Islamist parliamentary majority and the introduction of Sharia law in the country. In Syria — to dismember the country. In Libya can return the Senussi monarchy, and in Sunni Iraq (under the legal breakup of the country) — the Hashemite monarchy.
Riyadh is considering developing its own nuclear capability by Pakistan. All of the monarchy are the arms race, building up its own defensive and offensive capabilities. Without the help of others, they wage war with Syria and Iran can not, due to the low capability of the armed forces. Their perfect scenario — it's a gradual dismantling of the Assad regime with Turkey and the countries of the West and the U.S. war against Iran, and Israel, where they can play a supporting role. Saudis can later annex the part of the Iranian countryside. Iran behold the dissected between Turkey, Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia, part of the area can add on Afghanistan, Iraq.
— Plans for the creation of a "new Ottoman Empire." Ankara still comes to Sunni bloc directed against Syria and Iran. But the Turks do not want to wage war, especially with Iran, because hope that Iran will be destroyed by the West. Ankara's interests extend to the Crimea, the South and the North Caucasus, the Ba
lkans, the area from Syria and Iraq to North Africa, which were once part of their empire. Recent attacks on Ankara's foreign policy towards Cyprus, European Union, Germany, Greece, Israel, Syria, they say that the Turks are hard at work on the implementation of strategic programs from Turkey to turn to the beginning of the 2020s and a favorite of the Sunni Islamic world, driven political-military and economic power in the region.
Kemalist ideology is uniformly eroded and eliminated from the educational system is the Islamization of the armed forces and the state apparatus. The elements of the Islamic tradition introduced into the municipal practice at the highest level. An old generals, which was the basis of secular Turkey, neutralized. But the army has not infringed the rights, because playing a huge role in the development of "Ottomanism", but only subject to the political elite. The ruling political elite cohesive, well-motivated and supported by a significant segment of society, including the business community, the interests of which promotes and protects Ankara.
Turkey's increasingly active in NATO, defending his own eyes on politics and development. The role of the Turkish country to overthrow the Gaddafi regime in Libya, the military operations in Iraqi Kurdistan, the main role that Turkey can play in removing the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, as in the case of attack on the Islamic republic — all the latest match since the Ottoman Empire. The overthrow of the regime of Ben Ali, Mubarak, Gaddafi has opened the possibility for Ankara to the Turkish expansion in North Africa.
Turkey starts to increase its influence in Palestine, the conflict with Israel because of the difficulty of gas supplies section on the shelf in the eastern Mediterranean. This may result in the Turkish-Israeli conflict or the active assistance of Turkey in the war of the Arabs against the Jewish country.
Crisis processes in the European Union, which lead to its collapse, open for Ankara tremendous ability. Here the role of a bridge for the transit of hydrocarbons to Europe from the Caspian and Middle East, and the opportunity to gain position in the Balkans, and the plans of the New Creation in the European part of Istanbul, Turkey, and laying around the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus channel between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, and so etc.
For the Anglo-Saxons "Ottoman Empire" is fascinating as a "battering ram" against Syria and Iran. Probable "gendarme Near East" and a possible enemy of Russia, who can push a neo-Ottomans through Azerbaijan, Crimea, Greece and Kosovo (Serbia).
— "The Shiite caliphate." Tehran has supported the "Arab Spring" in the hope that the wave of unrest in the Arab world, including the monarchies of the Persian Gulf, will help extend the impact of Iran. Iran supported Shiite performances in Bahrain and the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia. The Iranian administration to appease the perceived fall of the regime of Gaddafi and Mubarak, because of the race for the leadership of the Islamic world were eliminated two contenders. Now their main enemies in the region — it Saudis, Israel and Turkey. Although the Turks Iranians are ready to cooperate if they do not interfere with them, and play with the U.S. and Israel. In Tehran and Ankara have a general enthusiasm in the field of confrontation Kurdish movement in the transit of Iranian natural gas to Europe via Turkey terrain.
— Syria. To the regime of Bashar al-Assad is one main task — to survive. For this you need to suppress the probe Syrian armed gangs to plunge the country into chaos and civilian war did not immediately bring the situation to external intervention. The main enemies — Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and the West. Kind of support can have in Iran, China, and our homeland. But the war on the side of Damascus, they do not perform (there are some doubts about Iran, but Tehran with the "soft intervention" would not interfere in the open).
— The destabilization of the entire region. Long plainclothes war in Somalia, Afghanistan and Iraq, and now in Yemen, the degradation of the economy in a number of countries, the collapse of civilian society and the rapid Islamization in Tunisia, Libya, Morocco and Egypt. The destruction of the Sudan and the ethnic conflict in Northern Sudan and South Sudan and the probable war between the North with South Sudan. Is the activation of Islamist groups, including the Taliban and the different departments "Al-Qaeda", the Somali pirates. In addition, the Islamists got a lot of weapons looted from Libya's arsenals.
The growth of constructive attitudes in the states. Mass, people are becoming more detached from the ordinary civilian life, work — they priuchivayut constantly hold meetings, something to work towards, priuchivayut to the sight of blood, violence. Passionarnost population, especially young people, is increasing. This is particularly well seen by Libya and Egypt, the country of Libya has already begun "exporting revolution" in Syria.
— The unspoken rivalry in the region of China and the United States. China for the stability of the region, as in peacetime Chinese evenly pressed by Westerners. Anglo-Saxons to destabilize and a huge war that will sweep away all the time, or building a peaceful part of their immense. Thus, the destruction of the Sudan and the war in Libya undermined the position of the Chinese there, Beijing must build anew the case.
— Formation of the Anglo-French military alliance that is active and brutal foreign policy in North Africa and the Middle East. This is evident in Libya, Syria and Iran. Statements by the French, British politicians about Syria and Iran show the total loss of a sense of reality and the possibility of health assessment of the situation (the disease can be "cured" by the blood of the aggressor).
— The sharp cooling of relations between the U.S. and Pakistan, in response to which Afghan President Hamid Karzai said that in case of military conflict between them will support Islamabad Kabul, says more about the ability of the appearance of the 1st outbreak of the war on the eastern periphery of the Near and Middle East.
In view of the foregoing, it is clear that war is inevitable, the question is only where it starts and immediately become the world or whether we will see the first series of new local and regional armed conflicts.
For the Russian Federation, it all means the need to address several important questions:
— The development of a global project of its own, alternative Western, Islamic and Chinese, based on social justice and the dictatorship of reason (common sense).
— Restoration of the defense, holding the latest industrialization policy of socialism in domestic politics.
— Creating a constant and temporary alliances on the principle of "the enemy of my enemy — my friend." So, in Eurasia our allies to maintain stability — are China and India, Iran and Syria. China — an ally for the preservation of peace and security in the Asia-Pacific region. In Europe, the need to win over the Germany (and with it, and Austria) and the Slavic countries, Greece. The main opponents on the planet — the U.S., Britain and the Vatican. In the camp of the opponents of the Russian Federation also includes the monarchies of the Persian Gulf. With other countries and civilizations have no insoluble contradictions.
— Creation of the "iron curtain" in order to stop the danger from different kinds of Islamists (neo-Ottoman, Sunni, Wahhabi, etc.) and various Western "values" such as promoting perversion, implementation of juvenile justice, tolerance to evil, etc.